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- - US officials: Israeli attack on Iran requires 100 planes (http://www.professionalsoldiers.com/forums/showthread.php?t=36893)

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The worse Obama's poll number and the closer we get to the election, the more likely this becomes.

One professor here at ECU, whose expertise is in elections and campaigning, believed President Obama would launch some sort of strike against Iran no later than October. His reasoning being that it would appease/gather support from the Israel Lobby and help in his re-election.

Another professor (Politics of Terrorism), believed Israel would launch a military strike on Iran before May, and if there isn't one, there won't be one for an extended period of time. I sent her the link to the article and asked her if it changed her opinion.

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Eventually democratic opposition movements in Iran may force him out if left to flourish. What "Alf" needs is a unifying external threat to focus Iranian attention on for the next decade.

http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/en/bru..._s_future.html

This is from 2009, so some of this person's thoughts might not be pertinent to the discussion today. Seems as though he thinks Iran will move towards democracy and "Alf" won't hold power for much longer (relatively).

Personally, I don't trust math and computers to tell me what humans will do. :rolleyes:

israel's 98% success rate in military operations, profound sense of self determination and indifference to international scrutiny and approval will win the day...the nation has the political will and emotional buy in needed to endure...my belief is that the israeli's have developed contingencies for any conceivebale development...the us will be holding them off with a whip and a chair...just like desert storm...

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Originally Posted by Broadsword2004 (Post 435772)

We just happen to have the most anti-Israel president since its creation, right when they would need us the most.
If Iran retaliates against the U.S. over Israel, aren't they asking for the U.S. to retaliate back?

Yes, and that might be part of the Israeli strategic calculus to compensate for a lack of military capability. The Israelis essentially have the ability to launch US forces against Iran, abliet at a great cost to US/Israel relations.

Someone want to tell me what the objective of a strike would be?

Give me a mission statement.

TR

Quote:

Originally Posted by scooter (Post 435801)

US or Israeli?

scooter:

What would the objectives of a military strike on Iran be?

Let's start with the strategic objectives for whoever is likely to participate in this party.

Diplomatic?
Informational?
Military?
Economic?

Then provide the purpose, mission, end state, and risk.

TR

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Originally Posted by The Reaper (Post 435802)

Those are the key questions before planning any party and until they are laid out everything else is fantasy and speculation.

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Originally Posted by Brush Okie (Post 435808)

Objective- Military

Purpose- eliminate Iran's current or future ability posses and use nuclear weapons.

Mission- Destroy nuclear production and current nuclear stockpiles if any

End State- Iran has no more nuclear material or the ability to produce nuclear material capable of producing nuclear weapons.

Risk- Very high could start WW-III and trigger a nuclear exchange between major world powers.

I nor do a majority of the people on the board have enough intel on where how etc Iran is producing and where it is being done at IMHO. The question is does the US and or Israeli have enough knowledge to get it all? Lets face it there are no good choices on this problem just bad and worse.

Have we exhausted our Diplomatic, Informational, and Economic options already?

TR

There are still some economic tools.

Step 1: Through some money printing and supply restriction (need some cooperation from the Saudis), run up the price of oil for a few months.

Step 2: Wait for Iran to start contracting in currencies other than the dollar (they start doing that on March 20).

Step 3: Once the contracting starts, tighten up the money supply and open the supply spigots (need some cooperation for the Saudis, again) which drives down dollar-denominated oil and undercuts their sales.

Bit of a convoluted way to punch them in the wallet, but it might work.
Bad economy and a young population makes ripe ground for starting revolutions.

Would decapitation of the current and second-string regime leadership be an effective option as opposed to going after the nuclear targets?

The last thing Obama and the Dems want is $6-$8 a gallon gas. They will do everything they can to avoid a military confrontation, at least until after November 2012....