masks in public part of decrease in transmission
 

as part of overall social distancing & going out in public less often.:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....12.20034660v1

Impact assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 and influenza in Hong Kong: an observational study

Benjamin J Cowling, Sheikh Taslim Ali, Tiffany W. Y. Ng, Tim K Tsang, Julian C. M Li, Min Whui Fong, Qiuyan Liao, Mike YW Kwan, So Lun Lee, Susan S. Chiu, Joseph T. Wu, Peng Wu, Gabriel M. Leung
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.12.20034660

Abstract
Background: A range of public health measures have been implemented to delay and reduce local transmission of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, and there have been major changes in behaviours of the general public. We examined the effect of these interventions and behavioral changes on the incidence of COVID-19 as well as on influenza virus infections which may share some aspects of transmission dynamics with COVID-19.

Methods:
We reviewed policy interventions and measured changes in population behaviours through two telephone surveys, on January 20-23 and February 11-14. We analysed data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, influenza surveillance data in outpatients of all ages, and influenza hospitalisations in children. We estimated the daily effective reproduction number (R_t), for COVID-19 and influenza A(H1N1).

Findings:
COVID-19 transmissibility has remained at or below 1, indicating successful containment to date. Influenza transmission declined substantially after the implementation of social distancing measures and changes in population behaviours in late January, with a 44% (95% confidence interval, CI: 34% to 53%) reduction in transmissibility in the community, and a 33% (95% CI: 24% to 43%) reduction in transmissibility based on paediatric hospitalization rates.

In the two surveys we estimated that 74.5% and 97.5% of the general adult population wore masks when going out, and 61.3% and 90.2% avoided going to crowded places, respectively.

Implications:
Containment measures, social distancing measures and changes in population behaviour have successfully prevented spread of COVID-19.

The social distancing measures and behavioural changes led to a substantial reduction in influenza transmission in early February 2020.

However, it may be challenging to avoid fatigue and sustain these measures and population behaviours as COVID-19 continues to spread globally.

For some, das Ende.

undocumented cases were only 55% as contagious
 

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926893

A Million COVID-19 Cases Already, Global Estimates Suggest

Ricki Lewis, PhD

March 16, 2020

Spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 from Hubei Province, China prior to travel restrictions imposed on January 23 likely seeded a million cases worldwide so far, many so mild that people might not have realized they were infected, according to findings published online today in the journal Science.

Researchers discussed the findings of the new study and a previously posted study on the effect of travel restrictions during a news conference today.

In the Science article, Ruiyun Li, PhD, from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, UK, and colleagues used mathematical modeling that combined data on people's movements among 375 Chinese cities with reported infection data, using statistical inference techniques.

The analysis suggests that before travel restrictions were instituted in Wuhan, 86% of cases were undocumented. The model also estimates that these undetected cases were 55% as contagious as were documented infections.

"Six out of seven cases are undocumented. The majority of cases are mild, with few or no symptoms, so most people may think they have a cold or not recognize that they're ill. If globally 150,000 are confirmed, then it's not unreasonable to project that we're approaching close to a million infections globally," said senior author Jeffrey Shaman, PhD, from the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, New York City.

That also means that the 3500 or so documented cases in the United States are likely the tip of an iceberg.

The travel restrictions imposed in late January might have had only a limited effect, said Elizabeth Halloran, MD, DSc, director of the Center for Inference and Dynamics of Infectious Diseases at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, Washington and a coauthor of the earlier study, posted on medRxiv preprint server. (Articles posted on the medRxiv server, including the one on travel restrictions, have not been peer-reviewed.)

"Travel restrictions alone do not do much to delay the spread of the disease. Reducing transmissibility is really the key," she said.

Other speakers concurred.
SNIP

Does the "non-essentials" include the un-employment & welfare office, cause that's where those 100k service industry X-employees are headed for food stamps?

RIOTS @ 11pm news.. :mad:

They will never know the true count right now unless they take a small suburb of an area near the rest home - maybe 5,000 folks and just test everybody.

That will give a count of the "unknowns" running through a population.

Comrade De Blasio says the key is to nationalize affected industries to fix the Corona-V problem.

You can bet The Bern and Fumbling Joe(if he remembers) will quote De Blasio until the elections.

2 for 1,, get the Left happy and scare the shit out of the uninformed populace..


Where's that ammo truck when you need it? :munchin

Remember Bill Maher, he prayed for a recession, the D卐M☭CRAT's want to crush the economy.

On closing a restaurant due to COVID-19.

We were open this week end, operated at 80% capacity. We removed a table to allow for some distance between clients. They noticed that consideration. Everyone, including the staff were nervous, you could see it, how people stood apart, or waited until the door way was clear to enter/exit. Once seated they were cool.
Impact of closing is simple, everyone gets hurt. We will take care of our staff financially and with sharing our inventory.

That said, I'm content that we have closed before being ordered to do so. Staying open presents risks that are not worth the return on reputation. imho

A man's gotta protect his toilet paper, right?

That Baltimore situation could get sporty; hope they have cooler heads than back when "give them space to riot" seemed to the plan.

My daughter's close friend runs a kid pre-school and party business. Has 12 staff and is attempting to do right by her staff, but its ruff getting the parents in the door.

My daughter is offering a free cake as an incentive for those that stay as customers.

My cake design suggestion for the give-a-way.

Every minute, every hour, all channels, all the time...Wuhan Coronavirus, COVID-19, Novel SARS-Cov-II, whatever they call today - THE SKY IS FALLING EVERYONE IS GONNA DIE!

In China it’s under control and fewer people everyday are becoming infected and fewer yet are dying. Or they are lying?

In Iran the death rate also seems to be tapering off. (Don’t trust them anymore than the Chinese)

In Italy a country with a very different medical system than any other first world country in the free world and an aging population was exposed to a deadly virus before anyone even knew a tourist most likely walked through every morning market and shook hands and kissed every cheek they could and continued on to the next village and the next until so many people were infected that it was a disaster.

The rest of the world including the United States have fewer than a few thousand known infected people out of billions. Let me say that again...fewer than a few thousand out of billions! And we know where the majority of them got infected.

I’m not seeing this doubling effect and the death rate statistics have not exploded as was feared three weeks to a month ago.

Should the elderly and those with pre-existing health issues stay home, stay away from strangers and order food to be delivered from a trusted source or relative you bet. Should medical staff take extra precautions and clean and disinfect more often between patients you bet!

Should a bunch of college age kids avoid going to a Spring Break drunk fest in Cancun Mexico or Padre Island and party like it’s 1999? I don’t see why not. Same goes for any healthy adult wanting to celebrate St. Paddy’s Day tomorrow.

Just don’t go home and hug grandma and grandpa because you might kill them.

The sky is not falling and every household in America probably had enough toilet paper before the riots in Costco boiled over.

Wash your hands with soap and water, cover your coughs and blow your noses in tissue paper that appears to have survived the toilet paper sell out craze.

This too shall pass!

Turn off the television - the sky is not falling. It’s all political and some of the usual actors are fanning the flames more than others.

If I’m wrong I will be the first to say so. JMHO.

What's up with that? They sell Everclear. It's a disinfectant!

Exactly!!! And reduce enough boiled water & sugar and add bottle of peppermint extract it's downright medicinal!

V Word
 

Don't even say the "V" word.

Close your eyes and imagine:

You just woke up and saw that multiple borders are closing, economies are crashing, and people are acting absurdly. For some reason they left most of the medicine and took all the toilet paper. You have no clue what's going on.

Lesson? It's not JUST what the virus will do, it's what everyone and everything around us will do because of the virus.

I can't see the virus but I can see our children missing the rest of their school year and athletic seasons. Justified or not, it IS happening. Don't worry so much about what started the stampede that you get run over by it.

No immunity
No vaccine
No anti-virals
More contagious than influenza

Common sense suggests that for the moment this is a bit of a different beast.

Sent PM