The latest issue of the ASPO newsletter came out, and it seems to have some interesting developments and implications in terms of geopolitics.
I'll provide a few excerpts, along with a link to the full PDF.
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868. Peak Oil hits a political manifesto
The Conservative Party, which is the principal opposition party in Britain, has issued an important report describing its political objectives. The following extract demonstrates an awareness of Peak Oil and its serious impact:
Peak Oil theory refers to the point at which half the world’s accessible oil reserves have been extracted. After crossing this threshold, oil production starts to decline, with future demand outstripping supply. The resulting increase in oil prices has vast economic, social and political implications, with conflict between nations competing for ever-scarcer oil resources. A number of authorities believe that we will have passed the point of world peak oil production in 2008. (Reference furnished by Mark Griffiths)
The issue of "conflict between nations" is likely to be salient to Quiet Professionals.
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871. Oil Price and Financial Chaos
Oil prices rose again during the month to near record levels, as did coal prices, implying that there is very little available spare oil capacity, although price surges are often self-fulfilling as operators and speculators have every financial incentive to build storage in such circumstances. Those with sharp noses will judge the height of the spike and buy forward before opening the tap to drain the tank and depress the price. Volatile trading can be expected as the crisis deepens.
The financial markets continue to be in disarray as debt increasingly loses its collateral. The dollar, which was formerly a prestigious world trading currency in which foreign governments held their savings, is also losing its lustre. Foreign dollar holdings have apparently fallen by 48 billion over the past month. The Bank of England has been forced to prop up a major British mortgage lender, as nervous savers withdraw their savings. The former Chairman of the Federal Reserves has said that interest rates may have to rise to 10% to counter inflation, but interest itself is a form of false money supply, not reflecting goods or services.
Growing numbers of people seem to be perceiving that energy supply is set to decline in the years ahead, which in turn spells a contracting rather than an expanding economy. It is not surprising therefore that debt premised on ever onward expansion loses its illusory collateral. It has been calculated that current oil supply is equivalent in energy terms to that furnished by 22 billion slaves working 24 hours a day.
It is interesting to note the impact of fuel source on naval operations. Crude oil was more energy dense than coal - so the transition by the British fleet provided an advantage. The modern military makes considerable use of petroleum products, so the implications of restricted supply could be significant.
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875. Conflict in Myanmar
It transpires that the recent disturbances in Myanmar (Burma) were triggered by the government’s decision to reduce the subsidy on fuel, such that the cost of diesel has doubled, putting further pressures on the economy.
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LINK