Future Theaters

[_Hopeful11]

Hello all. I was having this discussion with a few friends last night and thought it would be interesting to see what the QPs on here had to say.

With the war in Afghanistan winding down, where do you expect the next big issue to arise? Russia/Ukraine? Syria? North Korea? South America somewhere? Obviously not limiting the discussion to these areas, I am more curious as to what the QPs think the future may hold for the U.S.

[spottedmedic111]

Whoa. You mentioned you were enrolled in a Master’s program in intelligence collection. I guess they no longer teach subtlety at U of PRC (j/k).

[_Hopeful11]

Yes... give me all of your secrets America! **maniacal laugh*** lol.

But seriously, was not looking for insider information and i have no desire to know where our troops are heading now. Just musings based on your knowledge of global issues and politics from open sources.

[Joker]

Every major town has a theater, some with more than 20 screens.

Why would anyone answer this and potentially put their, their teammates, or families at risk?

It might just be me, but think OPSEC.

[MR2]

I''m thinking Hollywierd - Green Berets are due for a run of movies based on books written by SEALs.

[_Hopeful11]

Noted. My apologies. I understand what you are all saying regarding OPSEC and I most definitely do not want to endanger any soldiers by airing the details here. Poor phrasing for my question perhaps or a lack of understanding of the full scope of operational security? PT will be done accordingly to atone for this mistake.

[Basenshukai]

Originally Posted by _Hopeful11

Noted. My apologies. I understand what you are all saying regarding OPSEC and I most definitely do not want to endanger any soldiers by airing the details here. Poor phrasing for my question perhaps or a lack of understanding of the full scope of operational security? PT will be done accordingly to atone for this mistake.

You are not asking anything that is not being asked, answered, or written about by think-tanks all over the beltway (Brookings Institute, Center of Advanced Defense Studies, Strategic Studies Institute, etc), JSOU, NDU, the War College, or NPS. There are tons of unclassified, well researched, and academically sound papers (analysis, investigation, conclusions), written by SF, SEALs, MISO and CA, both officers and senior NCOs (NDU accepts SOF NCOs who qualify for the course).

I know some folks may act like merely asking that simple question is an OPSEC violation; IT IS NOT. Asking what a unit might be specifically preparing for (OPLANs, etc.) IS.

Though, obviously, the two subjects will intersect at some point, giving an educated opinion on the matter -- like guessing that the next theater may be AFRICOM, or Asia, or something like that -- is not an OPSEC matter.

Heck, go to the OPENLY available "National Defense Strategic Guidance" in defense.gov and most of your answer will be there.

[spottedmedic111]

I'm sure Hopefull11 is a patriot. I just don' tknow if PS wants to be the go-to for informed and customized responses to FIS trolls out there. I'm sure this site is scrutinized as it is, but why make iy easy. That said, it's a free country (still).

[Basenshukai]

Originally Posted by spottedmedic111

I'm sure Hopefull11 is a patriot. I just don' tknow if PS wants to be the go-to for informed and customized responses to FIS trolls out there. I'm sure this site is scrutinized as it is, but why make iy easy. That said, it's a free country (still).

Ok. Then, no informed discussion on unclassified aspects of our profession, foreign affairs, geopolitics, and geostartegy from now on. Sounds like a viable plan.

[Peregrino]

Originally Posted by Basenshukai

Ok. Then, no informed discussion on unclassified aspects of our profession, foreign affairs, geopolitics, and geostrategy from now on. Sounds like a viable plan.

LMAO! Absolutely right. Hopefully, Hopeful11 will use the OS list you provided, do some reading/studying, and develop his own informed opinion (because I personally get tired of answering endless questions that a little self-motivated research and thought could have answered easily and thoroughly). Besides, I'd much rather discuss "whys" than regurgitate "whats".

[Pete]

Back in the old days I would have said just watch the news - but for the most part the MSM has very little news in it. And they are always about 3 days behind on normal stuff.

I prefer the online BBC site. From the main page you can hit Middle East, Africa, Asia, etc and then get a wrap up of that area's news.

With that you can get a "working knowledge" of what's happening around the world.

[Box]

What do you mean the MSM has very little news in it?

Vivian Stiviano was assaulted near her hotel room in NY
Justin Bieber made some racist statements
Phil Mikkelson has been invovled in some shifty stock trading

...what kind of news are you looking for?

[Airbornelawyer]

The "next big issue" is likely to arise in some area hardly anyone was thinking about beforehand. You really have two choices: identify every possible contingency, no matter how remote it seems now, resulting in a list too long to really be useful, or identify what you think are the likeliest contigencies based on current trends, only to see the next balloon go up somewhere you weren't thinking about.

Whose reaction to the Argentinian invasion of the Falklands was "yeah, saw that one coming"? How many people had even heard of Grenada before 1983? Of all the Persian Gulf contingencies that were wargamed before 1987, how many do you suppose involved US-flagged Kuwaiti tankers and both Iraqi and Iranian attacks on US vessels? In July 1990, virtually no international security specialist I knew thought Iraq was doing more than saber-rattling. With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the "end of history", I doubt many eyes were turning to Somalia, Bosnia and Kosovo, though I suppose yet another Haitian intervention was predictable.

On the flip-side, the list of possible contingencies which did not come to pass is also quite long, though in some cases, such as another Korean War, it may just be a matter of time. In the early 1990s, I had a colleague in the intelligence community who thought either a North Korean invasion or collapse was likely before the end of the decade. Also in the 1990s, I thought the insurgency in Colombia was heading toward direct US intervention. In 2003, a large-scale intervention in Liberia seemed like a distinct possibility.

BTW, Pete's suggestion is a good one. As long as you are savvy enough to observe and correct for their biases, the BBC is good at covering events in obscure places the mainstream media ignore. The VOA and RFE/RL are also good. Even al-Jazeera has its uses - the bias may be worse, but the network has more on-the-ground coverage of the Muslim world than any of the American or European networks.

[Basenshukai]

Those are all good comments. I maintain a Stratfor subscription and have access to the National Defense University library and this helps keeping an eye on what may be next. Besides, it keeps my mind sharp.

[rohlfs]

Without violating OPSEC, does it seem plausible that the United States could send SF FID advisers into current hotspots such as Syria or Ukraine? Or would that be the jurisdiction of CIA SAD?