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Romney's path to 270
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art..._113755-2.html
Judging by the polls thus far, it appears as though Romney (at this stage I'm all but certain he'll be the GOP nominee) will face a considerably uphill battle to winning 270 electoral votes in November. Obama has consistently possessed a lead over him in crucial states like Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and even Florida (albeit barely). Granted, it is definitely too early to pay all that much attention to the polls as a lot can and probably will happen between now and Election Day. Nevertheless, for now Obama possesses an easier path towards an electoral victory. I have a gut feeling that, just like in 2000, the Sunshine State will decide the outcome... |
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Big Teddy :munchin |
It's still really early. Most Americans don't tune into Presidential elections until after Labor Day. In 2008 polls at this point had Bush losing to Kerry and in 1992 Bush Sr. had a comfortable edge over Clinton. I don't think Romney is a particularly strong candidate but it's far too early to predict how he'll fare in a general election.
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Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida.
Those will be the critical ones. This guy's been pretty accurate in the past: http://www.electionprojection.com/20...resident12.php |
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From what I have observed so far, Romney unfortunately seems to share some similarities to certain other politicians from the Bay State. Just as he has been in the primary, he'll once again be attacked as a "flip-flopper" (like Kerry) and may have trouble with his image and suffer from a lack of charisma and authenticity (like Dukakis AND Kerry). As this election will almost certainly be decided by swing voters, that's a potentially significant roadblock. And Dusty is absolutely right, a large amount of people are going to vote against #44 instead of for Romney. Count me in that group... |
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Make sure it's the Jameson's 12 year old Reserve.......;):D Big Teddy :munchin |
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