[GratefulCitizen]

I've got to echo x-factor.

Causality is a problem.

The amount spent on contractors is an effect.
Presidential popularity is an effect.

You are trying to determine if Presidential popularity is also a cause, and what that cause may affect.

Some problems:

How do you allow for of the other potential causes involved in the amount spent on contractors?
How do you even determine what those causes are?
How do you allow for all of the causes which affect Presidential popularity?

If Presidential popularity affects the amount spent on contractors, are there ancillary issues associated with said spending which, in turn, affect popularity?

Even if there is some correlation, it doesn't necessarily imply a direct relationship.

e.g.,
There is likely a correlation between lung cancer and yellow-stained fingers.
This doesn't mean yellow-stained fingers cause lung cancer.
(nor does correlation mean C02 causes global warming, for that matter...-rant off )


It is an interesting hypothesis which may have merit, but it looks to be quite untestable by the suggested means.