I hope you're not talking about that guy at Defense and the National Interest who I regularly shoot down on SWJ....

Very interesting observation:D

Never read it. But the idea of empowering moderate Arabs to reform the Mideast from the ground up is a common theme in a lot of academic circles.

I raised that point when i was playing the liberal contrarion position, but actually I'm more partial to COL JM's position. The idea of a "moderate Arab" wellspring of democratic reform is, to a certain extent, a white whale. Not that I think the Mideast is completely incapable of self-reform, but rather that Arab tribal culture and (even more so) Islam are so strong that its hard to imagine any liberal reform group gaining enough traction for true bottom up democracy.

I think the best hope for democracy in the Mideast is top-down not bottom-up. Enlightened, liberal leaders gently and steadily pushing their countries towards modernity, primarily through economic and education reform first (to create a middle class) and then gradually incorporating political and culture liberties. Look at Jordan, UAE, and Qatar and you'll see what I mean.

If you're interested in the question of "moderate Arabs"...You might want to check out "The Last Crusade: Americanism and the Islamic Reformation." I'm only about halfway through it, but it makes a very convincing argument on how Islamic theology has basically suffocated native political reform and technological advancement at almost every stage of Islamic history.

http://www.amazon.com/Last-Crusade-A...7275549&sr=8-2

Speaking of alternative realities-

This would mostly be moot, if we did not need Iran's oil on the world market, and they were getting something more like the $10 per barrel it should be worth.

Total naval and air blockade, nothing in or out without our permission. And none of that "oil for food" corruption, either.

And billions to resistance movements within Iran. Shoe on the other foot, as it were.

TR

Now that is a frightening position, you sure don't want to let that out anywhere in the that five sided concrete sphinter you work in:D

We have a very very healthy economy that has been chugging along since The Dimocrat Jimmy Carter left office. There have been some peaks and valleys but that is how economics work. TAX CUTS! Read all about it. John Kennedy recognized the importance of TAX CUTS to fuel an economy. Too bad the new Dimocrats cannot grasp this idea.

If our economy was as fragile as you say, how is it that 9/11 had such a minimal effect? In fact the TAX CUT imposed by President Bush and the Republicans rescued us as we were reeling.

One only has to look at The DOW to realize we are steaming ahead! Hard to understand how we vaulted over 13000 to pull back (just a tad) when only weeks ago the Bears were wringing their hands yelling SELL when the Dow took a 400 point hit.

Foreclosures are always going to occur. Heck, my county led the nation in Forclosures at the end of 2006 and again first quarter 2007. Haven't seen any banks closing. The only thing closing are Mortgage Companies. Weak Mortgage Companies! There is always a shake out after a boom. Look at the Software Industry. That boom created a bubble that burst and turned alot of undeserving millionaires into wage earners, where they belonged in the first place.


1. Mortgage rates 6.125 percent to end the week.
2. Dow record territory.
3. CD rates. 5 to 6% for 1 year CD's.
4. Pay raises keeping up with inflation
5. European and Asian stock markets UP.

The biggest risk to our economy is the threat of a trade war with China. If that happens look out. By the way. It is the Dimocrats that have been introducing legislation to penalize (tarrifs) China for failing to adjust the (Yuan) or whatever the hell their currency is. If there is a trade war you can blame the Dimocrats, not the Chinese. Fortunately the Fed Chairman has made several trips to China to work on the problem. I believe the Vice Premier is coming to the US to meet with him regarding this issue.

The only consolation I derive from Dimocrats is the fact that they are for the most part bears and their money has been sitting in fixed rate accounts for years, missing the earnings.

Our economy is resilient just as most Americans are resilient. The sky is not falling.

Energy costs have been artificially low for decades. I still spend a smaller percentage in energy costs than I did in the 70's. Luxury items such as cars, audio video equipment are drastically reduced ration wise than in the 70's. The only thing that has continually appreciated is real estate (ignoring the 70's and early 80's of course, damn Carter) and the stock market.

Remember the October 1987 dive in the stock market. It took exactly 11 months to regain all losses (if you stayed put) . !987 finished in plus territory regardless of the scariest day on Wall Street since the depression.

Okay enough ranting.

x-factor,

I am done with you. I disagree with just about every “opinion” you’ve posted. And the DoD is paying you for your expert advice? I’m beginning to doubt that you are who you say you are and I’m thinking you are a semi well read school kid with a desire to debate some SF soldiers.

Hey x-factor, we’ve “comprehensively addressed” IRAQ and guess what, the terrorists are still killing hundreds a day.

We cannot stop the terrorism in iraq after almost five full years with total access and you assume we can contain iran if we “comprehensively address Iran.” I’m sure in your opinion will be “we’ve not yet comprehensively addressed IRAQ”. Spare me your retort it will fall on deaf ears.



“Iran is seeking regional domination and world power status.” So are my brothers kids, but right now they’re not much of a threat to anyone and they just make a lot of noise.

Guess you’ve not read about the iran-iraq war? Was pretty much a stalemate. Who’s iran a threat too, Dubai, UAE, Liechtenstein? Let me tell you a secret, I seriously doubt iran is going to invade anyone anytime in the near future, and definitely not with a US carrier group and thousands of soldiers in the region. Want to bet they too were watching the “Shock and Awe” demonstration we gave a few years ago? Do you think the US will allow iran to attack or gain control of any OPEC nations? Again spare me.




“Iran is currently completely uncontained. Thats the problem.”
Let me tell ya x-factor, if iran though it were completely uncontained they would have already annexed Dubai, UAE and Liechtenstein. Save your “the sky is falling” for someone else, it ain’t going to work on me.

One last issue x-factor

“If you're interested in the question of "moderate Arabs"...You might want to check out "The Last Crusade: Americanism and the Islamic Reformation." I'm only about halfway through it, but it makes a very convincing argument on how Islamic theology has basically suffocated native political reform and technological advancement at almost every stage of Islamic history.”
Seems to me that General George Patton already made that point a few “DECADES” ago. If we don’t learn from history we are damned to repeat it. All you’re doing is reading and regurgitating what was ALREADY said long long ago.

"To me it seems certain that the fatalistic teachings of Muhammad and the utter degradation of women is the outstanding cause for the arrested development of the Arab. He is exactly as he was around the year 700, while we have kept on developing"
General George S. Patton: The War as I Knew it, 1974, p.49

Do not address me again, not on this board. I do not believe you are who you say you are and I’m not going to continue discuss ME policy with a HS kid.

Team Sergeant

Fair enough. Where then are our political, informational and economic efforts? Has the military not been on the forefront in these efforts the past decade? It seems like the rest of our Government has shed the capabilities since the end of the Cold War and the military has picked up that role.

Delinquencies in the $1.3 trillion credit-mortgage market was 12.6% last quarter, up from 11.7% the previous quarter. And exceeded 13% in subprime adjustable-rate loans. The subprime market is 1/5th of the home loan market, about $1.3 trillion in loans outstanding, that's around the size of California's economy. I would say its more than a few, and I would say it is not a marginal problem. Don't take my word for it, Lou Ranieri is a legend on the Street and pioneered the mortgage bond, check into what he's saying.

What's keeping the unemployment rate low? Just what kind of jobs are talking about? Gary Shilling's got a study out that's found 52.6% of Americans receive significant portions of their income from government programs. That's a Welfare State TR. You are a conservative aren't you?

Look at our economy TR, how much of our job creation since the turn of the millennia has been in house: selling, building, buyership-enabling, furnishing, and everything else home related? Around half, I dont have the hard numbers with me.

What has enabled this TR? I would say consumer confidence, easy money lending, and cheap energy. The last two are heading the way of the Dodo and Crystal Pepsi.

Yes we have, however, the key factor is Cost. The end of cheap oil is over. Period. The economy still has not adjusted to this, the estimates of what the cascading effects of this will bring run from dire to noticeable shocks to the system.

First of all I don't think I have ever made favorable reference to the UN in a post. Second,what is wrong with pessimism if I see it warranted? Have you not seen what the "don't worry be-happy" dogmatic optimism of neoconservatism has done? Haven't we had enough Feith based initiatives?

I love our country, but I think our leadership are bunch of damn fools. Albeit fools I helped get re-elected.

You make the issue with me. Fine, you have that right, and you're a man whose opinion I value more than most. But you did not address the main arch of my post: "My concern is that this is what UBL wants........UBL’s goal to is cause our internal decay and collapse from the cascading effects of our response." You disagreed with my assessment of this strategies effect, what of it being UBL's strategy? Isn't it what you would do if you were him?

No, there was an actual Fabius Maximus. I would like to hear your thoughts on his work though, PM me your links to the SWJ threads.

Everything you say I have heard before. I know what you are going to say before you say it. I even know some of the Svengali's who came up with it, I was even going to be one.

Hell the X in his name, I thought he was an 18X. Definitely tell he read a lot of books, There is a big difference between being Smart and having spent time in School. Ill never call a student dumb because he can't shoot, he just never had someone teach him to shoot. I will call a Student Dumb for showing up on NDD's Range the first day with an Umbrella:eek:

LOL :p

I disagree with you on foreign policy, so I must be a lying teenager?

I have never been dishonest or disrespectful, but you can believe what you like. I'm not here to pick fights.

I collect a government check.

Am I on welfare?

Are you implying somehow that all people who receive income from the government are leeches, tk?

What have you sacrified for your freedom, and this country, young man?

TR

tk27 just to set the record straight you have quoted me as writing "nonsensical prattel" wasn't my post you pulled that from. Since You attributed that to my tag, and I did not write it, I assume you are referencing my post as nonsensical prattle.

I am going to allow you a wide berth as I am merely a guest here. You might want to consider perception before you display brash behavior. With your credentials I would spend more time listening rather than being so pretentious. Reflect on how opinionated you appear on such a wide and complex cornucopia of issues.

Simple minded ( as you accuse me) perhaps. At your age I had already served my country, fathered three children, been employed in my chosen career for several years and acquired a college education. Compare that to student.........bartender.........simple minded indeed!

Kudos
 

Thanks Team Sargeant, for the relieve from x-factor. He might of been tryimg to play Red Cell, but enough is enough! All I heard was the same sound bytes
that the Left always try when their arguments are lost.

Kqoerz: I thought I was the only nut thinking a pragmatic way to absolute victory in Iraq with no more U.S. loses: Nuke it. It would also be the end solution for the Palestinian/Israeli conflict: Nuke the Golden Dome in Jerusalem'
(5 K would suffice) so no one can claim it for decades and maybe the next few generations might figure out a peaceful co-existence! Of course, we would never hear the end of it from the UN, Human Rights Cartels and all other envious Turd World countries, and of course our EU "Friends".

Reaper: A Naval Blockade to Iran is the first step to bring those little facists in line. That along with our new sources of energy and drilling in Anwar and the Gulf off Florida, to bring the price of oil to $10 would be the end of the Iranians, Venezuela's Chavez and the rest of Opec would have to drink their oil
and then we'll see how much power and threats they end with. Of course we would first have to defeat our own Domestic enemies that under the guise of "Enviormentalists" (New banner for the Commies), hinder our progress to drill for new oil resources and hinder new refineries being built.

No. You are a smart man; you know that the word welfare and the term welfare state both have different meanings. And as a student of history you know the implications for countries whose citizens derive much of their income from the government.

Make this into a personal and invasive issue if you must TR. But please do not do so and not address the main arc of the post:
"My concern is that this is what UBL wants........UBL’s goal to is cause our internal decay and collapse from the cascading effects of our response."

That’s actually an ancillary point I have been trying to make over the past year. Nothing has been asked of the citizens, no sacrifice or anything, in this “War on Terrorism” or “War with Islam”. So to say we are in one of these wars and ask nothing of the citizens we are either A: going about this the wrong way, or B: not at war with either Terrorism or Islam.