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If we are successful at democracizing Iraq, it will spread to the surrounding nations, probably Iran first. It will take years, and will be incremental, but is close to inevitable because of economic reasons, not cultural reasons. Cultures find ways to accept things, to adjust to things, when it directly affects the quality of life for their children. You can look at South East Asia for examples (where Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and China have all adopted many western norms and local democracy despite the Communist infrastructure... because of market issues).
The question becomes whether we can successfully sheppard a representative form of government forward in Iraq, and I think we can IF the people involved are creative in how they arrange the balance of power and the checks and balances in order to allow the people to feel their culture has been respected and at the same time limit the religious power in the government.
Tribes have been brought together before in democratic federations, no reason that Iraq cannot be.
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