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**Airbornelawyer** · 04-12-2004, 12:56

This is a bit of a gross oversimplification, but among the Shi'ite Arabs of Iraq there are basically three political factions:

1. Those who want some sort of secular democratic system ("separation of mosque and state"). They have a variety of motives, some good, some bad ("take the power away from the mullahs and give it to... me"). They include politicians such as Ahmed Chalabi, Raja Habib al-Khuzaai, Ahmed al-Barak, Wail Abdul Latif and Iyad Allawi.

2. Those who want a system that preserves the preeminence of Islam. They don't mind democracy. The people can elect whomever they want to organize schools and run jails, and to raise the taxes to fund them, as long as Islamic judges get to decide what curriculum is taught and what is a crime. Grand Ayatullah Sistani is just the most prominent voice for that viewpoint.

3. Those who want an Iranian style system where religious leaders run things as sort of a Shi'ite vanguard of the proletariat. Moqtada al-Sadr is the most prominent of these voices. This is not a popular position, even among Iraqi Shi'ite clerics, who generally reject the late Iranian Ayatollah Khomeini's political philosophy. But al-Sadr and people like him make up for unpopularity by militancy and money. They are funded by Iranians and, like good Bolsheviks, know how to make up for their relatively small numbers.

Abdel-Aziz al-Hakim, head of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and its armed wing, the Badr Brigades, shares this viewpoint but has been more pragmatic, working within the IGC and waiting for the Americans to leave. Al-Hakim also probably hates Moqtada al-Sadr, since al-Sadr's people likely killed not only Ayatollah al-Khoei last April, for which an arrest warrant has been issued, but also al-Hakim's brother, Ayatullah Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim last August. Al-Sadr was also reportedly behind the attempted assassination of Abdel-Aziz al-Hakim's uncle Grand Ayatullah Sayyid Sa'id al-Hakim.

One thing which may affect the timing of al-Sadr's uprising, and our response, is his relationship with these other factions. We need to bring him down, but not at the cost of strengthening SCIRI or Sistani to too great an extent (getting rid of al-Sadr will inevitably strengthen them; the question is to what extent).

Another factor in the timing and the attitude of the parties in categories 2 and 3 is that there have been a series of local elections to town councils and the like in parts of Iraq, especially the predominantly Shi'te Dhi Qar province (around an-Nasariyyah), and secular parties have beaten Islamist parties in most of them.

04-12-2004, 12:56	#34
Airbornelawyer Moderator Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 1,952	This is a bit of a gross oversimplification, but among the Shi'ite Arabs of Iraq there are basically three political factions: 1. Those who want some sort of secular democratic system ("separation of mosque and state"). They have a variety of motives, some good, some bad ("take the power away from the mullahs and give it to... me"). They include politicians such as Ahmed Chalabi, Raja Habib al-Khuzaai, Ahmed al-Barak, Wail Abdul Latif and Iyad Allawi. 2. Those who want a system that preserves the preeminence of Islam. They don't mind democracy. The people can elect whomever they want to organize schools and run jails, and to raise the taxes to fund them, as long as Islamic judges get to decide what curriculum is taught and what is a crime. Grand Ayatullah Sistani is just the most prominent voice for that viewpoint. 3. Those who want an Iranian style system where religious leaders run things as sort of a Shi'ite vanguard of the proletariat. Moqtada al-Sadr is the most prominent of these voices. This is not a popular position, even among Iraqi Shi'ite clerics, who generally reject the late Iranian Ayatollah Khomeini's political philosophy. But al-Sadr and people like him make up for unpopularity by militancy and money. They are funded by Iranians and, like good Bolsheviks, know how to make up for their relatively small numbers. Abdel-Aziz al-Hakim, head of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and its armed wing, the Badr Brigades, shares this viewpoint but has been more pragmatic, working within the IGC and waiting for the Americans to leave. Al-Hakim also probably hates Moqtada al-Sadr, since al-Sadr's people likely killed not only Ayatollah al-Khoei last April, for which an arrest warrant has been issued, but also al-Hakim's brother, Ayatullah Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim last August. Al-Sadr was also reportedly behind the attempted assassination of Abdel-Aziz al-Hakim's uncle Grand Ayatullah Sayyid Sa'id al-Hakim. One thing which may affect the timing of al-Sadr's uprising, and our response, is his relationship with these other factions. We need to bring him down, but not at the cost of strengthening SCIRI or Sistani to too great an extent (getting rid of al-Sadr will inevitably strengthen them; the question is to what extent). Another factor in the timing and the attitude of the parties in categories 2 and 3 is that there have been a series of local elections to town councils and the like in parts of Iraq, especially the predominantly Shi'te Dhi Qar province (around an-Nasariyyah), and secular parties have beaten Islamist parties in most of them.
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