North Korea: What happens if Kim Jong-un acts on his threats?
 

In the event that the 'bellicose rhetoric' of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un turns into something more serious, the opening hours of conflict could be 'pretty ugly,' defense analysts warn.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Militar...on-his-threats


BMT

Well, if what we have is used the way it supposed to be, yeah, the opening hours could be bad...but...IF we can unleash...WITHOUT the politicos, we could get it done.

But, given our track record (politicos)....it will be bad..sooo, same 'ol same 'ol I fear..

the inaction and rules imposed by the politicians would kill more US soldiers than the enemy.

F-22's?
 

F-22s

Yeah, lets throw some more eggs into that basket.

This help?

Richard :munchin

LOLOLOLOL :D

Better than coffee, Bro. :D

In this case of rattling, we have an unknown factor-exactly how unhinged is the little fellow? :munchin

NK's more of a threat to CONUS than Hussein was. We know he has WMD's, and he's capable of acting on his bluster...

I think the problem here is that little shit never earned anything. His dad and grandpa, for all their bluster, knew that they would lose badly in a war having already seen it happen. Fat boy and most of the generation surrounding him haven't, so he probably buys into his own bullshit to an extent.

I don't have any SF experience with Korea, and my last trip there in the big army was 15 years ago. From what I remember, I think it's gonna be bad if the balloon goes up. Even if it is Fat Boy that starts it, his cult of personality and state control of the media is so total that he could sell "The evil empires have attacked and invaded the peace loving people of the DPRK" all day long, thus turning his entire population into a farmers with pitchforks militia. Pitchforks are no match for bullets, but the PR and propaganda victory of outside military units subdueing DPRK civilians is not going to over well.

If it happens, I think it is gonna suck. I hesitate to use a Vietnam comparison, but between the climate shifts, terrain, 60 years of preparation for it, and a northern neighbor that doesn't like us very much and would love to see us bogged down in another war that they could support very easily - yeah, I'll stand by my opinion, but I hope I'm wrong.

Well now, the Chinese are gettin' in on the action. They've increased their activity/readiness for PRK by troop movements near the border ....

I cant believe a place like this exist in 2013. Entire Korean slave towns set up in Siberia. With Korean writing on all the signs. They don't even know they are in Siberia.

http://www.vice.com/the-vice-guide-t...h-korea-1-of-3

I just finished watching part 1 of that documentary. What a strange place!

Thanks kgoerz

guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain
 

The guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013...#ixzz2PKFwZ1Nk

I would say this is called in poker ante up!

They've been doing the same thing since I was there in the early 90's. Several times a year, leap up, pound their hands on the table, and scream "Hey! Everybody look at me!" Just so the rest of the world doesn't forget they're there.

Allow me to take a page from the book of Richard:

And so it goes... :munchin

Normally I would agree with you 100%. What's different this time is the extent of PLA mobilization in NE China - something that has not been done, to this extent, since the tree-cutting incident during the Carter administration.

Note the parallels. What's missing?

Reagan.

To answer the immediate (and Topic) "What happens if Kim Jong-un acts on his threats?"

Much like a band of crazies rushing into a Wal-Mart with katanas and pistols on a Sunday morning, they will do a considerable amount of damage and kill a large number of soft targets for a while, until the big boys show up.

When the fuel and food stop, so will the offensive. By that time the North Korean Army will be perhaps 30~50 miles into South Korea. Seoul will be heavily damaged, and the government will have displaced south, perhaps all the way to Pusan.

Like Pearl Harbor (and Singapore, and Manchuria, and Kuwait ...), there will be an initial success for North Korea, and then the bubble will burst. The biggest losers will be the South Korean pacifists.

Or maybe the biggest losers will be the North Korean government, who will run for China as quickly as Idi Amin ran for Saudi Arabia.

Because if they stay, the collapse of the North will result in a young man -- and many others -- hanging from the end of a rope.

The first rule for a dictator is:

Stay Alive.

The second rule of a dictator is:

Stay in Power.

The second rule should yield to the first.

Those who understood those rules lived, some very well:

Idi Amin.
The Shan of Iran.
Manuel Noriega.

Those who got the rules reversed suffered the consequences:

Sadaam Hussain.
Muammar Gaddafi.
Benito Mussolini.

Tis better to cut and run, than stay and be cut.


Anyway ... that's my opinion, and it ought to be yours.

{uh, Scout Platoon, 1/38 th Infantry "the Rock of the Marne", 2nd Infantry
Division, 1974~ 1975}:)

Yes, but are they doing that, preparing to help, or hurt?

You never know until the bullets start flying. China, after all, is still a Communist Country.

I served over a year in ROK 85-86. Any combat there is not going to be pleasant in any way shape or form. The South is prepared for a war, every mountain range is dug in, with roads going in at the base, and gun ports opening up out of the sides of the mountain. Every bridge is wired and ready to be blown. Every overpass is also wired. Every choke point has overpasses full of concrete and steel, waiting to come down on the roads. There will be no easy passage to Seoul, except by Arty. I spent time on GP Collier (spent my honeymoon in Bunker #5 with Fredricks... it was a blast.)

When this goes down, it is not going to be quick or easy. It's going to be bad. I feel for my relatives in SK now. I personally hope things will calm down, but with this little man syndrome Un has... He's going to rattle his little sabre off, then launch an attack. We would be neglect if we discount his ramblings. Remember the Boy Scouts... Be Prepared. All of NK is living in the 50s, and most have that way of thinking. When they do strike, and I think they will, I hope we hit them hard. Really, really hard.

But... there again is China...

{Aco 1/31 Inf (M) 2nd Inf Div ROK DMZ MP Jun-Aug 86 GP Collier and patrolling the Z. Imjin Scout}

lol Outstanding! :lifter

I disagree.

This is the little kid, running his big mouth. He isn't going to start the fight after all of the threats, while we are ready and watching his every move. This is all posturing, IMHO.

He is going to wait till this has all returned to normal and then, out of the blue, WHAM!

I agree that the North cannot take the South, but what will the South pay them to stop after an hour or two of watching Seoul get pasted?

TR

I don't think China is there to help or hurt North Korea (North Korea is/was a buffer state and the Chinese favor the status quo until something better comes along) ... they're looking after they're own interests. Remember that a lot of the NK nuke stuff is close to the China border. If hostilities break out China knows that those facilities will be targeted and destroyed ... they're worried about the 'downwind message'. Their show of force on the northern border is to remind the North Koreans that China, while a benefactor, has a lot to lose if North Korea overplays its hand. Their rhetoric (critical of North Korea's actions) and the show of force are a splash of cold water in North Korea's face. The Chinese don't want to act, but will if their hand is forced ....

Isn't North Korea pretty much Tony Soprano with national sovereignty and a poopy homemade nuke?

Looking back at incidents like the Pong Su lend evidence to the fact that North Korea is a narco-criminal nation state.

And instead of having the criminal prosecutor on payroll and compromising photos....it has a 1st gen nuke.

I agree largely with CSB, bar swapping Idi Amin with Quaddafi.

Idi Amin pissed in his own punch bowl by invading Tanzania.

Qaddafi started kitten fights with Egypt and Chad(even had a hand in trying to prop up Amin in Uganda) and funded pretty much anyone who called themselves a terrorist or freedom fighter.....but he managed to stay in power circa 40 years......that's a Pro Bowl level of dictatorial longevity.

Anywho....here's my take:

20-15 years ago:

North Korea rattles the sabre and everyone jumps to pay them off. Why? It's the start of the Dot Com tech bubble/boom.....no one wants to upset the apple cart....there's too much money to be made...so pay the extortion bill.

15-10 years ago:

North Korea rattles the sabre and everyone jumps to pay them off. Why? The Dot Com tech boom busted, but the property bubble/boom is well underway and no one want to upset the apple cart....there's too much money to be made...and 9/11, Afghan, Iraq makes an NK distraction too big a bowling ball to swallow with the rest....so pay the extortion bill.

10-5 years ago:

North Korea rattles the sabre and lights off a nuke. North Korea is also getting busted for running drugs, counterfeiting, and god knows what else. The equities markets are dead(bar commodities), the property bubble is a dead man walking, Afghan/Iraq are hoovering up military resources and national treasure, inflation is ramping up, and financial instability/shockwaves are looking likely. People are no longer worried about NK possibly ruining the party, we're now worried about NK stupidity tipping us into a financial black hole.

TODAY:

North Korea regime transition and sabre rattling. The world is financially F***ed. There is NO hope of a quick financial recovery. There is a DESPERATE need to reboot both the US and the global financial system thru radical change. There is NO appetite for comprehensive bipartisan majority supported domestic reform. And there's even less global consensus on global financial reform.

The change in circumstances between today and 5,10,15,20 years ago is significant.

I believe we are no longer in an environment where we feel we have too much to lose, I believe a Machiavellian option is changing from highly unlikely to at least the realm of possibility.

If North Korea was a spark for a regional conflict(same with Pakistan), it could present an opportunity for the US to leverage its unprecedented force projection capability before it inevitably attrits over time due to financial unsustainability.

While the US is a mess right now....it is a highly flexible mess. While China might best be described as a bit like some forms of steel....strong.....but inflexible and at risk of shattering.

Both a North Korean and Pakistani sparked regional conflict could see China getting sucked into it.

In both cases, in the past, the US would be very quick to step in de-escalate conflict risk....as it WAS in US best interest to do so.

Is it STILL in the US strategic best interest to de-escalate conflict risk between North and South Korea and Pak-India?

In geopolitical chess, would an act of omission(US choosing not to de-escalate or acting too slowly to de-escalate conflict risk) rather than an act of commission possibly see China sucked into a regional conflict, increase risk of China shattering, and see the US whole and still in the driver's seat for what comes next as well as the excuse for comprehensive and aggression reform?

Although the risk of comprehensive reform going against the grain of what most on this forum would prefer would be quite high with the current administration.

Never let a good crisis go to waste X one million.

I don't think the current admin is enough of a hawk to be preemptive however I do think that if the North does attack, its gonna be a really nasty battle until the rest of the US Forces shows up. When I was there {96-98 1/503rd IN} we were told that we were pretty much a speed bump to slow the NK down as much as possible until the main US Forces showed up.

One thing I do remember is that are some well fortified tunnels and extremely well hidden pillboxes at the end of those tunnels with about 60 years of growth aiding their camouflage. And that those hills/mountains are a bitch. So definitely not easy terrain at all.

My grandfather, who was in the Korean War at its start, told his brother before he died that his entire European theatre of WW2 was a cakewalk compared to the horrors he saw in Korean War. {WW2 B/5th Ranger, KW 19th IN Rgt/24th ID}

We responded by sending "one" Arleigh Burke Class, Aegis guided missile destroyer. Big deal. I'll take note when we send a battle group or two. The little fat boy just wants some attention, he got it. Now he'll retreat to suck on his pacifier.

Let me know when a few carriers are in striking distance.

"Anonymous" hacked their flickr/propaganda account. Now we're really in trouble

http://www.flickr.com/photos/uriminzokkiri

Looks like Lil' Kim's been having bad dreams and wetting the bed again...

Richard :munchin

Biden in a Gen-1 Godzilla outfit is a nice touch.

Maybe fat cheeks is still a little pissed.........

My $.02
 

Well now we know what it's like when Eric Cartman runs a country?

My $.02, Kim's age, gravitas, and preening after Dennis Rodman like a prepubescent teen doesn't awe the wolves in his Army. I think he knows he has to draw some blood, declare victory, and prove to his minions he can be as ruthless as his predecessors without starting a war, maybe a naval exchange or shell that island again. I don't think the annual posturing around the time of US/ROK exercises cuts it for him this time.

I hope Korea doesn't start but if it does, let's finish this shit once and for all. Beat them into the ground, disarm them, hang Un and the generals, and let South Korea run their economy.

If he pops one next Wednesday as implied, it's gonna create an unbelievable diversion from the economy. They'll talk about Korea and not much else all the way up until the Congressional elections.

What does this do for/to our current administration? Will our legeslative branch of government be able to anything? So far, all our legeslators have been able to do is to piss, bitch and moan about "issues".

RF q

They will probably start in with the background checks and ban assault nukes....

Interesting. :munchin

NK tells both British and Russian diplomats to leave the country by next Wednesday (4/10), or the NK Govt. won't be responsible for the diplomats safety.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage...ast-coast.html

"Never let a good crisis go to waste."

How big does the crisis get?

How big will the opportunity be for the US Administration?

If the US Administration leverages the opportunity(beyond and distinct from any possibly necessary military solutions), what is the most likely and most dangerous courses of action?

I wonder how a Korean Crisis could be leveraged to provide an excuse and/or momentum for domestic US policy?

FLAGG YOU SAID IT ALL!!!
 

Very well said sir...
I mean c'mon guys, if you think the CPC is made up of 80,000,000 friendly neighbors just watch "tears of a snow leopard" (a documentary of the Chinese policy on re-educating the Tibetan Monks & Nuns, with vaginal cattle prodding etc.
IMHO if we let these fuckers alone for too long, our grand kids will be speaking Mandarin and the sum total loss of our "inalienable rights" to date will be NOTHING in comparison to life as China's most pissed on province.

The PRC needs to be overthrown and its going to be a lot easier to do it before they take us over. Lets mass forces in NK then use lil Kim's international booty dance as justification to get the fucking job done once and for all. If only they'd let Patton arm the Germans to annihilate the Russian army we wouldn't be between the damned rock of WW3 vs the rock of inevitable communist take-over.

fucking politicians....
:,(

Wow!

Just wow!

MacArthur's spinning like a top.

Hunh.

Richard :munchin

What happened to your tolerance for differing viewpoints, Richard? ;)

Went out the window somewhere between the call for Patton to rearm the Nazis and MacArthur to wade the Yalu. ;)