I think Bob McKenzie's analysis is spot on, but I'm still giddy about this trade.
http://www.tsn.ca/tsn_talent/columnists/bob_mckenzie/
9/29/2006 4:11:51 PM
Hockey trades are rarely as great or as poor as they're initially made out to be and so it likely is with today's dealing of Jack Johnson by the Carolina Hurricanes.
The initial reaction is that the Hurricanes got fleeced when they sent defenceman Oleg Tverdovsky and the rights to Johnson, who was the third overall pick in the 2005 entry draft, to Los Angeles for defenceman Tim Gleason and centre Eric Belanger.
And if Johnson, who is obviously a blue-chip prospect, turns out to be the next Dion Phaneuf, well, then Sept. 29th will be a day Hurricanes' GM Jim Rutherford comes to regret.
But anyone who thinks Gleason and Belanger are no more than a bag of pucks, think again. This transaction is not nearly as lopsided as some are making it.
Gleason, who will be 25 in January, is entering his fifth pro season. A first-round pick of the Ottawa Senators, Gleason is a solid defensive defenceman with outstanding mobility. At 6-foot-1, 215 pounds, he has some physical presence and isn't afraid to use it. It is not a stretch to say he's an excellent skater. He will not put up any significant offensive numbers, but this a young player with character. The scouting report on him is that he's a mentally tough individual who has leadership skills and is future captain material.
Gleason will no doubt play in the Hurricanes' top four on defence, especially in light of Frantisek Kaberle's prolonged absence because of shoulder surgery. Gleason isn't so much a replacement for Kaberle, in terms of style, as he is a fit to fill the void created by the departure of Aaron Ward to unrestricted free agency and the New York Rangers.
As for Belanger, the soon to be 29 year old is a prototypical third-line two-way centre. He's a 15 to 20 goal man, probably a 40-point player but he plays a complete game. He's good on faceoffs, can kill penalties, has good defensive awareness, sort of a poor man's Guy Carbonneau, perhaps in the mold of a former teammate, Ian Laperriere, now with the Colorado Avalanche.
Belanger will walk into the third-line centre spot on the Hurricanes, a nice addition behind Eric Staal and Rod Brind'Amour. For a team that lost Matt Cullen, Doug Weight, Josef Vasicek and Mark Recchi from the Cup-winning lineup, and may be without Cory Stillman for most of not all of the season, adding a solid NHL veteran like Belanger is crucial to any success they are to have this season. As is the addition of Gleason on the blueline.
And, really, that's what a lot of people who are panning this move as lunacy don't understand.
The Hurricanes are defending Stanley Cup champions. They have a very good nucleus with Staal, Justin Williams, Erik Cole, Brind'Amour but between injuries and free agency, they lost a lot of their depth. It would be foolish for the Hurricanes to think only of the present, but it's imperative for them not to backslide this season if they hope to capitalize on their momentum in their marketplace. Gleason and Belanger will pay immediate dividends and give the Canes a fighting chance to defend their title.
And yet they can hardly be accused of mortgaging their future.
It's not as if the Canes didn't attempt to land Johnson. They tried to sign him after the 2005 draft, but Johnson's No. 1 hockey dream was to play at the University of Michigan, so he went off to his freshman year. When Michigan's season ended and the Canes were gearing up for the playoffs, they tried again, but Johnson, saying he didn't feel he was ready and that he had unfinished business at Michigan, said no again. Just recently, with Ward gone to the Rangers and Kaberle down for most of the year and an acute need on defence, the Canes tried a third time. Again, Johnson chose to stay in Michigan.
Hey, there's nothing wrong with that. Johnson knows best when he's ready, willing and able to go, but the Hurricanes had holes to fill, so they acted.
Now, by anyone's standards, Johnson is a blue-chipper. He's a big, strong, fast-skating, hard shooting, nasty, point-producing defenceman with a larger than life personality. He is going to have a chance to be a No. 1 or No. 2 defenceman in the NHL for a very long time. And for the Kings, who are in that middle ground where they're trying to rebuild with youth without sacrificing their competitiveness now, he's a great addition.
But as with any young defenceman there's bound to be a learning curve. The gap between potential and performance, especially those who are tagged for brilliance, is often a large one that takes time to close.
One of the very few knocks on Big Jack is that he isn't great at reading the play, that he's a runner and a racer who often takes himself out of position to make big hits and that he's going to be a work in progress. No doubt, there is much he has to learn.
Regardless, the kid is going to be a player, but for the Eastern Conference contending Hurricanes, that wasn't going to happen this season and even if he did turn pro for them next season, there's no guarantee that for all his potential, he would be able to step in immediately as a top-four defender for Carolina.
So when the Canes weighed their current deficiences on the blueline, and up front, versus what Johnson could give them when he finally decided to turn pro, versus what they can do now with Gleason and Belanger in the lineup, Rutherford opted for the here and now.
And let's not forget the departure of Tverdovsky to L.A. The Russian blueliner proved last season he couldn't be an everyday player for the Hurricanes, despite the fact they were paying him $2.5 million. He has another two years on his contract at $2.5 million per, so the Canes have freed up that much cap space should they choose to go out and get another player. Tverdovsky may fit better with Marc Crawford's attack-first mentality with the Kings, where Crawford likes the defencemen to jump into the attack, but if Tverdovsky turns out to be a bust in L.A., they'll just ship him to the minors, pay his salary and get the credit against the cap.
Tverdovsky's salary was the premium L.A. had to pay to get Johnson, and because Johnson is such a good prospect, the Kings were comfortable with that outlay.
So if Johnson turns out to be a Norris Trophy winner and the Canes miss the playoffs this year, we can say it was a ridiculously lopsided deal in Los Angeles's favor. But until that happens, this deal may not be nearly so bad for Carolina as many are making it out be.
What will be interesting now is whether the Kings are any more successful than the Canes at trying to pry Johnson out of college.
At first blush, it's doubtful. Johnson grew up with a hockey dream of winning an NCAA championship at Michigan. He has stated unequivocally that he's not leaving his college team at the ''11th hour'' and the Kings are no doubt fine with that.
But of all the teams to own his rights, Los Angeles must make Michigan head coach Red Berenson a little nervous. The Kings signed Mike Camalleri out of Michigan before he graduated. Ditto for Wolverine alum Jeff Tambellini. And Trevor Lewis, the Kings' first rounder last summer, decided to forego his commitment to Michigan to turn pro. He's currently playing with the Owen Sound Attack of the OHL.
The smart money says Johnson stays at Michigan for at least his sophomore season, but stranger things have happened.
In any case, it's going to be interesting to evaluate and re-evaluate this trade and one suspects we're going to need a lot more time to do that than the few hours since it happened.
For TSN.ca, I'm Bob McKenzie.