A couple years ago we got hit with a relatively low-key hurricane and the whole area was without power for like a week. It's amazing what most of us take for granted; electricity, clean running water, lights, refrigeration... showers. People were calling themselves Amish because of the way they were suddenly forced to live.

I think I'll add water filtration system to my list.

“Do not wait until you are thirsty to begin digging a well.”
-- Chinese proverb

http://www.pandemic-plans.com/docs/H...demic_V1-1.pdf

This was just released today. It has good checklists (mandatory crucial, helpful) and implementation schedules at the end. (He says I shouldn't have bought cooking oil yet; he's right in retrospect.)

It strikes the right tone for my tastes, and he stresses that this thing could be non-existent or mild:

• Mild: You will change little about your daily activities, except to curtail exposure to crowds.
• Medium: You will ensure that distancing is carefully practiced, careful handwashing is followed, and exposure to the public is very limited, including trips to the grocery store.
• Severe: You execute your full plan.
• Ultra: You execute your full plan and take extraordinary precautions to ensure isolation.

Interesting-- thanks for the link.

I've been holding off on this but I hear (Chatham House Rule) that the PCR test is positive for H5N1. Niman talks in shorthand -- the "extended time period for symptoms and admissions is cause for concern" because it implies h2h transmission. If they all come down at once it implies simultaneous exposure to a vector. If it's one-little, two-little, three-little indians then that implies serial h2h. Note there are no reports of sick health care workers or illness outside the family, so this looks like "inefficient h2h."

Recombinomics

The above description of a large familial cluster in North Sumatra, Indonesia is cause for concern. Other reports indicated the mother has also died at an earlier date. The relatives have H5N1 bird flu symptoms and the extended time period for symptoms and admissions is cause for concern.

The number of fatalities has now grown to three and the condition of additional family members continues to deteriorate.

Familial clusters of H5N1 in Indonesia have been noted previously, but this is the largest suspected cluster reported to date.

When I said a while back that things were disappointing on the work front, this is what I was referring to and couldn't really say...an excellent article, extremely well researched.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNew...510?hub=Health

Edited to add: HA! Talk about spin. This vaccine is worse than the one I considered a failure -- the Frogs always claim success. Two 30 microgram injections plus adjuvant working 40-50% of the time is atrocious. A typical flu shot is a single 15 microgram dose.

Disinfecting Water on the Cheap
 

Summary: A relatively cheap solution was previously presented for filtering water down to 0.5 microns. This will filter out bacteria, protozoa, cryptosporidium, giardia etc. but not most viruses. You must disinfect the filtered water as well. (Note that disinfectant alone will kill viruses and bacteria, but not cryptosporidium and sometimes not giardia spores. You should filter AND disinfect.)

A one pound package of 60% calcium hypochlorite (commonly sold as a swimming pool "shock" chlorinator at approx. $3 per 1 pound package) will disinfect about 11,000 gallons of water. (Get a few packages: by adding 7 teaspoons of 60% HTH to 2 gallons of water you get a 6% solution, equivalent to strong bleach, for disinfecting.)

I know it's easy to re-contaminate water by introducing untreated droplets from container threads etc. but I don't know how to avoid that. Maybe someone who does could chime in.
-----------------------------------------------------------

It was mentioned way back in this thread that HTH was an effective water disinfectant if you knew how to use it -- and I didn't.

I checked into this and found that HTH = "High-Test Hypochlorite" = NSN 6810-00-255-0471 = calcium hypochlorite powder containing 70% free chlorine by weight. HTH is a very strong oxidizer used to provide the sanitizing property of chlorine without requiring the storage of large quantities of liquid bleach. HTH is widely used by the military and NGOs for water purification and decontamination. If kept dry it stores indefinitely without losing potency.

Military-grade HTM -- 70% free chlorine by weight -- is a particularly strong oxidizer. You aren't going to find it easily because it is just that much more dangerous to store. You will be able to find 60% free chlorine calcium hypochlorite sold as "pool shock" for use in swimming pools. Pay close attention to the package -- it should say "60% available chlorine" or "60% free chlorine by weight". I purchased HTH® SUPER SOCK IT Shock 'N Swim. (Be careful, you'll find 45% and 50% available chlorine formulations by the same manufacturer as well -- you don't want those.) It is sold in one pound packages. I paid $2.39 for a package at Ace Hardware. A very few pool shocks add cyanuric acid as a stabilizer -- you do NOT want a product with that added.

Attachment 6078

I found numerous protocols on the net for sanitizing water with 70% HTH like this one from the EPA:

"Add and dissolve one heaping teaspoon of high-test granular calcium hypochlorite (approximately 1/4 ounce) for each two gallons of water. The mixture will produce a stock chlorine solution of approximately 500 mg/L (1%), since the calcium hypochlorite has an available chlorine equal to 70 percent of its weight. To disinfect water, add the chlorine solution in the ratio of one part of chlorine solution to each 100 parts of water to be treated. This is roughly equal to adding 1 pint (16 oz.) of stock chlorine to each 12.5 gallons of water to be disinfected."

Others protocols start with same formula for the stock chlorine solution but say to add 1.25 ounces of stock solution per gallon (equivalent to 15.6 ounces per 12.5 gallons).

If you use the same EPA recipe with 60% HTH you will get a 0.86% solution instead of 1.0% This means you should use 1.45 ounces per gallon of this weaker solution instead of 1.25 ounces. I consider this an advantage as 1.5 ounces is a standard jigger size used in mixing drinks. You just add one 1.5 ounce shot glass of stock solution per gallon of water to be treated. (There are different size jiggers - be careful)

So, the protocol modified for 60% free chlorine granular calcium hypochlorite:

1. Add and dissolve one heaping teaspoon of 60% available chlorine
granular calcium hypochlorite (approximately 1/4 ounce)
for each two gallons of water.

2. This 2 gallons of 0.86% free chlorine is your stock sanitizing solution. DO NOT DRINK IT.

3. Add 1.5 ounces of stock solution to each gallon of water to be treated.

4. Mix thoroughly and allow to stand for 30 minutes. The water should have
a slight chlorine odor; if not, repeat the dosage and allow to stand for another
15 minutes. If the treated water has too strong a chlorine taste, it can be
made more palatable by allowing the water to stand exposed to the air for a
few hours or by pouring it from container to container to aerate it.

About the water you want to disinfect: If it's cloudy, prefilter the water through a coffee filter. You can get 1000 filters for a couple bucks at Sam's or wherever. Alternatively let the water stand until it settles and then draw off the clear stuff. Then siphon-filter it through the ceramic candle as previously discussed. Then disinfect. Double the treatment if the water is cold.

-----------------------------------------------------

Pool shock at 60% is still a strong oxidizer. "Strong oxidizer" means it gives up oxygen when in the presence of a fuel source. It should be stored in a dry location, apart from fuel sources. If you store it unopened in a small tupperware container (throw in a 1.5 oz jigger and teaspoon as well) you should be good to go, and the container will be useful if you ever have to open the package and start using it. That said, this stuff isn't rocket fuel and is safely stored on store shelves every day. Just keep it away from the Bullseye and the turpentine.
-----------------------------------------------------

62.4% calcium hypochlorite (60% available chlorine)

One pound = 16 oz
4 teaspoons/ounce X 16 ounces/pound = 64 doses per pound
64 doses X 2 gallons = 128 gallons of stock solution
128 gallons of stock solution X 128 fl ounces per gallon = 16,384 fl ounces stock solution
16,384 total ounces / 1.5 ounces per gallon treated = 10,922 gallons treated

Sumatra and Djibouti Clusters
 

(Still no transmission to health-care workers, so not a tipping point in my estimation.)

Two more family members in the Indonesian cluster reported here 10May2006 11:05 have now died, for a total of five deaths from the original eight in the cluster. Two of the surviving hospitalized family members escaped from the hospital and fled back to their home town. They were apprehended by the Indonesian army and returned to isolation.

"In fact was two again the patient that suspect bird flu. Namely Jones Ginting (25), and Obviously Ulina br Ginting, the daughter was 8 years old. However both of them forced left the hospital, although being not yet permitted. Currently both of them in the supervision of the Health of the Karo Regency of the Service."

"Brenata became casualties was killed fifth that was expected terjangkit bird flu in Medan, North Sumatra.
The child was 18 months old was killed after could be treated intensive in RSU Adam's Centre the Owner, Medan."

Twelve more new cases are now in hospital with presumed avian flu. No word of serological confirmation -- but when several deaths are reported in an area anyone with a respiratory infection is presumed to have BF. The fact they are being "treated intensive" is worrying, though.

"While 12 assumption patients of other bird flu were still being treated intensive in RSUP Adam the Owner.
Worry with the spreading of this deadly virus, the Government of the North Sumatran Province instructed the Health Service of the Karo Land to sterilise the area that it was suspected became the source of the spread.
The sterilisation was carried out in a radius of one kilometre.
Officially North Sumatran Livestock Breeding carried out the vaccination and spraying in the house environment of the casualties."

http://www.liputan6.com/view/7,12273...147446036.html

Machine translation via Toggletext

http://www.toggletext.com/kataku_trial.php

------------------------------------------

The first human H5N1 case in sub-Sahara Africa, a 2-year-old girl in Djibouti, is now part of a presumed cluster.

"Three of her siblings are undergoing investigation for possible infection. Their samples have been sent to the same laboratory," Cheng told Reuters in Geneva. "They have flu-like symptoms," she said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060512/...jibouti_who_dc

Oh, what the heck.
 

I've been adding to my stash one item at a time. Checking the exp. date and getting as far out as I can. If nothing else as time goes on I'll start rotating stuff in/out of the stash.

I'll start adding in hand sanitizers/wipes, stuff along that line now.

Ya' know, with food, water and medicine eating up this thread not not has gone into waste disposal. City water shuts down and people will have to take a shovel to the back yard. Toilet paper????? Man, I need to run out to the base and get a big box to stick in the attic.

Other than the water filtration stuff, everything can be used by a family at one time or another. $20 a week can add up to a right good stash of stuff by this fall.

Pete

That's what we've done. Small pantry in the kitchen and shelving in the basement. Run out of peanut butter in the pantry? Hit the "7-11" in the basement and replace it the next trip to the store. Other than Spam and canned chicken, we don't have anything down in the basement that we don't normally eat. (Fried spam w/ black crust, mayo, and a tiny dab of yellow mustard is one of the best sammitches known to man. When I can open the windows again it will go back on the menu -- the wife gags at the smell.) We have some stuff in quantities that won't be rotated in 2 years but I'm willing to write that off.

The wife handles TP, trash bags, disposable plates and plasticware, paper towels, wipes, detergent, soap, feminine products, clothesline and pins, etc. I have access to water, so I'd be bucket-flushing the toilets. I've been told the treatment plant will go to "pass-through" mode (no treatment, just dump) so the toilets will work. If we're told not to use toilets -- Mark 1 shovel.

An autumn target for being ready is probably prudent. I still think "within 10 years" is a possibility for when this might hit, but I'm obviously not ruling out "soon."

Djibouti
 

Now this is a little strange:

The World Health Organisation's Maria Cheng said: "Three others are under investigation." She said samples from the three patients, believed to be from the same family as the child, had been sent to the United States-run laboratory in Egypt that first confirmed the presence of H5N1 in Djibouti on April 27.

http://www.news24.com/News24/Africa/...931921,00.html

The case was confirmed by the US Navy (the only US lab in Egypt as far as I know) on April 27 and was only reported yesterday?

Thompson says a concerted effort is under way in Djibouti to try to contain the spread of the disease. He says his organization has sent supplies of Tamiflu antiviral medication, which has proven to be effective against the disease. Protective equipment for doctors and nurses has also been delivered to hospitals.

http://www.voanews.com/english/2006-05-12-voa50.cfm

The WHO says this:

Another WHO official said the affected family lives in an impoverished rural village near Djibouti's border with Somalia and kept chickens.

And Djibouti says this:

Djibouti health officials said they were surprised that the region's first cases appeared in the country, as most of the population are nomadic pastoralists who keep cattle, sheep and goats.

Chicken is considered a luxury by most of the population. About 90 % of the poultry eaten in the country is imported frozen.

So the impoverished family owned chickens, considered a luxury?

Sounds to me like WHO are trying to play whack-a-mole with a cluster that's been known about for over two weeks. Well, scuttlebutt says outbreaks have been contained twice before, in China and in Turkey, so I'll assume they know what they are doing.

A sixth person in the Sumatran cluster has died - apparently an 18-month-old girl, rest her soul. There is no word on the 12 additional cases outside the original 8 family family members - the reports have been neither confirmed nor denied. There is CHR talk of suspected additional cases beyond those 12 but it is all third-hand.

Using WHO's methodology (number of deaths/number confirmed H5N1) this outbreak has a 100% fatality rate.

A worrisome note: a nurse who treated some family members of the original cluster is now reported to be showing symptoms of flu. Some reports say she had the sniffles prior to exposure to those who died, others say the symptoms developed after exposure. Until her PCR testing comes back showing otherwise, garden variety seasonal flu is definitely a possibility. She is in isolation and is being treated with antivirals.

Note that infection of a HCW has happened before - in Viet Nam - and the nurse recovered and the outbreak was contained. (As a matter of fact there hasn't been a VN or Thai case in a year.)

Both individuals who fled the hospital and who were retrieved by the army are now reported to be dead.

Apparently, many (all?) in the home village of the six who died are being treated with antivirals and are under quarantine. I infer from the reports that WHO has initiated their "blanket treatment" plan, in at least a limited fashion, and seem to be all over this.

My take on this? It's got my attention but it doesn't yet cross the threshold for evidence of efficient H2H, although there is strong circumstantial evidence of H2H. It is the largest cluster to date, but is still small for a trigger event. There will be many additional "suspect cases" reported in the coming days if it is 'the' outbreak -- or there will be a news blackout.

Not noted in this article, but the vector for the Sumatran cluster is being attributed to "fertilizer" by offical Indonesion press release. I assume this means the spread of poultry manure (which is common worldwide, including in the US).

The following is subscription, last line (byline) removed, I personally claim "fair use."

From the Wall Street Journal:

Bird Flu Deaths Checked For Human Transmission
By NICHOLAS ZAMISKA
May 14, 2006 7:46 a.m.

An unusually large cluster of suspected bird flu cases among eight members of an extended family in Indonesia has caught the attention of local and international health officials on guard against any sign that the virus has evolved to spread easily among humans, the possible prelude to a pandemic.

After attending a recent family gathering, eight family members living on Sumatra island fell ill. Six of them have died in the past week or so, according to Nyoman Kandun, director general of disease control and environmental health at the Ministry of Health in Jakarta.

Local tests, which so far have proved very reliable, have shown that five of those family members were infected with the H5N1 virus, a deadly bird flu strain, although a laboratory in Hong Kong is currently in the process of confirming those results.

With similar, albeit smaller, human clusters in the past, health officials have presumed that the family members all fell ill after contracting the virus from the same sick birds -- all but ruling out the possibility of transmission among people.

The World Health Organization has sent a team to investigate, although Sari P. Setiogi, a spokeswoman for the health agency in Jakarta, said on Thursday that "it is still too early for conclusion at this stage." She was unavailable for comment on Sunday.

A nurse who attended to some of the patients also came down with an influenza-like illness, although she seems to have shown symptoms prior to treating the patients, according to Dr. Kandun. She and others in the family's village are currently being tested for the virus.

Since last year, there have been 33 human cases of bird flu that have been confirmed by the World Health Organization. Of those, 25 have been fatal.

I've always said politicians will be the death of us
 

More Chatham House Rule intel.

There is gibbering, slavering fury among the the public and private sector researchers who are responsible for vaccine development and production.

They are all watching this Indonesian outbreak very closely, believe me. Understand that this whole vaccine production thing is a race that starts when the "bad" virus is isolated. These French, British and American vaccines you are reading about? They are all using a virus isolated in 2004. Nobody knows if they will have any affect on a real pandemic virus. "The" vaccine will have to match "the" mutant strain that is causing the pandemic. Obviously, this means that the sooner vaccine research facilities get "the" virus samples the better.

Research facilities want the current Sumatra strain delivered yesterday so they can begin gearing up in case this turns out to be a true outbreak.

So couriers are rushing around the world with containment vials, right? Wrong. The scuttlebutt is that Indonesia is sitting on the current virus WHILE INTERNATIONAL COPYRIGHT PROTECTION IS FILED FOR and WHO is complicit. Can you believe that? Further, the US Navy's NAMRU-2 facility in Jakarta has received the samples from the sick health care worker and the other 12/16/20 suspect cases (the numbers are changing and are in doubt) but is constrained from releasing the results by prior agreement with Indonesia. Only WHO is allowed to release the results, and only after testing is completed in their "official" Hong Kong laboratory, and that could take another week.

So, they already know if the HCW has H5N1 and whether there's been secondary and/or tertiary H2H transmission but they won't release the results because they come from a nasty US military lab -- and that would embarrass both Indonesia and WHO.

So now everyone is left reading the tea leaves. World-class researchers, the QPs of their fields, are wasting time doing the speculation mambo, trying to second-guess idiots who want an "Islamic Vaccine". Some humans are just a waste of good skin.

I was sent the following along with this info:

Indonesia is seeking copyright protection for any bird flu vaccine developed by a locally-based U.S. Navy laboratory, officials said Wednesday.

A contract for the NAMRU-2 medical unit expires Dec. 31 and will only be extended if an agreement can be reached that is beneficial to Indonesia, said foreign ministry official Arif Havas Oegroseno.

That would include a guarantee that the government would be rewarded financially if a bird flu vaccine was developed using Indonesian strains of the virus.

Such a deal could generate “billions and billions of dollars,” Oegroseno noted.

http://www.navytimes.com/story.php?f...25-1399098.php

Thanks all for a very informative thread I have been checking it daily for updates. From the information here I have been able to stockpile enough stuff to go 3 months if needed. My wife and I both work critical care in different hospitals so this could be a future concern for both of us.

One concern I have is that during the SARS thing the hospital I work at ran out of N95 masks. When they got tight they advised us to keep 1 and when we had to go into the room to use one of the yellow masks on top of it because it is fluid resistant. I am really not comfortable with that and certainly not sure thats the way to approach a potential shortage of masks should the Pandemic hit. The hospital says they have a good supply of them but thats what they said last time. They have updated all of our negative pressure room equipment over the last few months so at least I have that going for me.

Just to add to my paranoia there is a Tyson chicken plant near me and they haul live birds and truckloads of poulty waste right through the middle of town. It smells lovely in the morning let me tell you. :(