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These people believe in what they are doing. Desperation I don't think factors into their belief system. All is the will of their god. Having said that, I take in mind that the leadership might be thinking something in more logical terms than that of the sheep that follow them.
Overestimating, well, here I would remember that arabs tend to go for the strong guy. A local example, Israel got out of Lebanon, this act in the arab world is considered weakness, and we haven't stop paying for it yet. The tactics used by Hamas and their kind are learned from Hizbollah, and like Hizbollah said would happen, armed resistance will work. And yes, now there is talk of getting out of Gaza. From their perspective we are weak. It does not matter the body count being in our favour. Arabs think in very long term, they are quite patient. We (west) tend to think in short term achievments, (to achieve a goal) and I don't say we are wrong, it is just we also need to understand how they think.
My understanding is, that US forces should kick the shit out of Falujah. I mean go in hard, and kill as many terrorist/fighters as possible, get Sadr and put him on trial. Talking only enhances Sadr's legitimacy, and already the guy is very powerful (the whole world knows him).
We should (as I understand) go into Gaza and do the same thing. I know we do in a limited way, however Israel, although not liked in the world, still has a western concious and this limits our actions. I know what our military is capable of.
Life has a different value/meaning in different parts of the world. I think RL hit a note, when he mentioned the VC. There the communists were able to field 300,000 new soldiers each year (If I am not mistaken) and here to AQ and the like can field large numbers of willing fighters. They are the strong man, and not us, because we don't live with them, they do, we are just visiting, so to speak.
sorry for the ramble...
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