Ukraine says Russian aid convoy won't be let in
 

JMHO, but it looks like there are entirely too many fingers on too many triggers, and somebody is going fart and end up with a faux pas in their pants.

Is this really the only card Putin has left to play?

I mean.....the old, "we'll send in an aid convoy and hope you don't see the supplies for our 'advisers'".....trick.

What was he hoping to gain? Is he that deceived by his own intelligence complex or this desperate that he's just trying "stuff".

I'm honestly confused.

S

I'm wondering if berry & vlad are trying to hook the UN into this pig-pen.

vlad : "if we offer aid(he he he), maybe we can get the UN to deliver it with protection??"

berry : "if the UN say I CAN PAY FOR AND DELIVER the aid, I can claim victory,, and create another mess to blame on BUSH and dump on hilbilly when she gets elected by the harry and the supreme proletariat??"


Just my $00.0002

:munchin

Watch that short little POS. He'll be loading up PRC LNG tankers from Crimea and selling them gas using a different currency than dollars.

Wouldn't put anything past our Dear Leader for Life or Putin, but what if Vlad doesn't know what his generals are doing anymore. Could things be that screwed up?

:confused:

Putin wants the Ukrainians to block the aid. This will escalate the crisis and allow him to intervene in the "humanitarian crisis" to "save" the poor downtrodden ethnic Russians.

Like I've said to many already. Putin is playing master chess in Ukraine, while BHO is still learning how to play the game of checkers...he (Putin) is so many levels and moves ahead of this dumbass administration it's just pure luck if they get something right.

In the end, Putin will have achieved everything he wanted and the US and Kiev will say they won because Ukraine is now at the peace table and negotiations are taking place to restore trade and fuel deliveries to Europe.

Ultimately, Putin will have unfettered access to the Black Sea, and it will be business as usual.

JMHO

Ukraine At War
 

I've followed a Ukrainian sourced site since the MH17 shoot down. There are many photos, twitter feeds and other forms of media consolidated into this single site. Whoever is behind it is definitely doing their homework and organizing some effort to show anyone who cares to know what is happening in their corner of the world.

As for Putin playing chess, I'd say he's definitely moving his knights into place.

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.com/

DYIPatriot -

Regardless of who's posting what (myself included) and from whatever POV they stand on, Ukraine is and has been "at war" for some time now. It would appear to me from my limited and somewhat, I don't personally care enough to follow along with western news reports of it being a one sided engagement. It appears that the West has infused the new Ukrainian government and military with sufficient money and training to carry out an aggressive civil war campaign against any remaining Russian strongholds in the eastern Ukrainian countryside.

It would seem too, that no one cared until MK17 was shot down and brought this civil war home to more people around the world.

Now picture this, (hypothetical of course) Canada decides to reclaim the northern territories and parts of Alaska that are rich in minerals and oil, they send in a strong and sophisticated military force to displace the long time American residences of that area and the Canadians are supported by the native population that calls this area home as well. It's a stalemate until the Americans start fighting back to keep what they believe to be their rightful homeland and that which belongs to them from ancestry dating back several generations of labor to work in the area that was otherwise cast aside years ago as worthless marshes and frozen tundra.

Which side of the fence does the US government take now? Support the ethnic Americans and secure the vital minerals and oil fields from Canadian control, lose the ports and oil facilities in the North Sea?

I think not, and that is the game Putin is playing for. He won Crimea while the US and the world was busy watching the Olympics, and Kiev burned, his ultimate victory will be the secession of Eastern Ukraine as a negotiation to the west and Europe as a compromise to trade agreements and fuel deliveries that Europe desperately needs.

Again, JMHO

ETA: as I typed this out a news banner flashed saying the Ukrainian military just stomped the sh!t out of a Russian convoy...expect more escalation to follow and Russia will not back down.

You make a very good point regarding Canada/Alaska/US. When I posted the blogspot site, I didn't intend for it to come across that I support one side versus another. I'm certainly not up to speed and as read in on the underlying details of Russian/Ukrainian relations as those of you who've BTDT. Still, I try to stuff my brain with as much info as I can - hopefully, correct info.

With that being said, I find it interesting when people on the ground show their side and POV as it unfolds around them. My intent was certainly not to come across that I was picking a side - just sharing some info from one of the sides. I appreciate your info, too. I learn a great deal from your posts, as well as Warrior Diplomat, TS, TR, Trapper John and many, many others.

I didn't think you were...but the twitter et all postings are clearly showing one POV - Ukrainian.

I think that also shows that Ukraine is controlling the media coming out of Eastern Ukraine, suppressing the rebels external communications.

I'm not in support of nor care how this ends. Just don't want to see a return of the Cold-War.

Ditto - with all the sanctions and other actions taking place between Russia/EU/US, it certainly has the look and feel

ODNT: A really good illustration.

Question: What are the chess pieces?

Three thoughts: Russian mindset. I wonder if the Russian soldiers, the combat soldier, not the SF guy or KGB’er, but the conscript in the field; does he/she have the mindset to sustain a prolonged and brutal conflict? Damn right it’d be a big mistake to imagine that they do not but I bet the generals wonder the same thing. However it is IMHO one of the chess pieces with its own caps and lims. The Ukrainian has his back to the wall and fighting for the homeland (maybe).

Another thought is economic: BRICS: This warm-water Crimean access affords the Russians an economic port to ship a lot of their petroleum to South America, the PRC (who are always looking for energy (oil, LNG, etc)), and to an energy-hungry world market without paying homage to anybody using US dollars. BRICS as an economic backdrop that is another chess piece. This is as good a time as any to give the finger to the US dollar as the only world currency. Would Brazil, India, China go along? They might if the economic climate looks good. BRICS would also allow the Russians to keep their store open, and buy their winter foodstuffs from Brazil and Argentina, something Argentina would love about now. Expensive for the Russians, yes, but it would reduce the suffering at home this winter while the fight goes on.

Another non sequitur is the Russian military leadership. Is Putin controlling the day-to-day tactics or are his generals? Is Putin going down the same road that LBJ did in VN? Russia has most always been strongly centralized in the way they control their military. I know that’s a broad consideration, but somewhere I think it fits into the calculus. Putin is a KGBer, but not a GRUer, and I wonder how much his generals trust him to cover their backs while this piss storm goes on.

History will ultimately know, but IMHO it don’t know yet.

Good question. I really don't know. The Kremlin lost a powerful piece when the ruling "Russian" elect., President or PM of Ukraine, was ousted from Kiev last year after only one year in power. The soldiers and rebels in this are all pons being used and will ultimately get blamed for shooting down MK17. I don't think Putin is controlling the strings, the puppet masters are more powerful then him, and obviously have a great many generals over for dinner and late night objective planning. Putin may be the "King" but the "Queen" is running the show...my guess is that would be an oil man with very deep pockets and big ideas.

I think have to go back to why Russia invaded Afghanistan and ultimately the losses of other bordering countries to as you speak - a warm water port.

Syria has always been in that mix, but war there has changed the usefulness.