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The Reaper 07-13-2006 08:23

Pete hit the nail on the head.

Turn your power off for a day or two and see how you will get by.

Most would be surprised how often you continue reaching for that switch when you enter a room, even after a day without electricity.

If the H5N1 projections are correct, this could be a temporary disruption in services with a potentially significant casualty list. It may not be the end of the world as we know it. The projections showed waves at regular intervals, so it will likely not be complete loss of resources continuously for years. Those who have 90 days or so of supply should be able to make it through the three waves without having to compete with the panic buyers after the first wave hits.

As far as stay or go, for those who are building a fortress, most residences will burn and burn quickly. If you are going to bunker up and hunker down in a metropolitan area, you better have 24/7 security and once hostilities start, keep people out of hand grenade/Molotov range.

Those who plan to evacuate better look at the hurricane traffic jams and do it early. There is no doubt that if things degenerate to a societal breakdown, roadblocks, roving gangs, etc. will make highway travel exciting and journeys of more than a few miles impossible.

I hope that it does not get to that, but if you look at NYC, the odds of surviving a disaster in a city with millions of people and no natural resources, or getting onto one of the routes out after trouble starts and making it out successfully is very likely close to zero. I wouldn't count on getting a lot after the first HTH epidemic wave starts.

The key will be having a plan with trigger events on a timetable and executing BEFORE things go very far downhill. If it is a false alarm, you burned a little gas and maybe missed a day or two of work.

The important thing is to have a realistic plan and rehearse it, then remain flexible.

TR

jasonglh 07-13-2006 10:58

With the crappy utility service I have here we loose power for 2-3 days every couple of months anyway. I am the last house on this dead end road and I think maybe the transformer or whatever was never upgraded when they added all the new houses on the other end. Downside of living in the woods at the edge of civilizaation not enough squeaky wheels to get good service.

MAB32 07-13-2006 11:33

Also, just FYI, the power outage that had affected almost the entire Northeast resulted from a simple glich in the computer that is about 5 miles from where I live. First Energy took a hit as did the city of Akron from everybody in New York City for this power outage. What we have here is one single thing going wrong and a very large portion of the Northeast suffer from it. This means that you don't have to be near a disaster in order to have it affect you. 100's of miles away could affect you now. Just my 2 cents.

The Reaper 07-13-2006 11:50

The grid is overloaded, inadequately upgraded, lacks redundancy, and is a time bomb ticking. Take a clue and be prepared.

You can either make your own electricity, or be ready to get by without it. IMHO, living without it for more than an hour or two is very inconvenient and uncomfortable.

Remember that when the lights go out, the roaches come out of the woodwork, at the human level as well as the insect.

Hence the need for a defensive plan and preparation.

Jason, if I lost power that often, I would write the utility company a letter and cc the state utility commission. I would also be ready for the next time they went out. At the same time, you sound like you are out of the high-traffic area refugees and criminals prefer.

TR

mugwump 07-13-2006 12:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pete

Think of it as an adventure.

Pete

I have a hard enough time keeping the air conditioning off when the temp hits 80F. The spousal unit is not into adeventure.

mugwump

Pete 07-13-2006 12:34

House Boss
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mugwump
....The spousal unit is not into adeventure.

mugwump

The House Boss over here gives me some odd looks now and again but just so long as I spend my money on prep work it's OK.

Although she did say her idea of roughing it was Motel 6 and I had better be ready to cough up that level of comfort when needed, again on my dime.

Pete

JGarcia 07-13-2006 13:11

RE: the non-bullet stopping nature of houses

There are 'bullet proof' wall board panels you can buy in varying thicknesses and degrees of protection. They use UL and NIJ ratings and some of them have been 'R' value tested. Some of the brand names are armorcore, and secureall. I have no idea what they cost - I just wanted to point out that they are available. Woulda posted the link, but its commercial in nature so...

jasonglh 07-13-2006 17:28

TR

I would complain but it would not help at this point. We are only less than a year post F-4 tornado trying to cruise through downtown here. Much of my power going out is for 2-3 hours during the day while they are working on something somewhere. I'm not sure what happens each time it goes out for more than a day at a time though. That put them way behind in trying to do the already planned upgrades. I just hope they get all the weakened poles and lines replaced before the winters first nasty ice storm gets here.

But yes I am about 2 miles from the city limits surrounded by thousands of acres of reclaimed strip mine property. In a disaster I dont think many would venture down this dead end road the interstate is on the otherside of town.

mugwump 07-13-2006 19:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by NG_M4_Shooter
RE: the non-bullet stopping nature of houses

There are 'bullet proof' wall board panels you can buy in varying thicknesses and degrees of protection. They use UL and NIJ ratings and some of them have been 'R' value tested. Some of the brand names are armorcore, and secureall. I have no idea what they cost - I just wanted to point out that they are available. Woulda posted the link, but its commercial in nature so...

See this rather long video: Basic Urban Skills Training - Ballistic Penetration Tests

Marine Corps penetration tests of cinder block, brick, plywood/stud/plaster board and interior walls by M9, Shotgun w/ bird and buck shot, AK47, M-16, M249, M40A1, M240g, M2, M82, M203, M67 frag, M44 30mm chain gun.

mugwump

mugwump 07-13-2006 19:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by x_sf_med
My Bug out plan is to head away from the major population center close to me....

x_sf_med,

It may not be necessary to bug out, NY seems to have things well in hand. In the event of a phase 6 pandemic in NY:
"Symptomatic individuals who who must go out in public will be encouraged to wear facemasks."
The following almost makes it sound like they're afraid of offending the virus. We mustn't prejudge or be guilty of genetic profiling.
"School Closures

There are no systematic studies that show the effect school closures have on levels of influenza activity in a community. (School closures at the peak of influenza outbreaks are usually a response to high student and/or staff absenteeism—not an effort to prevent transmission.)"
You may even be able to take in a Broadway show, or a Knicks game.
"Cancellation of Public Gatherings

Evidence regarding the effect on influenza transmission of canceling public gatherings is lacking. Decisions regarding such cancellations will depend on the specific characteristics and epidemiology of the pandemic strain as well as other considerations listed at the beginning of this section."
Scary document: Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response Plan

Slantwire 07-14-2006 06:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by mugwump
It may not be necessary to bug out, NY seems to have things well in hand.

Wow, I feel so much better now.

7624U 07-14-2006 20:39

Can we assume if a social break down happens all paper money will be worthless, and only hardware and food will have value along with skills IE. a trade. (Mr. Harsey) type.

Or when the power goes out and money is still good who will be SOL because they use debt and credit cards and dont have cash on them. any thoughts.

I still have Cash on me but i also have some barter items case the need ever happened. Barter I mean trade items that are as old as Humans. Booze,Suger,Coffee,Salt.

MAB32 07-14-2006 20:56

7624U,

A wise man once told me that the best bartering tool in a social breakdown will be "ammunition." I tend to agree. Though this might be short-sideness on my part, I think it is a very good point for stocking it.

The Reaper 07-14-2006 21:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by 7624U
Can we assume if a social break down happens all paper money will be worthless, and only hardware and food will have value along with skills IE. a trade. (Mr. Harsey) type.

Or when the power goes out and money is still good who will be SOL because they use debt and credit cards and dont have cash on them. any thoughts.

I still have Cash on me but i also have some barter items case the need ever happened. Barter I mean trade items that are as old as Humans. Booze,Suger,Coffee,Salt.

I believe that it would take a pretty bad situation where the average person would turn down cash.

Credit cards, checks, and bank accounts, absolutely worthless fairly quickly.

Gold should hold beyond cash, as would staples, though I tend to agree on ammo and alcohol, as long as whoever you are trading it to is not likely to be giving it back to you shortly afterwards. I like 5,000 round blocks of .22LR. Useful, inexpensive now, stores well, and makes for good change as well as not being as potentially dangerous to my family as some other ammo.

For a pandemic, or a lot of other disasters, I would want to have a couple of thousand in small denominations of cash locked up in the safe. Hard to get change for a $100 when you are hungry and the other guy has a can of beans. Might want to get a few hundred in silver or gold coins as well, if you have the wherewithall. Diamonds, being an artificially inflated commodity with little real value and no competition, would IMHO be a bad trade item.

Are we done with defensive planning here?

TR

7624U 07-15-2006 03:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Reaper

Are we done with defensive planning here?

TR

1 vote: yes
to keep the thread active


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