Madrid
 

Why?

I think that the poll does not allow for the most likely possibility, that AQ cooperated with the ETA and used their materials, connections, and intel to set up the hit by AQ, perhaps for compensation, at a time and place of AQ's choice, allowing them to claim responsibility.

The GoS just announced the arrest of Morroccans and Indians in connection with these attacks. The Morroccans track with AQ, not sure what the Indians would be doing, unless they are Muslims. The ETA has gone to ground, if they have any intelligence at all.

This tracks with rumors of increasing international interaction and cooperation by national or regional terrorist groups.

Just my .02.

TR

Good point Boss, thanks for the oversight. Corrective action taken. I think I even fixed it where you can vote again if you want.

I voted for both, based on what TR pointed out.

With the perception that AQ is behind this, and voting looking likely to change the Spanish government... Is it possible we might lose Spain as an ally in the GWOT?

Their entry into our Alliance, from what I recall, was not widely supported by the people.

I didn't vote because there is not enough info to determine the answer.

The attack does not fit the MO of either group. The preponderance of evidence points to ETA. However, barring a major shake-up in ETA, the attacks are way out of character.

None of the TTPs involved indicate AQ involvement. No suicide, guys wearing ski masks, and some other things. [edited to reflect current news]


I look at it this way. Say you are a member or ETA (a fairly savvy group as far as terrorist groups go) and you are pissed your group has been pretty effectively dealt with under the current President. You know that the population supports him in his campaign against you, but you know the population does not support him in his other counter-terror initiatives (which is a pretty interesting dynamic). You need to do something to get him off your ass and mobilize people to vote against him. What do you do, who do you blame and when do you do it? I argue we have already seen the answer. The wake of the operation affects the change you need which may or may not allow for your ultimate survival.

If it was an AQ/ETA tag team, we are in some deep shit.

I'm confused . Are you suggesting an "ETA disguised as AQ" option, or an "AQ disguised as ETA" option?

I agree with your thinking, it was a quick plan to out the current President, and it worked.

If they are working together Spain is in deep shit with the new President, not us. They will use Spain as a jump point knowing they will not be hunted on home turf.

Now it's the "La Jihad" bring it on.....

(Kinda stupid declaring an open season on yourself.....)

Team Sergeant

True. My concern over a team-up is the proliferation of collar-bomb technology and cell phone detonators. I don't like it when terrorist groups get together and compare notes.

I find it interesting that the people of Spain (not unlike some of the people of our country) would rather blame everyone except the terrorists that perpetrated the attacks. I do not, however, find it surprising that Spain folded under this pressure.

Few countries I know would think the opposite and the attack would only harden their collective resolve. (Great Britain and Australia come to mind) This may be an emerging consideration on behalf of the terrorists, attack the weak countries, for they will not hunt you or take part in removing rouge governments. Interesting indeed.

The sad part is the terrorists seem to have won and achieved this victory without a fight. They are smarter than I gave them credit. They timed it perfect. Now we need to be on alert 11 months from now……

Team Sergeant

Zapatero promised to pull Spanish troops out of Iraq if he won. In exit-poll interviews, people are saying that they voted for him because they think AQ was responsible. (So I guess they do believe that there is a relationship between AQ and Saddam.)

If AQ and ETA are working together, the government will have a hard time getting the population behind the fight against either group when the other can be held partially resonsible.

I hope that bombs-before-elections doesn't become the next rage.

What do you think their goals were? Beyond the affecting the election?

I do not believe that Americans would respond the same way.

Well, maybe in Massachusetts . . .

I think this attack is as importat to the future of terrorism as our success in Iraq is to the future of the Middle East.

I agree, this was a huge success on their part. They are now planning the next hit, anyone got a list of countries backing the United States against the AQ and Iraq?

Agreed, but we would out the current President based on his failure to protect us....

I would say they more than acheived their goals.

Spain ...
 

Sadly, as the nearly 200 bodies are prepared for burial, the Spanish population is questioning the wisdom of its government having supported the United States in its Global War on Terrorism (GWOT); namely Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). About two years ago I had the pleasure of training alongside a Spanish infantry officer. He was not only highly competent in his country’s doctrine, but was equally adept at our own. On the eve of his return to Spain, he told me about the one thing that set the United States military apart from the Spanish armed forces the most. His revelation was surprising. It was not our realistic training – constantly tested and validated in battle. It was not our cutting edge technology - years ahead of any military in the world. It was not our highly trained non-commissioned officer corps - the most professional in the world. It was the willingness of the American people, more than anywhere else in the world, to commit their sons and daughters to voluntary military service and to have the moral and physical courage to get after the enemy, wherever he may be. Historically, Spain, as a nation, has lacked the willingness to involve itself in modern conflict.

Spain remained militarily neutral during World War One. Economically, it was a very significant source of goods for France, the other allies and South America. Amazingly, Spain also lost close to 140,000 tons of shipping (not to mention ship personnel) to the German U-Boats during the war. Nevertheless, Spain was not eager to engage the Germans, directly, or otherwise, in the prosecution of any retaliatory military action.

During World War Two, Spain was neutral as well. However, from the period of 1939 to 1942, it was quite close to the Axis Powers. The rule of Franco and the economic destruction following its three-year civil war, took any incentive out of the Spanish government to involve itself into a destructive conflict. Nevertheless, Franco had entered into talks with Hitler in order to secure Spain’s security during the war (a pervasive attitude in Europe called “appeasement�).

In the end, I think that fighting is not in the heart of Spanish people. It will probably take a strong government and, sadly, another catastrophic event, to propel Spain forward into a true fight against terrorism on its own soil and beyond. Al Qaeda’s strike against Spain has come at a critical time. The fact that the strike has come exactly 911 days after our own collision with destiny should not be lost on us. The symbolism here is obvious. However, the most important aspect of this strike is just below the surface.

This latest attack clearly punishes Spain for supporting the United States during OIF and the GWOT. The average Spaniard psyche is germane to the next point. These attacks will likely, and predictably, create a backlash against the current ruling party as it supported the United States and indirectly proposed an alternate target for Al Qaeda to exploit. Many on the left see Spain’s support as a return to the days of St. James the Moorslayer, who is said to have helped the Spanish warriors drive out the Muslim occupiers nearly 800 years ago. This is nonsensical rhetoric but nevertheless, not lost on the far left there, or anywhere else in Europe.

If this strategy works to significantly affect the upcoming elections, Al Qaeda would have achieved an even grander victory. If Al Qaeda proves to itself that it can manipulate a nation’s elections, then no election, anywhere, is safe.

Only if his replacement was deemed to be better at protecting us.

As that does not appear to be the popular opinion, I would say that it would have the opposite effect here.

Additional terrorist attacks here, unless demonstrably caused by Administration neglect, should prove to help the current Administration in their re-election campaign.

Now, if they would only select a VP who brings something more electable to the table. Like Powell, or Rice.

TR

Sadly I think this would be accomplished by “pulling out� of every country we are currently hunting terrorists in. That’s how Kerry and his kind will protect us, by conceding to the terrorists. Without the pressure of the United States on their asses they will be free to attack the weak nations and convert them to their ways. That’s how I see the future if Kerry is elected.

The Al Qaeda effect ...
 

I guess we were right. Spain's elections have been decided by Al Qaeda.

Working on that INTEL at this moment TS.

Best Regards,
J

Re: Spain ...
 

The Division Azul ("Blue Division") was formed from volunteers in 1941. The first Spanish troops arrived at Grafenwöhr in July 1941. On 25 July, they were officially designated the 250. Infanterie-Division and reorganized on German lines (Spanish infantry divisions at the time were "square" divisions, with 4 regiments; German divisions were triangular, with 3 regiments). On the evening of 11-12 October 1941, the division conducted a relief in place of a German division of the XXXVIII Army Corps, 18th Army, Army Group North. The next night, the Spaniards saw their first combat. They would fight pretty much continuously through that first Russian winter and into 1942. By September 1942, they were part of the siege of Leningrad. Between February 9 and February 11, 1943, the Spaniards suffered heavy casualties (75%) in the battle of Krasny Bor. Fighting continued throughout the year and in October 1943, the division was withdrawn and began the return to Spain. Several thousand volunteers remained behind as a Spanish Legion (the "Legion Azul") and served into early 1944. By April 1944, the Spanish Legion returned to Spain, but several hundred Spaniards remained in German service, including SS-Obersturmbannführer Miguel Ezquerra's Sturmabteilung "Ezquerra", which fought until the end in the battle of Berlin (Ezquerra himself managed to get out of Berlin after the Soviet victory).

There are plenty of lists:
- those with troops on the ground in Iraq;
- the political coalition for OIF; and
- those with troops in OEF fighting al-Qa'ida and other terrorists.

But make no mistake. This was not about Spain's role in Iraq. That was only one small part of the terrorists' casus belli. This is a war against the West and Western values - liberty, equality, fraternity, pluralism, and all that.

There are plenty of countries who are with us in Iraq that are worried - the Czechs recently intercepted a shipment of tons of plastic explosives - but even those not with us in Iraq - France, for example - harbor no illusions that they are safe. I seriously doubt Greece will cancel all of its security precautions for the Olympics this summer now that only OIF coalition members are at risk.

Regarding "who's next", one thing to note:

Next Sunday, March 21, is the Persian New Year (Nauroz or any of a myriad of variant spellings). Besides Iran, it is celebrated in Afghanistan and Kurdistan.

According to Turkish press reports, the Iraqi Kurdish PUK has already claimed to have foiled one AQ suicide bomb plot for the new year's celebrations in Sulaimaniyah.

From Kirkuk to Kabul, this is one of the more immediate threats to watch.

I think Italy is next

The information in that article is inaccurate.

My thoughts exactly.

Or England, but they may be a harder target. I suspect that the larger Muslim and immigrant population in England may offset their superior security posture and make it a toss-up.

The ability to change the outcome of an election in a European nation is a scary portent of things to come and is the exact aim of terrorism.

TR

I agree completely. I say Italy because it is the other country besides Spain where polls showed a majority were opposed to sending troops to Iraq and the politicians did it anyway - easy to get the same result.

Also agree about the offset in England. It was my 2nd choice.

I agree with Italy but not England. You have a major bombing there (like Spain) and you're just going to enrage them along with the United States and double the efforts of the both countries.
The terrorists have learned (and terrorist supporting nations) that if there is a major event were to occur in the US we will act quickly and unilaterally. We will remove heads of state and entire governments over such acts. I really do not think the AQ saw that coming.

Italy on the other hand would fold in two seconds and follow the Spanish example of “if attacked place head in sand.�

Team Sergeant,
I think perhaps you under estimate the power of the radical left in England. Blair is already shaky at best. We'll see soon enough won't we? I bet it doesn't take them long to strike after the success in Spain.

Actually, polls showed opposition in almost every country in Europe. But bear in mind that support for US policy in Iraq is hardly the sine qua non for being a terrorist target. For Spain, the Iraq policy and its unpopularity in Spain was only one component. It was Spanish policy from 1492 to 2002 that made Spain a target, and not just from 2002 to 2004. Spain was also a target of convenience. With the relative ease of smuggling stuff from Morocco, the ability to hide among the local Muslim population and the contacts with home-grown ETA terrorists, Spain presented opportunities that other countries did not.

Since 9-11, most of the large terrorist attacks and attempted attacks had been in non-Western countries - Indonesia, Pakistan, Iraq, Turkey, Morocco, Yemen, Kenya, Russia - where security measures were not as good as in the Western world. As time went by, even the Western countries security measures relaxed somewhat. The NY National Guard disappeared from the subways, the Gendarmerie Nationale wasn't as visible around the Eiffel Tower, and so forth. Madrid was first, but it could just as easily have happened in Milan or Athens, and Italian support in Iraq or Greek opposition to US policy would make no difference.

To the extent al-Qa'ida is in a position to plan high-profile large-scale attacks, the Athens Olympics remains a major target, but of course that is one area where extensive security measures are being taken.

As noted, the most immediate threat may be in Afghanistan or northern Iraq, timed with Nauroz to provoke chaos and internecine violence. In the longer term, the Athens Olympics and the US elections remain high-profile targets. But a Madrid-style attack is just as likely in Istanbul or Warsaw as in Milan or Manchester.

BTW, lost in some of the recent coverage of Madrid and other fronts in the war on terror was this: Saudi security forces killed two more people on their al-Qa'ida most wanted list in a gun battle in Riyadh. One of the two was Khalid 'Ali bin Hajj, A Yemeni reportedly head of al-Qa'ida operations in Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf region.

Chief of Al-Qaeda's Arabian Peninsula Operations Killed

RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA: Saudi security forces killed two militants,
including one considered Al-Qaeda's chief of operations on the
Arabian Peninsula, in a shootout in the capital of Riyadh on
Monday, U.S. and Saudi officials told the Associated Press.

A Saudi Interior Ministry statement said the two were killed in
the al-Nasseem neighborhood, in eastern Riyadh, in an exchange
of fire with security forces on Monday afternoon.

Abu Hazim al-Sha'ir, a Yemeni believed to be about 30, was the
senior Al-Qaeda figure in the region, a U.S. counterterrorism
official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. The
official said his death represented a "major, very significant
blow" to Al-Qaeda. "This guy was involved in ongoing terrorist
planning and plotting," the official added.

The Saudi Interior Ministry identified the dead as Khaled Ali
Haj, a Yemeni,and Ibrahim bin Abdul-Aziz bin Mohammed al-Mezeini,
a Saudi. Haj is another named used by Abu Hazim, according to
the U.S. counterterrorism official.


Suspicious Packages Sent to Saudi Embassy in London

UNITED KINGDOM: British police said Monday they were examining
four "suspicious" packages sent to diplomatic premises in
London, as the Saudi embassy revealed that it had received an
envelope containing white powder.

In a statement, the embassy said: "A closed envelope arrived
at the embassy this morning containing white powder. The
embassy contacted the British authorities who dealt with
the matter on the spot."

Scotland Yard has not revealed any more details about the
discovery or what the white powder was.

Yes I quite aware of Blair's standing, but we're talking about Brits. (not frenchmen) They will fight just to uphold the Queens honor. They have a very good sense of the moral right. Remember these are the people that were ready to do battle with hitler and Germany alone if necessary.
No, if an large scale event were to take place on their soil it would be more trouble for the terrorists. Easier to pick on small countries with no backbone, make them all withdrawal then go after the big guys. Especially if world opinion is on your side!!!

Being the pessimist I am, I expected Italy to cave like Spain after the attack on the Carabinieri headquarters in an-Nasiriyah. But the opposite happened. Italy experienced an outpouring of patriotism. An opinion poll in La Repubblica in the week after the attack showed only about 1/5th supporting pulling out of Iraq.

I'm not so sure I agree with this.

AQ needs a base now that they don't have 'Stan and the Pakis are in the tribal areas. Their last success was in 'Stan while it was in a state of chaos (like Iraq is now).

How about this - they made a deal with that Muslim cleric that didn't want to sign the constitution and his group will be the next Taliban after they isolate the US in Iraq?

I do agree about the polls and we all know about polls in general.

Anybody still think ETA was involved?

Yes

I should have said other than you. You probably think McVeigh and Jimmy Hoffa were involved too. LOL

No, they're both dead. I'm not a conspiracy theorist.

I'm not an expert but...

The explosives, while apparently not stolen or missing from Spain, were manufactured there. The detonators don't tell me anything, because they all learned that cell phone crap from the IRA probably.

I think the common link with all these groups is the training they did a few years ago in the ME. And I don't think one group is going to do an op in another group's AO without consulting with them. I don't think ETA did it, I think they allowed and maybe supported it.

ETA and the IRA have worked Colombia, and they all sent people to the ME.