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View Poll Results: If Iraq is democratized, will the rest of the Middle East follow?
Yes 7 23.33%
No 23 76.67%
Other (please explain) 0 0%
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Old 03-14-2004, 18:57   #1
Roguish Lawyer
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The Reverse Domino Theory

If we are successful in democratizing, and to some extent Westernizing, Iraq, do you believe the rest of the Middle East will follow?
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Old 03-14-2004, 20:38   #2
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I do believe that the devout belief in Islam will prevent it form happening. As long as all the power is given to the Religious Fatwa then democracy does not have a chance.
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Old 03-17-2004, 13:11   #3
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I'm going to try one bump to see if this one will catch. I believe that there is a difference of opinion on the issue among influential posters on the board, but we'll see.

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Old 03-17-2004, 14:05   #4
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RL, If we were successful in democratizing Iraq it would mean an entire ideology had been changed in the ME.

Could it happen, well were all watching and waiting. Remember this, unlike western nations the ME is still ruled by “tribes” and religious tribal leaders. If we were to pull out tomorrow all these tribes would be fighting before the last US military plane took off.

Most Americans do not take this into account when forming opinions on the ME. As far as a “civilized nations” most nations of the ME (while sporting the latest technologies) are still one step ahead of the cavemen, kind of like the Beverly Hillbillies, a whole lot of instant money doesn’t make you ANY smarter. (Ever heard of the Saudi Space Program? While they’ve got the money for such ventures they do not possess the brain power requisite to begin such an endeavor.)

Would the rest of the ME follow suit? If and only if we were truly successful with Iraq could it even have a chance. When the people of the ME have had enough of being led by the nose by over zealous religious leaders will the will the winds of change blow.

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(I know someone is going to jump on this post and take up for the six Saudi Harvard graduates that bought a degree and returned to their eleven wives and multimillion back accounts, and I would say to you, “bring it on”.)
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Old 03-17-2004, 14:23   #5
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I don't see it happening. Too many tribes, too much money, and too much religion. If it did happen, it would be like the Balkans under the Soviets: simmering, waiting for the right moment to explode.
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Old 03-17-2004, 14:27   #6
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I see it failing as well

Tribal and religous divisions run too deep
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Old 03-17-2004, 15:02   #7
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Quote:
Originally posted by DunbarFC
I see it failing as well

Tribal and religous divisions run too deep
I say that theory is bunk.

Many who know more than myself say that Afghanistan is more of a challange than Iraq in terms of 'tribal' conflict management. I just finished reading 'Tribal Leadership of the Swat Pathans' and 'Friend by Day, Enemy by Night : Organized Vengeance in a Kohistani Community'

Many of their social structures are rooted in liberty and their form of governance is a social contract on steroids.

I don't want to write a thesis here, but bringing them around is certainly doable (if it is not I'd rather not give up before trying).

We just have to change the entire culture.
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Old 03-17-2004, 15:06   #8
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I was speaking more to RL's reverse Domino Theory for the entire Mideast not just Iraq itself

As for changing their entire culture - both Iraq and then the Mid East beyond that - I'd love to hear ideas on how to do it.
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Old 03-17-2004, 15:13   #9
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Originally posted by Jimbo
We just have to change the entire culture.
Jimbo, I respect the hell out of you, but do you really think that is possible, to change the entire culture? Or were you being facetious and I missed it?
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Old 03-17-2004, 15:19   #10
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Originally posted by CommoGeek
Jimbo, I respect the hell out of you, but do you really think that is possible, to change the entire culture? Or were you being facetious and I missed it?
Yeah. I mean it. I really don't know if its possible, but I know it has to happen.

For about a year and a half I was hoping someone in the Middle East would step up and start advocating some reforms, but that didn't happen so,...

Last edited by Jimbo; 03-17-2004 at 15:21.
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Old 03-17-2004, 15:20   #11
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Quote:
Originally posted by DunbarFC
IAs for changing their entire culture - both Iraq and then the Mid East beyond that - I'd love to hear ideas on how to do it.
It’s being done right in front of you (and them), a true hearts and minds campaign.
You’re too focused on the fighting to see what’s really happening in Iraq. If we continue on current course we may see the beginning of an awaking within the ME people soon enough.

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Old 03-17-2004, 15:43   #12
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Quote:
Originally posted by Jimbo
Yeah. I mean it. I really don't know if its possible, but I know it has to happen.

For about a year and a half I was hoping someone in the Middle East would step up and start advocating some reforms, but that didn't happen so,...
I agree that it needs to happen, it has to happen, but I'm a cynic and don't see it happening, not soon at least.

Do we need to change everyone or the youth? Are the elders in that region too set in their ways to change and so we have to target the 40-under crowd and strive for change in 10 years when they have dominant roles in society?

The ME needs to see that it can be done, democracy that is, and then maybe other countries will follow.

Good thread, it is making me think.
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Old 03-17-2004, 16:53   #13
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Quote:
Originally posted by Team Sergeant
It’s being done right in front of you (and them), a true hearts and minds campaign.
You’re too focused on the fighting to see what’s really happening in Iraq. If we continue on current course we may see the beginning of an awaking within the ME people soon enough.

Team Sergeant
The problem is that a Fatwa has already been issued to negate the constitution. While many want to see democracy succeed, there are enough religious zealots to screw it up. Look at Iran, as soon as it appeared that the mullahs were about to lose power they just declared the opposition to be ineligible.

I can see the Shiites forceing control and then it will be come a little Iran. It has already been stated that they are seeking a governement similar to Iran's. That in itself ends democracy.

No, I do not believe that will take in the ME. Fundamentalists willnot allow it. They will continue to stir up trouble until the win, the most likely scenerio, or the general population realizes that the Mullahs are not in favor of what is good for the people.

My best scenerio is to split Iraq into three sections, and seed democracy into those three sections. One will take root and that will be the model. If left one country then the Shiites will win.

Of course I'm an old fart and may not understand the modern world, then again the ME is an old fart part fo the world.
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Old 03-17-2004, 18:19   #14
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If we are successful at democracizing Iraq, it will spread to the surrounding nations, probably Iran first. It will take years, and will be incremental, but is close to inevitable because of economic reasons, not cultural reasons. Cultures find ways to accept things, to adjust to things, when it directly affects the quality of life for their children. You can look at South East Asia for examples (where Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and China have all adopted many western norms and local democracy despite the Communist infrastructure... because of market issues).

The question becomes whether we can successfully sheppard a representative form of government forward in Iraq, and I think we can IF the people involved are creative in how they arrange the balance of power and the checks and balances in order to allow the people to feel their culture has been respected and at the same time limit the religious power in the government.

Tribes have been brought together before in democratic federations, no reason that Iraq cannot be.
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Old 03-17-2004, 18:48   #15
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Take a look at Baharain and Qatar, they are definitely making gains on trying to come into the 21st century.

Iraq has that possibility also. It's just going to take some time on getting the different groups to agree on, "what's best for the future of Iraq".

Afghanistan! I wouldn't even involve them in the equation at this point. What can they export besides opium?
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