Ebola: "Out of Control in West Africa"
 

The tragedy which is Iraq and the threat that is ISIS may soon bow to a much bigger elephant in the room. This may be a greater threat.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...reak/11110943/

Ebola called 'out of control' in West Africa
By Michael Winter, USA TODAY

" The deadliest-ever outbreak of the Ebola virus has surged in West Africa after slowing briefly, and the pandemic is now "out of control," according to Doctors Without Borders.

Nearly 600 infections and 340 Ebola-related deaths have been recorded in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, the most since the virus was discovered in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan almost 40 years ago, the World Health Organization said this week. There's no cure or vaccine for the highly contagious disease, which has mortality rate of up to 90%.

"The reality is clear that the epidemic is now in a second wave," Bart Janssens, the medical charity's operations director, told the Associated Press on Friday. "And, for me, it is totally out of control."

He criticized the WHO and African governments for not doing more to contain the outbreak and to thoroughly trace everyone who has had contact with the sick or the dead.

"There needs to be a real political commitment that this is a very big emergency," he said. "Otherwise, it will continue to spread, and for sure it will spread to more countries."

As of Friday, the WHO was not recommending any travel or trade restrictions to the three countries.

"We think that the situation can be controlled with the measures that are being vigorously implemented," Francis Kasolo, the director for disease prevention and control at the WHO's regional office in Republic of Congo, told the German broadcaster Deutsche Welle.

The virus, one of the world's most virulent, is transmitted by contact with the blood, fluids or tissues of infected animals or people. It causes high fever, vomiting, muscle pain and diarrhea, and can result in unstoppable internal bleeding and organ failure.

Transmission risk is especially high among doctors, nurses and other health care workers.

The latest outbreak began in January or December in the forests of southeastern Guinea and spread to urban areas. Guinea has been the hardest hit, with 264 deaths recorded by Wednesday. Sierra Leone has reported 49 deaths and Liberia 24.

"This is the highest outbreak on record and has the highest number of deaths, so this is unprecedented so far," Armand Sprecher, a public health specialist with Doctors Without Borders, told the AP.

Sierra Leone has stepped up measures to prevent and contain the disease, the country's health minister said Thursday.

In Liberia, nurses fearful over the Ebola death of a colleague abandoned a hospital in New Kru Town, forcing it to close. During a solidarity visit to the hospital Tuesday, President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf declared the outbreak a national emergency. "

I''m no epidemiologist, but I'm guessing Ebola simply burns far too quickly and doesn't transmit well enough to be a global or even major regional threat.

But it's certainly yet another warning indicator of the very real risk and near inevitability of a truly global viral fire that could burn a significant percentage of monkeys off this rock via 1st and 2nd order effects.

It makes me hope that the likes of DARPA, CDC, and DHS are coordinating and investing in rapid/real-time mass testing for air travel.

Instead of looking at my junk on a scanner maybe they should be checking if Passengers are ticking viral bombs.

Ebola, although highly virulent, contagious, and lethal it is not transmissible like influenza (low infectivity rate). Ebola requires direct contact with infected bodily fluids, like HIV. Containment measures will prevent widespread spread of this disease. At highest risk are the health-care workers.

It's getting worse...
 

If any travel is necessary into the West Africa areas please take precautions.

Greatest respects for the comments below, but still ...

Just be damned careful, y'all.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/23/health...html?hpt=hp_t1

I'm not a virologist nor a gene jockey, but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night. :D So my short answer is - "I don't have a f'n clue" :p

My guess is though, it's going to be a rare event and hard for this virus to naturally mutate. I say that because their is no driving force to do so and there are fewer opportunities. We are talking about a zoonotic disease that is quite well adapted to its primary host. A deliberate contact (monkeys as a food source) with a closely related species was the only reason Ebola emerged in humans. This is not at all like a swine or avian virus adapting to an unrelated species to find a new host.

Of greater concern to me is the intentional mutation to make Ebola transmissible via the airborne route, to survive outside a host for longer periods of time, increase the prodromal period (lag time between infection and outbreak of symptoms), etc.

There are folks operating in this AO that would have such intentions and could acquire the capability. That's the greater threat IMO.

Someone's been reading too much Tom Clancy (Executive Orders and Rainbow Six).

With that said... I suppose some of his ideas were prescient.

The White House says it's not a threat, and will be continuing plans to host a three day summit of African leaders. Meanwhile, the CDC has this to say about the Ebola:

http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/...g/ebola-guinea

http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/.../ebola-liberia

http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/...a-sierra-leone

And then they published this:

http://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/air/ma...-airlines.html

But it's not a threat, right?

I'm no medic, and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but I do know that Ebola is incredibly virulent, and is present in all of the host's bodily fluids and excretions. Including sweat. Sweat!

I'm not trying to be alarmist here, but this is kind of a big deal. UK and US residents (aid workers) have already been infected and are dead.

Usually an outbreak starts in the hinterlands, and burns itself out quickly. This time, it started in major population centers, and hosts have boarded aircraft and traveled...

Do a Google search and start reading.

Just sayin'...

Emory Healthcare to treat Ebola patient
 

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/breakin...patient/ngrtm/

Why bring it home?

Seems, I don't know... Insane. Right?

I might be wrong about this, but I don't ever recall a case of it being knowingly allowed on aircraft, let alone one destined for the United States.

I am sure the US has much better medical and CDC facilities than else where in the world and this person or persons will get the best care possible....

But Ebola is nasty and there is no cure. I do not believe we have ever had a case in the US so why even risk it. All it would take is one individual to become infected then running around a city like NYC and we would have a f-ing mess that spreads to 50 states overnight.

Sort of describes that gem Ebola Pelosi.

Back in the 90s when I was an 18D, I read "The Hot Zone" (Richard Preston) about Ebola and thought right there and then to not just walk away from medicine, but run!

The fact that this disease is going wild now is or should be seen as a testament that organizations like the CDC, WHO, and anyone else involved don't have a clue as to how to isolate it and prevent its worldwide infection in a global environment.

Recent revelations that the CDC lost control of live viruses and stored others in a non-secure research facility should tell you they may have the best of intentions but lack the fortitude to live up to their charter of protecting the public.

Whatever protocols are in place in Georgia and the route there from Africa, I hope that nothing goes wrong. I hope that they find a cure without infecting others and that they have the best controls to protect anyone and everyone that comes into contact with this person and those in the host county.

Ebola as a bioterrorism weapon is on the horizon so for their part a cure and vaccine is needed...Godspeed.

Ebola crisis: WHO to announce $100m emergency response
 

The World Health Organization chipping in resources to fight it is good, but containment seems like the only successful approach.

I could imagine this being a rather sticky situation to manage, even though Ebola can only be transmitted by the exchange of bodily fluids.

Corrupt host nation partners

Local fear/hostility stemming from ignorance

Poor governance/security/health/utility/transportation infrastructure

I'm guessing we don't see an apocalyptic spread to the 1st world(decisive intervention if reached), but if Ebola established in a Lagos megaslum, that's the stuff of nightmares.

Also, the concurrent risk and distraction from questionable Islamic charities coming to "help", or even just one competent and malignant lab technician isolating and reproducing it.

Hopefully everyone trying to scrape up some of mother nature's biological weapon is destroyed along with the virus.

If bodily fluids transmit it, why can mosquitos not be a vector?

TR

Good question, IIRC Mosquitos are not a susceptible host/carrier of the virus. Also I have not heard that domestic animals have been susceptable as hosts. So just bats and humans and only the humans die far as I can remember.

Two folks in our area contracted Ebola who were working with Samaritans Purse. I'm certain they were using and were trained in standard precautions at a minimum... One was a physician.

As open as this POTUS has allowed our borders to be, it's not too far fetched an idea to imagine someone who has the determination to strap on a suicide vest, purposely infect themselves, and fly to this country via South America...

Here's an interesting twist from Mr. Jones.....

Getting away from the conspiracy, Jones lays out some potential facts...

http://www.infowars.com/dont-fear-ebola-fear-the-state/

I don't know what is fact, so I did some quick searching from 'trusted' sources.....


DHHS States:

The CDC says:

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease...ted_deaths.htm

WHO states that there have been 1334 deaths associated to Ebola from 1976 through 2012

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/


So what is more dangerous Ebola or Influenza?

Paslode- exactly correct. On a population scale Influenza is far more serious. However, on an individual basis, Ebola's 60% -90% mortality rate and the manner of death (bleeding to death) has a very significant psychological impact. Just watch this thread as it goes off the rails if you don't believe me. You'd think we are facing the Zombie Apocalypse. :p

Zombie Preparedness
 

No kidding...I know a guy that is a major conspiracy theorist and he's so fun to mess with. Back when the CDC added their Zombie Preparedness marketing campaign to their website, I sent him the link and told him that it was for real and that it was about to hit the fan. His reply? "I f@cking knew it!!!"

Back to the thread, this same acquaintance was up in arms when he found out that the infected American doctor was making his way back to the states. He firmly believes that it is an attempt by the government to create a large scale epidemic so they can do something sinister without the public's knowledge. And no - he is not a friend. He's a neighbor and I love to mess with him. Especially when he sees me reloading in my garage or dehydrating food or canning it. He honestly thinks that I know something is about to go down and that it has nothing to do with me being resourceful, thrifty and old fashioned. :rolleyes:

Remember Influenza vs. Ebola -

Method of transmission and state of person. Deaths from influenza are mainly attributed to the elderly and very young children who have weakened or not fully developed immune systems. Ebola kills otherwise healthy people. While transmission rates are significantly higher with the flu and many people treat their symptoms themselves at home and continue to spread the virus during daily contact with others in confined spaces. Ebola tends to have a nearly 100% transmission rate to anyone in contact with the blood or body fluids of an infected person - even after death of the host.

We have vaccines to mitigate the effects of influenza and yet some people still die from it. Mostly because they don't get immunized or don't recognize the threat until it's too late. Far as I know, only the lucky survive Ebola even when early identification and symptomatic treatment is given.

Interesting that you brought that point up, ODNT. When we look at key biomarkers in the blood of EBOLA survivors it looks as if these survivors had a co-infection on board at the time of infection with EBOLA. Specifically, a parasitic infection IMO. The co-infection would have conferred a pre-infection activated innate immune response that would have reduced or eliminated infecting EBOLA virus. Incidentally, I seem to recall a similar effect and resistance to HIV infection.

My advice to you guys worrying about getting an EBOLA infection, rub some dirt in it. :p

Interesting.

Trap,
One thing that I'd question is, where Ebola is normally found, those people are pretty much living in "the dirt." They don't have the best sanitation facilities and their kids, when young (ie growing up) usually play in the dirt, not like back here where if little Johnny or Susie want to play at the park they need to be wearing a "crash helmet", knee pads, elbow pads, and are slathered in some sort of antibacterial ointment, hell, they're this close from having to wear a full body condom just to play in the front yard now-a-days.

So it would reason that the West African people who are in the Ebola "hot zone(s)" would have that immune system "up and running" to help fight off the virus, to I believe what you are referring to.

They just really have to learn to stop eating infected fruit bats and monkeys, or what ever else it is they do with monkeys that would warrant them catching the disease.

That does make some sense, having an intestinal parasite help fight the virus, seeing that the virus usually attacks the soft organs (stomach, liver, intestines, etc.) would seen plausible.

I'd be interested in hearing from our resident experts on this as well.

SD & BO- I was being facetious wrt to the 'rub dirt in it" comment, but only somewhat.

The survivors of EBOLA probably had malaria co-infection.

We are, however, supposed to have a variety of bugs on board (commensals and symbiots) to have normal resistance to infections and be generally healthy. That's no news to either of you I am sure.

However, what is new is the notion of modulating the initial (innate) immune response to fight on-going infections or prevent infection from progressing to disease.

If it were me and I had a team mate that I suspected to be infected with EBOLA, I would treat him with multiple doses of a vaccine over 3-5 days- don't really care what vaccine either. BCG vaccine or Freund's Complete Adjuvant would be particularly useful or even Coley's Toxin. Just trying to induce an innate immune response (mimic the biological response of survivors) and hopefully eradicate virus in the process. In fact just about any foreign protein would be better than nothing.

So yeah, rub some dirt in it. :p

Not an airborne pathogen, they said?

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-20341423

I drew the same conclusion on my own prior to reading that article. If the pathogen exists in an infected host's bodily fluids, and that person sneezes or coughs on you, what are you now covered with? That infected host's bodily fluids, that's what. The virus is transmitted how, again? Bodily fluids, you say?

The two patients that are being transferred to GA for treatment, they were both medical workers, and both had full knowledge of what to do to protect themselves from infection. These were people who knew the risks, supposedly knew what they were doing, and who should have been wearing head to toe protective gear, and yet both were still infected? How did that happen?

You cannot compare this virus to influenza because it isn't influenza. Influenza does not have a mortality rate that is between 50% and 90%. A vaccine for influenza already exists. And, as has been mentioned, influenza does not tend to kill people who are in generally good health.

CDC is issuing advisories telling people not to travel to three African nations. This disease has jumped at least four borders that we know of (not counting countries that are "importing" it on their own). WHO is saying that it is "out of control" in Africa. Meanwhile, other medical authorities are saying "It's not a threat. It's not that transmissible. Air travel is not a big deal." Really? OK. Do you want to share an armrest with that poor fucker on the airplane, breathing his recycled air? Guess what? He has to go use the potty. Does he wash his hands afterward?

How can we afford to confront this with a cavalier attitude? "It's only 600 dead, the flu kills 30,000 each year in the USA" or likening it to that whole zombie meme bullshit is exactly how pandemics start. You don't realize the corn is growing all summer, until suddenly you look up and realize that it's over your head. And then it's too late...

MOO, if you believe everything WHO says, you would never leave your house. I'm not trying to minimize the danger, but just because "Health Care Professionals" are trained in PPEs doesn't mean they PRACTICE them.
Is there a threat? Yes. Is it going to end life as we know it? No.

I do not disagree. I'm just saying, this isn't something that should be marginalized by likening it to fake things like zombies, or real things, like the flu.

DJ,
We're on the same page, can not ignore this or we're going to be looking up at tassles. But I cannot force myself to agree with WHO (even if they're right).

Interesting link. One thing I would like to question the researchers is, they say that the infected pigs were separated from the macaques only by a "wire fence." That spread of the virus "One possibility is that the monkeys became infected by inhaling large aerosol droplets produced from the respiratory tracts of the pigs."

What about the waste (urine/feces)?
How was that waste disposed of from the pens/cages?
Did they just lay down some newspapers and change those or was there some type of "run off channel" coming from the enclosure?

We all know that animals in cages/pens have to have those pens/cages cleaned out periodically. But could not the monkeys somehow become infected through that route? Either playing in (we all know how much monkeys LOVE poop), somehow having it run over to their cage/pen, somehow getting mixed into their food/water after the infected waste has dried and dust particles travel through the air?

As we all have been saying to people, the way to keep from getting infected with Ebola, is DON'T play in an infected persons ick or poop.

Just like the number one rule in EMS states .... "If it's wet, sticky and NOT yours, don't touch it."

Now if, and I say IF while wearing my tin foil hat .... if Ebola has indeed become aerosoled, would that not show some sort of weaponization of the virus? If that be the case, TR's "Be Prepared" threads will be re-read with even more due diligence.


I will say I did recently have a discussion (re. argument) with a young lady who stated that the virus had indeed become airborne.

I asked her for her proof/links, to which she provided the link of the airline passenger who flew between the two African nations, who both have the outbreak within their boarders. This was her proof that the virus had become "Airborne."

I informed her about the different ways in which a virus is transmitted (Flu: Airborne pathogen v. Ebola: Bloodborn pathogen), to which she stated she was correct and that I didn't know what I was talking about.

I just rolled my eyes and told her to say it was all Bush's fault and call me a racist and go away. That her level of stupidity was starting to infect me. :rolleyes:

I feel you on that. I didn't mean to marginalize it. If my sentiments came across that way then my bad. My point was that I feel that there are greater threats to us than this. Two planes can take out 3k or more lives on what felt like a normal business day in NYC. That being said, I do wonder about the logic of bringing someone with ebola into this country. Not being a health expert, my opinion is relegated to common sense.

I see you've been reading the SF medics field manual again haven't ya? :D

BO .. It's that SAME link/story that DJ posted. :facepalm: :D

I guess what I'm trying to get at is, instead of the virus being transmitted via the aerosol route (sneezing, coughing, pffffftttttttttt), that it could have been transmitted via another way, between the test subjects in yours (and DJ's) link(s).