Is Osama Bin Had?
 

Is Osama Bin Had?

The last communique from the Al Queda leadership was from Ayman Al-Zawahiri on August 4, 2005. I believe the last video or audio tape from Bin Laden was around the time of the Tsunami.

1. Is he dead?
2. Is the pressure so intense that he fears technology will betray his location if he releases another tape?
3. Is he incapacitated mentally or physically?
:munchin

Interesting questions CoLawman

I'll take the liberty of adding another and will then settle back and wait for the discussion to happen:

Would it make any difference to the GWOT if OBL was either 1, 2 or 3 above?

Take care...

G

GWOL? I thought it was GSAVE... :D
http://www.professionalsoldiers.com/...ead.php?t=7689

Good observation CoLawman. I really hope that we will have the pleasure of seeing his ugly face on National News after digging him out of whatever hole he is hiding in, a la Saddam Hussein. Although I'll settle for hearing about his death by various illness or other more violent means.

As for OBL (and hopefully AAZ) becoming dead, I think it would make a difference in several ways.

First, Al Qeida would become a different organization. New Boss, New Rules. That sort of thing. Can't really say what would change, but the possibilities are endless in an evil organization like AQ.

Second, I think that AQ would lose some support as many people idolize Bin Laden rather than the organization itself. Unless a new, equally popular leader took his place, the people (i.e. the so called "Arab Street") would probably care a little bit less about what happens to AQ. Of course, the alternative would be to have an unknown step up and become popular by pulling off an attack the size and scope of 9/11. (Not a very happy thought)

Third, I think it could dramatically affect what we do, as we respond to what AQ does. Thus, if AQ decides to make Canada its new home, we would have to do something about it. Thus, any changes in strategy or deployment caused by change in leadership, would have to be met by us.

Fourth, and I think this would be the biggest problem that would affect us: The liberals would say we won the GWOT (or GSAVE, or whatever) and can now bring all our troops home. "After all," the liberals would say, "Bin Laden did 9/11. If he's dead, the war's over, we need to bring our troops home, etc." This would be picked up by the Liberal News Media and used as a political tool to turn the country's opinion against the war and George W. Bush.

Thoughts?
Aric

If he is dead, I hope that the body is never found. A big, flashy exit would only enhance his status as a folk hero in the Muslim world. :mad:

There are some on here that think he's already made a "flashy exit".... ;)

I for one think hes dead. As far as I know no one has "confirmed" a video tape for years now.....

TS, I hope that you are right! Now, if only Zarqawi's crew would try to follow through on their big talk to the Saudis, we'd probably get to see a whole lot of flashy exits. :)

I believe that it will momentous when OBL is captured or killed. Without him the institution does not exist. Sure Zarwahiri will need to be taken care of but OBL is the Institution. He is the Money man, the inspiration, the logistician, and most important, the patriarch of AQ.

He is surely the head of the snake, and the beheading kills the snake. Yes there will be others who attempt to take the reins using him as a martyr, but with nowhere near the success.

Getting a little of subject, the same can be said for Zarquawi. His demise is a crippling blow to the insurgency in Iraq. Again I understand the individual cells that have been called sleeper cells act independent of the leadership. But 9/11 tells us differently. The entire network was enabled and reliant upon OBL to be successful. Read the evidence against OBL in his indictment for 9/11 to understand this point.

Now back to the original question? Why have we not heard from OBL? In fact, why have we not heard from him even though Dr. Zarwahiri stated we would hear from him?

I know a little about fugitives and the accompanying psycholigical impact brought about by being the hunted. It takes a physiological toll on them brought about by psychological stimulus known as STRESS. Look at how debilitating Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome can effect a person. This guy, at a minimum, is delusional in his distrust of everyone (i.e. Hitler) His cardio system is negatively impacted as is his immune system. Put it all together and this is not a healthy 40 some year old. I believe the lack of any communication from him suggests one of the three previous listed possibilities. Just my two cents.

Thoughts ? :munchin

Oops was composing and JATX and TS posted while I was composing. Will think about what TS said.

Um, just a quick question.

When 9/11 happened, it was reported he has kidney failure and must use a dialysis machine.

That was 4 yrs ago.

Was that true? And if so, what is the life expectancy of a fugitive, living in one of the poorer areas of the world, with access to medical assistance limited, and under stress?

:munchin

TS, to believe he is dead, one is required to disregard statements from the likes of Tom Ridge and Jack Straw that insinuate he is alive based on analysis of previous released tapes.

I will be the first to admit that I am the lay person who sits mouth agape 10 years later when it comes out that OBL was a CIA operative......etc. etc...... But in this instance I would think the knowledge of his death would be beneficial to the GWOT (Aric, don't start...), see my previous post.

In fact I would be willing to bet you a 3 night stay in the Ramkota Inn that those were authentic OBL tapes. :p

Maisy, I had completely forgot about that! I do not know that any credible source confirmed he suffered from Renal failure. I will do some research to locate a confirm of deny. No medic but that would hasten his demise and then I would be inclined to side with TS and foot the bill for the Ramkota Inn. :confused:

IMO, this is a misconception. Just as there is no "one" islamic leader, there is no "one" al-qaeda leader. Killing the head of the snake as it were, will not put an end this organization as we know it.

Also the money trail does not start or stop with OBL, he’s just another lunatic that many islamic idiots are funding/contributing to what they consider as the "war against the unbelievers".

If al-qaeda were gone tomorrow there would/will be another islamic extremist group prepared to strap bombs to kids for the "cause".

This is not going to end in our life time.

Team Sergeant= An Unbeliever

At the end of this month, I'll pose the question again, but I've already heard it a few times over, he-be-gone !!!

It is in our best interest that his passing is unknown !!! Leave them waiting to hear from their "Leader" for advice/direction !!! That will make that time WASTED and not regrouping !! If they do follow my thought and someone steps forward to lead the Re-group, then "OBL" will dispatch warning shot, one each, through temple !!! :D

Later.
Martin

And just for good measure, the 2003 war in Iraq, when we were handing the islamic extremists their collective asses where was OBL then? We had islamic lunatics from around the WORLD coming to Iraq to fight (and die) for the “cause”.

If there was ever a time to rally the troops this was the moment and OBL was no where to be found, no where. This and no other reason do I believe he is long dead and has been for quite some time.

The Unbeliever ;)

With all due respect, We can win this war, and in short order with the appropriate people incinerated. OBL and his mad doctor and Zarqawi's demise results in a disabling victory against the MAIN terrorist threat. I may be an optimist and for years formed my opinions based on Reader's Digest, but of late have taken a very serious and personal interest in terrorists.

I look to the break up of the Soviet Union, in our life time, as a perfect example of the impossible becoming possible.

The terrorist organizations are not on the same level as the once powerful Soviet Union and should take far less time to dismantle. I am particularly and probably more focused on terrorist organizations of late.

I understand the long history of Hamas and the PLO warring with Israel. I am familiar with the IRA and the conflicts involved there. Being Irish Catholic I refrain from drawing conclusions on who was at fault ;) . But these examples I do not compare to OUR GWOT.

But.......I am always learning, especially from all the participants on this site. Well most participants, I briefly forgot about Front.......never mind.

OK, just to throw more fuel on the fire...

I read somewhere that OBL and Saddam hated each other with a fire fiecer than the might of a nuclear explosion (or words to that effect :D ) and that if Saddam, and by extension Iraq, were on fire, OBL would not p*** on him.

If so, would that explain why OBL himself has not been seen anywhere near there, although other members of AQ have?
:munchin

Oooh, just waitin' for the spankin' to start!! :munchin

TS

I go for your point of view. OBL may have inspired a certain way of acting (spectacular attacks), but radical Islamism has legs and probably doesn't need OBL or Zarqawi or any other single figure to drive it.

There is much speculation (and doubt) about whether the London bombers, Madrid Bombers, Casablanca bombers et al.were part of the AQ hardcore. I for one, doubt it.

There are both "regional affiliates", small groups and individuals that subscribe to the AQ point of view; and all of them can easily go from having motivation & intent to being capable of carrying out a reasonable attack in a fairly short space of time. I'm not sure if OBL being around figures too much in the equation anymore.

G

I would declare him dead, and make him prove otherwise.

Lots of opportunities when he does that.

TR

They do not care about, on whose land they engage the Unbelievers (Infidels) !! Also, in the early days of OIF, do you recall seeing the "Paintings" of the WTCs collapse, several times in different locations ?!?!? They may have not gotten along, but they were aligned in a common cause !!!

The only thing that I question is the point that was brought up a few weeks back about the lack of Muslim unrest in the area of China that borders with A-stan !!! The possibility that OBL could be hiding in there in exchange for his "maintaining quiet" in the area !!

Later
Martin

While I agree that from a tactical point of view, it would make little difference ( I doubt he could plan a Girl Scout picnic), I disagree from a strategic view.

Terrorist movements are dependent on dynamic leadership personalities. I think this is necessary at least in part in order to do the things that must be done in order to be a successful movement. Not to the enemy so much as to the base.

If you look at some of the profiles of the neophytes - they are often young, intelligent and far from home. Students studying abroad, etc. They need a substitute role model. They look to local mullahs and at a global level, to those like Bin Laden and Zarqawi. Everybody needs heros.

So I think it is indeed important that they see that the myth of their invulnerability is just that - a myth.

And there is the historical aspect.

They need to see his shattered body in all it's gore. And his head on the fence at the White House. That they will understand. And fear.

Under no circumstances should he be "cleaned up for viewing" nor should "they" be allowed to bury him. No trial - destruction.

His shemagh and AK should be hung in the Special Warfare Museum.

IMO, the war will be won. As the war continues for the next 8 to 10 years we will start to give these terrorists ligitamacy (e.g., PLO - Arafat, al-sadr in Iraq) at that point it will be a lot easier to isolate and destroy them. We could also let them start their own "country" say on an isolated island like for instance Bikini Atol and "help" them build a nuclear reactor to power their island. We could then make a devilery of Plutonium in an Unmanned 747 and have an "accident" upon landing on the atol. Or of course we could just send representatives from the National Organization for Woman over and in no time at all things would start to change.

Prozac time

I think he's dead.

My belief there is based in part upon the fact that he hasn't been around, but mostly based upon the question of "what would I do if I was calling the shots?".

I would find him and kill him, and it would all be done discreetly.

No Martyr. No democrats and media screaming that the war is over because OBL is dead, and (for awhile at least) no other terrorist deciding they have to "out-do" 9/11 in order to get AQ to unite behind him. Also, no waiting for 3 years for a ridiculous trial to begin like with Saddam.

Yosh

Dead.

Tupac has released CDs for years after his demise and OBL really is no better than Tupac.
(I'm only kidding a little here, I don't believe his tapes to be real and his references to recent events (post 9/11) are ambiguous enough to make Nostradamus jealous.)

Besides, if he turns up as a maggot infested display, while pleasing to us in the US and elsewhere he becomes a martyr, an icon for his terrorist ilk.

Better that he fade away and become a big "?" in the history books.

He is already an icon. They think he is invincible.

Concur, current events say otherwise but I'm preaching to the choir here.

The best thing to do with this guy if he's still around is get some video of him enjoying a cozy bacon and egg breakfeast with his gay lover. :eek:

That would be too much pork for the Muslim world to tolerate!!!

He has actually become a bit of a non-entity lately hasn't he?

No tv appearances, no audio rants, no "waving of the gun against the infidel" photo's, not even the occasional written note to Al-Jazeera sayin' "hi, did you miss me? Oh and btw, I was responsible for that carbombing the other day".

All we have heard from AQ lately is the occasional "infidel" rant from his wannabe Lieutenants, and the odd "we are very strong, look, we have shot guns in the air".

He had a huge family from all accounts, with his children marrying his 2IC's children etc, and yet I have heard nothing from the whole blimmin' lot of them for some time.

So I am beginning to be persuaded to the dark side on this one...

Dead. Died choking on a pork chop bone while drunk off his ass watching a donkey show in TJ. Spread the word.

enemies?
 

I'm not sure if Saddam and OBL are or were still enemies. In The Secret History of the Iraq War by Yossef Bodansky the author makes the case that Saddam realized he needed Al Qeada if he were going to defeat the Americans and entered into a pact or agreement with OBL.

No dictator would allow a loose canon like OBL into his country. He would publicly support him and his actions but he would never let a religious fanatic/cult leader like him in. Keep him living with the goats and Taliban, sure send a Ramadan card with a fat donation but don't invite him in.

Mullah Omar did...

I do not know the whole story on seinor Omar (In an effort to educate myself I am reading 'Weapon of Choice') but I think Mullah Omar was more of a thug than a boot strap did the homework, read all about papa Joe Stalin to learn how to be a Dictator. He was also a big Islam guy and had to support all the other Islam guys or he would loose Jihad points ( :D )

I have read this twice and still have no idea what you are talking about.

Alright, I'm not alone then, lol

Has U.S. threatened

to vaporize Mecca?

Intelligence expert says nuke option is reason bin Laden has been quiet

Posted: January 7, 2005
1:00 a.m. Eastern
© 2005 WorldNetDaily.com

Why hasn't Osama bin Laden's terror network executed an attack on U.S. soil since 9-11?

Simple, says Dr. Jack Wheeler, creator of an acclaimed intelligence website dubbed "the oasis for rational conservatives": The U.S. has threatened to nuke the Muslim holy city of Mecca should the terror leader strike America again.

On his website, Wheeler explains how the Bush administration has identified the potential of wiping Mecca off the map as bin Laden's ultimate point of vulnerability – the Damoclean Sword hanging over his head.

"Israel … recognizes that the Aswan Dam is Egypt's Damoclean Sword," writes Wheeler. "There is no possibility whatever of Egypt's winning a war with Israel, for if Aswan is blown, all of inhabited Egypt is under 20 feet of water. Once the Israelis made this clear to the Egyptians, the possibility of any future Egyptian attack on Israel like that of 1948, 1967, and 1972 is gone."

Wheeler says talk of bin Laden's Damoclean Sword has infiltrated the Beltway.

Writes Wheeler in his members-only column: "There has been a rumor floating in the Washington ether for some time now that George Bush has figured out what Sword of Damocles is suspended over Osama bin Laden's head. It's whispered among Capitol Hill staffers on the intel and armed services committees; White House NSC (National Security Council) members clam up tight if you begin to hint at it; and State Department neo-cons love to give their liberal counterparts cardiac arrhythmia by elliptically conversing about it in their presence.

"The whispers and hints and ellipses are getting louder now because the rumor explains the inexplicable: Why hasn't there been a repeat of 9-11? How can it be that after this unimaginable tragedy and Osama's constant threats of another, we have gone over three years without a single terrorist attack on American soil?"

…Wheeler ends his column by explaining the effectiveness of the Mecca threat.

"Completely obliterating the terrorists' holiest of holies, rendering what is for them the world's most sacred spot a radioactive hole in the ground is retribution of biblical proportions – and those are the only proportions that will do the job.

"Osama would have laughed off such a threat, given his view that Americans are wussies who cut and run after a few losses, such as Lebanon in 1983 and Somalia in 1993. Part of Bush's rationale for invading Afghanistan and Iraq – obviously never expressed publicly – was to convince Osama that his threat to nuke Mecca was real. Osama hates America just as much as ever, but he is laughing no more."

Wheeler says bin Laden is "playing poker with a Texas cowboy holding the nuclear aces," so there's nothing al-Qaida could do that could come remotely close to risking obliterating Mecca.

Writes Wheeler: "So far, Osama has decided not to see if GW is bluffing. Smart move."

This is a valueless, worthless, trashy, internet news tabloid; please refrain from posting anything from this internet website on ours.

Thank you

TS

Yes it is, and I apologize for posting it. My interest was in the qoutes attributed to Dr. Jack Wheeler.

How about this quote?

Attributed to George W. Bush...

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/06/po...l?pagewanted=4

Regards,
Aric

Not only that, his grave would become a "holy site" to his followers.

Keeping the fire burning by tossing another log on.........

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9932134/

:munchin