[Spook]

This is just my 2 cents...

I think that AQ in Iraq have overstayed there welcome in country. They're now seen by the general population as an insurgency that indiscriminately targets fellow followers of Islam, where as the other insurgencies primarily target US Mil and/or contract workers from the west...or those Iraqis supporting the new govt. I think AQ in Iraq took a huge gamble when it began to try and incite a civil war between the religious factions over there...and what we're seeing now is the negative effect of a failed attempt and the beginning decline of any support the group may have had from the indigenous people of Iraq.

If you look at their original attacks, they were initially well planned, precise and carried out against specific targets of high value, both politically and economically. Then the group seemed to slacken the leash a bit and venture off that path and strike at targets of opportunity as well as specifics. In stark contrast, it would seem as if they now use more of a carpet bombing approach to their Ops, blowing up who and whatever they can to get the medias attention and maintain a presence at the table over there.

I think they have cheapened their actions compared to how they originally came onto the scene, if I may equate it to a boxer, they started out with a game plan and in round 1 were throwing and landing well-placed jabs...keeping their opponent at a distance so as to not get hit. Round 2 we saw them begin to put up there guard and the jab faded a bit as they tried to throw some combinations, enabling them to be struck in return. Round 3 they came out swinging all over the place, landing a lot of punches but with little behind them while looking a bit weak in the kness. We all know what happens to these kinds of guys in the 4th round...they get KO'ed.

Could this be because of a fatal error in miscalculating the Iraqi's (as well as it's neighbors in the region) and it's other insurgents views on AQ in Iraq trying to encite a factional-civil war? Is AQ in Iraq being seen by Iraqis as another form of a Saddam-type of repressive regime in it's treatment of the people...killing innocent Muslim women, children and old men? Is this a sign that we're hitting AQ in Iraqs top men and crippling it's decision and planning abilities, hindering it's operational capabilities and waining Iraqi support for the group. Or is this another grab for power by a different group or coalition of insurgencies, if you will, that don't respect the tactics and decisions of militants in Iraq from across it's borders? Are we seeing the aftermath of some relations that have been strained and are now beginning to come apart within the ranks of AQ in Iraq, a small portion of the group beginning to carry out these attacks...possibly without the support of the majority of the group...a splinter cell if you will?

Whatever the reasons, this is an interesting string of events that has recently surfaced and seems a pivitol point for whomever wants after the reigns of power.

I think we're seeing a combination of all of the above, based on my own time spent in the AO and understanding of the situation in country, coupled with intel that I follow from S-3.

I'd like to know what the QPs think...?