Is Osama Bin Had?
 

Is Osama Bin Had?

The last communique from the Al Queda leadership was from Ayman Al-Zawahiri on August 4, 2005. I believe the last video or audio tape from Bin Laden was around the time of the Tsunami.

1. Is he dead?
2. Is the pressure so intense that he fears technology will betray his location if he releases another tape?
3. Is he incapacitated mentally or physically?
:munchin

Interesting questions CoLawman

I'll take the liberty of adding another and will then settle back and wait for the discussion to happen:

Would it make any difference to the GWOT if OBL was either 1, 2 or 3 above?

Take care...

G

GWOL? I thought it was GSAVE... :D
http://www.professionalsoldiers.com/...ead.php?t=7689

Good observation CoLawman. I really hope that we will have the pleasure of seeing his ugly face on National News after digging him out of whatever hole he is hiding in, a la Saddam Hussein. Although I'll settle for hearing about his death by various illness or other more violent means.

As for OBL (and hopefully AAZ) becoming dead, I think it would make a difference in several ways.

First, Al Qeida would become a different organization. New Boss, New Rules. That sort of thing. Can't really say what would change, but the possibilities are endless in an evil organization like AQ.

Second, I think that AQ would lose some support as many people idolize Bin Laden rather than the organization itself. Unless a new, equally popular leader took his place, the people (i.e. the so called "Arab Street") would probably care a little bit less about what happens to AQ. Of course, the alternative would be to have an unknown step up and become popular by pulling off an attack the size and scope of 9/11. (Not a very happy thought)

Third, I think it could dramatically affect what we do, as we respond to what AQ does. Thus, if AQ decides to make Canada its new home, we would have to do something about it. Thus, any changes in strategy or deployment caused by change in leadership, would have to be met by us.

Fourth, and I think this would be the biggest problem that would affect us: The liberals would say we won the GWOT (or GSAVE, or whatever) and can now bring all our troops home. "After all," the liberals would say, "Bin Laden did 9/11. If he's dead, the war's over, we need to bring our troops home, etc." This would be picked up by the Liberal News Media and used as a political tool to turn the country's opinion against the war and George W. Bush.

Thoughts?
Aric

If he is dead, I hope that the body is never found. A big, flashy exit would only enhance his status as a folk hero in the Muslim world. :mad:

There are some on here that think he's already made a "flashy exit".... ;)

I for one think hes dead. As far as I know no one has "confirmed" a video tape for years now.....

TS, I hope that you are right! Now, if only Zarqawi's crew would try to follow through on their big talk to the Saudis, we'd probably get to see a whole lot of flashy exits. :)

I believe that it will momentous when OBL is captured or killed. Without him the institution does not exist. Sure Zarwahiri will need to be taken care of but OBL is the Institution. He is the Money man, the inspiration, the logistician, and most important, the patriarch of AQ.

He is surely the head of the snake, and the beheading kills the snake. Yes there will be others who attempt to take the reins using him as a martyr, but with nowhere near the success.

Getting a little of subject, the same can be said for Zarquawi. His demise is a crippling blow to the insurgency in Iraq. Again I understand the individual cells that have been called sleeper cells act independent of the leadership. But 9/11 tells us differently. The entire network was enabled and reliant upon OBL to be successful. Read the evidence against OBL in his indictment for 9/11 to understand this point.

Now back to the original question? Why have we not heard from OBL? In fact, why have we not heard from him even though Dr. Zarwahiri stated we would hear from him?

I know a little about fugitives and the accompanying psycholigical impact brought about by being the hunted. It takes a physiological toll on them brought about by psychological stimulus known as STRESS. Look at how debilitating Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome can effect a person. This guy, at a minimum, is delusional in his distrust of everyone (i.e. Hitler) His cardio system is negatively impacted as is his immune system. Put it all together and this is not a healthy 40 some year old. I believe the lack of any communication from him suggests one of the three previous listed possibilities. Just my two cents.

Thoughts ? :munchin

Oops was composing and JATX and TS posted while I was composing. Will think about what TS said.

Um, just a quick question.

When 9/11 happened, it was reported he has kidney failure and must use a dialysis machine.

That was 4 yrs ago.

Was that true? And if so, what is the life expectancy of a fugitive, living in one of the poorer areas of the world, with access to medical assistance limited, and under stress?

:munchin

TS, to believe he is dead, one is required to disregard statements from the likes of Tom Ridge and Jack Straw that insinuate he is alive based on analysis of previous released tapes.

I will be the first to admit that I am the lay person who sits mouth agape 10 years later when it comes out that OBL was a CIA operative......etc. etc...... But in this instance I would think the knowledge of his death would be beneficial to the GWOT (Aric, don't start...), see my previous post.

In fact I would be willing to bet you a 3 night stay in the Ramkota Inn that those were authentic OBL tapes. :p

Maisy, I had completely forgot about that! I do not know that any credible source confirmed he suffered from Renal failure. I will do some research to locate a confirm of deny. No medic but that would hasten his demise and then I would be inclined to side with TS and foot the bill for the Ramkota Inn. :confused:

IMO, this is a misconception. Just as there is no "one" islamic leader, there is no "one" al-qaeda leader. Killing the head of the snake as it were, will not put an end this organization as we know it.

Also the money trail does not start or stop with OBL, he’s just another lunatic that many islamic idiots are funding/contributing to what they consider as the "war against the unbelievers".

If al-qaeda were gone tomorrow there would/will be another islamic extremist group prepared to strap bombs to kids for the "cause".

This is not going to end in our life time.

Team Sergeant= An Unbeliever

At the end of this month, I'll pose the question again, but I've already heard it a few times over, he-be-gone !!!

It is in our best interest that his passing is unknown !!! Leave them waiting to hear from their "Leader" for advice/direction !!! That will make that time WASTED and not regrouping !! If they do follow my thought and someone steps forward to lead the Re-group, then "OBL" will dispatch warning shot, one each, through temple !!! :D

Later.
Martin

And just for good measure, the 2003 war in Iraq, when we were handing the islamic extremists their collective asses where was OBL then? We had islamic lunatics from around the WORLD coming to Iraq to fight (and die) for the “cause”.

If there was ever a time to rally the troops this was the moment and OBL was no where to be found, no where. This and no other reason do I believe he is long dead and has been for quite some time.

The Unbeliever ;)

With all due respect, We can win this war, and in short order with the appropriate people incinerated. OBL and his mad doctor and Zarqawi's demise results in a disabling victory against the MAIN terrorist threat. I may be an optimist and for years formed my opinions based on Reader's Digest, but of late have taken a very serious and personal interest in terrorists.

I look to the break up of the Soviet Union, in our life time, as a perfect example of the impossible becoming possible.

The terrorist organizations are not on the same level as the once powerful Soviet Union and should take far less time to dismantle. I am particularly and probably more focused on terrorist organizations of late.

I understand the long history of Hamas and the PLO warring with Israel. I am familiar with the IRA and the conflicts involved there. Being Irish Catholic I refrain from drawing conclusions on who was at fault ;) . But these examples I do not compare to OUR GWOT.

But.......I am always learning, especially from all the participants on this site. Well most participants, I briefly forgot about Front.......never mind.

OK, just to throw more fuel on the fire...

I read somewhere that OBL and Saddam hated each other with a fire fiecer than the might of a nuclear explosion (or words to that effect :D ) and that if Saddam, and by extension Iraq, were on fire, OBL would not p*** on him.

If so, would that explain why OBL himself has not been seen anywhere near there, although other members of AQ have?
:munchin