777 Crash In Ukraine
 

I'll bet on a missile strike. ;)

This was my first thought as well. Did Russia do it?

Reports are that it was hit by a BUK surface to air missile fired from inside Russian territory. This is going to get ugly really quickly if true. Prayers out to the deceased.

It's the Malaysians.

I don't think any further explanation for the routing is required.

Remember, these are the people who let the rest of the world search for weeks for their lost airplane while they withheld information on its possible location.

As far as the SAM shooting, it was either the Ukranian government, which I would say is very unlikely, the Ukranian separatists, who initially claimed credit for the downing, and now deny it, or most likely, IMHO, the Russians shot it down in support of the "separatists".

A BUK requires armored TELs and radars to employ, it isn't a shoulder fired missile that might be hidden.

TR

The airspace was not restricted at the time. The FIR has been closed now, though.

Pat

This will certainly take the media's attention away from the IRS scandal......

Oh I agree. But remember, those airways are a marketable commodity and the Ukranians have probably been busy promising that the airspace is safe. I doubt the Malaysians were the only airline using those airways.

Pat

Jester says it was the Russians

https://twitter.com/th3j35t3r/status/489851558935265280

Only one question needs to be asked and answered.

Q. Who gains from this?

Certainly not the Pro-Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine. Even if they recovered an SA-11 BUK from the Ukrainian Army why shoot down an unidentified high altitude aircraft? An "accident" like this kills any hope of success.

Ukraine - possible, it brings in NATO/EU/US support to win the conflict and secure the airspace to pound the crap out of the rebel forces without the continued Russian Air Force support. Anything more is an escalation of East/West involvement.

Russia - possible, it forces the airspace to move north and south back over Russian controlled airspace. Clearly a win-win for Russia. Otherwise it's a dumbass move to continue support for Eastern Ukraine - unlikely!

The party that benefits the most "if intentional" is Ukraine. They have the capability and the weapon system used. (They were also first to cast a stone and supposedly provide "proof" of pro-Russian separatist envolvment.)

My bet is on Ukraine to purposely shoot down this particular airline. Don't have look further than the passenger manifest and the owner of the plane.

JMO

Point of origin for the shot is deep in separatist controlled territory. Hard for the Ukraine military to move a convoy of armored launchers in there undetected. Especially when the separatists already shot down another aircraft at high altitude three days ago with the same missile system, and the media observed one being operated by separatists in the area of the shootdown earlier today.

I think the separatists got out of control, or the Russians supporting them did.

Or the POTUS needed a diversion from the illegal immigrants.

TR

Isn't it "separatists"? :munchin

TR - I hear you, but we are clearly only being fed what some people want to feed us. I'm really suspect of the Crysler building on the Potomic having launch coordinates within hours but then backtracking shortly after saying they are now not sure the missile came from Russian territory.

I would suspect that an SA-11/17 with a vertical 70k' ceiling (nearly twice what was needed) and radar controlled could go horizontal nearly 24-natical miles makes a big circle.

Again MOO but who gains and who loses?

All possible. But why cast doubt?

Why not shoot down an Aeroflot commercial plane? (Control all the variables!)

Richard, agreed! Chaos breeds confusion but this would be a colossal mistake and a tactical blunder to launch a golden BB into a commercial air cooridor in hopes of downing a legitimate military target.

I remember the IranAir shoot down and whether it was intentional by Iran or not to provoke the US Navy, the results and world opinion was accomplished.

How do you change world opinion? Shoot down a commercial airplane filled with kids on holiday.

Nah, it'll turn out to be wires arcing in the fuel cell....:rolleyes:

The C3I question is important to weigh when trying to determine who made the decisions to fire on the aircraft. C2 in that environment is probably very centralized, and because of that its hard to imagine that a BUK SAM resource would be managed by 4 brigand separatists. Someone well above the paygrade in that SAM vehicle was probably the person who made the call. The more sophisticated C2 of Russia (or RU supported forward deployed forces) IMHO is more suspect.

Today is the 18th anniversary of that event.

BTW, I believe the NTSB got it right.

Pat

TR Sir,

Your words speak volumes towards the exact same sentiment around here from folks...

Very well said IMHO. It is a tragedy.

Holly

A Man-Pad can't even get a "Target-Lock" on something above 10K' Max, much less have enough Propellant to boost it that far. To get that high, it has to be the size of a Telephone Pole!!

I wonder if President Obama is happy with his buddy Vlad right now:

"This is my last election. After my election I have more flexibility."

Flexible enough to keep on his fundraising tour and ignore the State sanctioned murders of nearly 300 people?

The ends justify the means, eh tovarisch?

TR

Oh Barry's probably doing a serious "Happy Dance" over this.

Takes the focus off his latest scandal.

Which one is it again ????

Oh yeah ... something about illegal immigrants flooding/invading our southern boarder.

Granted, it was a Malaysian flight, but... our FAA advised US carriers to exercise extreme caution in the area back in April; the NOTAM is valid until April 2015.

http://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publi...RAINE_SFAR.pdf

POTUS: Hey Vlad...I need some help. They're beating me up over this immigration problem and all kinds of other things. Think you can help me out?
PUTIN: Sure...Think a plane being shot down will create enough diversion? We can talk about what you will owe me later.
POTUS: Damn....Great idea...get back to me when you figure out what you need in return.

You're close...
It was actually illegal immigrants flooding the IRS computers with claims for VA benefits for free healthcare being denied due to racism by conservative based TEA Party organizations. :D

*ring ring*
PUTIN: Yo! Bama.. Got it. Teach me everything you know about communism.

The POTUS has vowed to get to the bottom of this. I do not know when he is going to find the time, he has such a long list of things to get to the bottom of.