[D9 (RIP)]

Colombia's military is not bad by international standards. Many of them are hardened by combat. They suffer somewhat from the kind of motivational problems that are inherent in non-professional armies within their conscripted units. But the professional units are decent soldiers who don't mind suffering in the field to get to the objective. Some are superb soldiers.

With the exception of some special operations units, NCOs do not have a great deal of responsibility which is a typical pattern outside of our military. There is also evidence that this philosophy is changing because of US influence, which will only improve their forces.

The greatest advantage for Venezuela in a conflict like this is superior equipment and a superior air force. Colombian's are aware of this and frequently bemoan Venezuela's technological edge in air and armor. But most of terrain between the two armies would sharply diminish the viability of air and armor.

I think the Colombians would make the Venezuelans pay too stiff a price for any ingression. I think Chavez knows this. I think he believes we would help Colombian as well if he were to gain the momentum, and I hope his suspicions are right.