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Originally posted by NousDefionsDoc
I'm a little frustrated because I don't know as much as about the area as I wish I did, and I can't seem to figure out what they are thinking. They seem to be fairly simple in their strategic approaches most of the time, then they throw in something that makes absolutely no sense to me.
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I think you are wrong about not knowing the situation. It was you who stated a while back and I'm paraphrasing here "the Southern part of Iraq is already basically under Sharia Law." For the most part.
Whilst, the crminal and jihadi aspects are also obvious reasons to attack now, I think when you say they saw what the June 30th handover might mean and they don't like it. I think there are enough people (not the majority perhaps) on the Shia side who do not like the compromises made in the consitution and might be worried that the hand-over date will simply make it harder to change than if they act now.
Honestly, I don't think they understood how strong our resolve would be. I remember hearing that Saddam passed around copies of BHD to his people in the run-up to the war. Now, I have nothing to support that, but it is somewhat understandable because for quite some time people have thought that if they inflict enough damage to US troops and it gets enough press, the public will force a pull-out.
In my estimation, if that is what they were thinking, they made a grave miscalculation. Though, I could also be very wrong.