New Battleground Poll Released
 

I like this one because it is done jointly by a Republican and a Democrat, and because I like the Tarrance Group.

Most interesting number to me is that nearly 50% of those surveyed believe strongly that the country is off on the "wrong track." This is, IMO, the most important indicator of how an election is going to go for an incumbent. Lots of other interesting things too, but I'll see what people are most interested in before commenting further.

http://www.tarrance.com/pdf/9701Q.pdf

For analyses, see:

http://www.tarrance.com/pdf/04DemocraticAnalysis.pdf
http://www.tarrance.com/pdf/GOPAnalysis.pdf

And if you want user-friendly charts, try this:

http://www.tarrance.com/pdf/9701BGCharts.pdf

Re: New Battleground Poll Released
 

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Roguish Lawyer
Most interesting number to me is that nearly 50% of those surveyed believe strongly that the country is off on the "wrong track." [QUOTE/]

I thought I read another poll stating that that same 50% also watch Jerry Springer.

I like the 1% who are "likely" to vote, but have never heard of the Republican Party.

TR

Along this line, would it be a good idea to run a poll to see
how many people in this group have ever been involved
in an election poll? (excluding this one).

Statistically, if you have 100 people in a room, there is a
99% chance two people have the same birth day (notice
I didn't say birth date). However, I am willing to
bet few or none of the members on this board have ever
been called to answer a poll.

There are 400+ members on this board.

I will donate $50 to SOWF if more than 10 people
on this board have ever been called in a nationally
organised poll.

That's what I think of polls.

I've never been called or approached for a politically based poll.

Pshaw! Like anybody would ask me what I think.

I have been polled before. I also have designed and overseen polls.

The birthday statistic does not apply in this situation. That probability is factorial based, and the variable is independent (one persons birthday has no effect on the other persons birthday). The poll is a matter of taking a very small representative subset of a very large population. The variable is dependant (if NDD is selected for the poll, the probability of the Team Sergeant being selected for the poll goes down by 1).

WTH is Double Optimism? gimme some of that.

Its no good - 40% of the respondents are between 45 and 64. Of course they're going to be more concerned about health care, their investments and losing their jobs.

38% of the voters in 2000 were between 45-64 years old

http://www.census.gov/population/www...g/p20-542.html

I fall into that age group (just barely but there you have it) however I am more worried about the BGs and the GWOT...won't have to worry about all the other if we get some clown in office like sKerry.

I've never been called for a political poll btw.

Never been polled here, wife doesn't even want to know what i think...

No poll here

They have called me a few times, I always hang up on them.

The poll is of people who are likely to vote. So it's actually very good. People who don't vote don't count.

This is why social security is so f'd up.