Wuhan Coronavirus

[Trapper John]

Originally Posted by mugwump

Looked into it. Total fabrication by the news service. It’s not even in Phase I, it’s in preclinical animals trials only.

CDC is being pretty forthright throughout all this, and they say “12-18 months at best” because there are a lot of doubts about developing an effective vaccine at all. “We can put a man on the moon but we can’t cure the common cold” because the common cold is a coronavirus, and coronaviruses are really, really good at evading and degrading our immune system. Failed CV vaccines they’ve come up with in the past have tended to fade very quickly.

Glad you caught this
Best case scenario is to use synthetic DNA technology to produce a trial vaccine tested in animals. That would take at least 3 months. Then establishing a satisfactory manufacturing process with QC standards would require another 3 months. Conduct of the IND enabling safety and toxicology would require another 6 months. That's 12 months to the first-in-human clinical trials. Therefore we are looking at 12-18 months for a commercial vaccine.

BTW whenever you read about a vaccine being "discovered" disregard. Vaccines are not "discovered"

[Old Dog New Trick]

Vaccines aren’t cures either they are preventive measures taken before exposure. Unless one serves in the military and is destined to spend time in an affected area the majority of the world population will not be inoculated against any specific diseases or viruses.

Just like getting a flu shot every year to protect from getting it the CDC has to throw a dart at the influenza dart board months before and hope they hit the right strain predicted to be most prevalent. So the proper vaccine will be formulated and stockpiled for distribution.

The only likely people to get inoculated are healthcare professionals and those susceptible to become hosts. So anyone who wins the race to produce a viable and tested anti-virus vaccine...good job.

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by Trapper John

Glad you caught this
Best case scenario is to use synthetic DNA technology to produce a trial vaccine tested in animals. That would take at least 3 months. Then establishing a satisfactory manufacturing process with QC standards would require another 3 months. Conduct of the IND enabling safety and toxicology would require another 6 months. That's 12 months to the first-in-human clinical trials. Therefore we are looking at 12-18 months for a commercial vaccine.

BTW whenever you read about a vaccine being "discovered" disregard. Vaccines are not "discovered"

Excellent synopsis of the timeline, thanks. At least we're not using fertile eggs like in the H5N1 era.

I’m not a NWO guy, but we need an international biowarfare treaty with inspection teeth and a concurrent assumption that countries/NGOs are going to keep cooking up bugs in defiance. Crank up the CDC budget and make their mission getting a vaccine in place in six months. And assume some civilian loon will assemble smallpox just because the genome is published and the desktop technology allows it.

Genetic engineering is getting stupid easy to accomplish. A million bucks and a good postdoc and you can accomplish a lot of mischief. I shudder every time I see one of those Oxford/U of TX/Berkeley loons on ******* spouting off about how humans need to be wiped out to save mother Gaia.

[mugwump]

Pardon my French

[tom kelly]

This is my thinking on this topic of CoVID-19 disease. The virus is SARS-CoV-2 a novel coronavirus some people think was being investigated for development by Naval University of Engineering Virology Lab of Dr. Chen Wi who is a Maj.Gen. in the Chinese Military,Her lab is in Wuhan China and that installation was the FIRST to be locked down by the Gov. on Jan.2, 2020 18 days before China admitted there was an epidemic & 21 days before the city of Wuhan was locked down (pop.11 million). Was Dr. Chen's lab looking for a vaccine or a biological weapon? Dr. Chen Wi is China's top Biowarfare expert. Now that this pathogen is worldwide it will get a lot of attention because it can be deadly, easily spread, difficult to contain,(this particular virus can hang around @9 days on a surface) There is currently NO VACCINE available in the marketplace to combat a worldwide pandemic. If there was a vaccine that was effective it would need clinical trials before production & distribution. The scale-up for a worldwide production by a pharmaceutical company would be very expensive & probably not profitable. Glaxo SK (England) lost big $$$$ on the SARS 2003 .The other 2 companies in the world capable of this vaccine production are Sandofi in France and Merck in the USA.

[InTheBlack]

Originally Posted by mugwump

assume some civilian loon will assemble smallpox just because the genome is published and the desktop technology allows it.

Not if the firmware prevents it. Same way that copy machines won't duplicate money - machine shuts down & phones home too.

Also all desktop printers microprint their unique ID number in yellow on every page. That's why they won't work without a yellow ink cartridge installed.

Governments can print enough money to fund accelerated vaccines -- the question is whether they will commit to it in time. And the totalitarian states won't be shy about testing on humans right away. Plenty of prisoners available.

[InTheBlack]

What are the hazards of an untested vaccine? Mostly that it just won't work, or that the vaccine will kill you?

During a pandemic, you could develop a dozen candidate vaccines and administer them randomly. You would know pretty quick which one works.

[Old Dog New Trick]

Originally Posted by InTheBlack

What are the hazards of an untested vaccine? Mostly that it just won't work, or that the vaccine will kill you?

During a pandemic, you could develop a dozen candidate vaccines and administer them randomly. You would know pretty quick which one works.

The vaccine is generally the disease in which you plan to build antibodies or antigens to fend off. So at the wrong concentration you get the disease and die or you are not protected against the disease and you die. (Well, get really sick)

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by InTheBlack

What are the hazards of an untested vaccine? Mostly that it just won't work, or that the vaccine will kill you?

During a pandemic, you could develop a dozen candidate vaccines and administer them randomly. You would know pretty quick which one works.

No, you wouldn’t know. You can just inoculate and then expose, that’s...frowned upon. They can measure antibody titers but it’s not always the whole story. Effectiveness is often assessed statistically, vaccines are always less than 100% effective.

There will hopefully be >1 candidate but there’s a large resource expenditure for each one. And I’m not talking $$$. Only so many people know how to do this stuff.

Manufacturing and distributing an ineffective vaccine is a public health disaster. All risk, no benefit, wasted time.

[mugwump]

The CCP is just despicable. 3,000, not 1,700 HCW, infected with 1,688 in severe/critical condition. People are making plans to fight this virus that the Chinese let loose and they lie through their teeth about every critical stat.

A team at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) studied 72,314 cases as of Feb. 11, among which 44,672 were confirmed cases of coronavirus. The sweeping study was published Monday by the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology.

The researchers found that 3,019 medical workers had been infected, among whom 1,688 patients were in severe or critical condition. As of Feb. 11, the government acknowledged more than 1,700 medical workers nationwide as confirmed with the disease, almost 90% of them in Hubei, according to Chinese National Health Commission deputy chief Zeng Yixin at a press conference Friday.

I don’t see a count of HCW deaths, but they do say that 49% of those in critical condition died.

[abc_123]

At what point to you simply triage and isolate to avoid the exposure (and death) risk of medical professionals and resource expenditure?

Infected Male over 60yrs old....this way please..

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by InTheBlack

Not if the firmware prevents it. Same way that copy machines won't duplicate money - machine shuts down & phones home too.

Well first of all, they don’t do that with sequencers now, and this field is moving so fast that its really difficult to keep up. New capabilities, new gear. Second, while I don’t recommend it without some serious study, you'd be shocked to see what’s for sale on dark markets, including EEPROMs that are plug and play replacements for the mask ROMs that prevent currency copying.

Or, you can just skip the ROM chip rigamarole and buy suitcases full of counterfeit currency that’s reported to be very credible. They grade it as to its pass-ability, just like bonds, from BB- to AA. Even the lowest grade fools those yellow marker pens, pay a bit more and the stuff passes the little zip scanners that stores are now using.

The same garage shop market is going to develop for genetic engineering if it doesn’t already exist. There'll be contract biochem service providers, which I hope are being rooted out with extreme prejudice if they exist now. That said, strong encryption, bitcoin scrubbers, and a keen sense of paranoia could make finding these cats pretty difficult.

Just attempting to do this stuff could wipe out civilization.

Rogue nation states are always with us. Iran, NK, well, everyone including us, are doing this stuff now. Iran has to be looking at China and going “hmmm...that works much better than I imagined.”

The genie is out of the bottle. We need a crash program to develop the capability to produce vaccines in short, short time frames. National priority.

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by abc_123

At what point to you simply triage and isolate to avoid the exposure (and death) risk of medical professionals and resource expenditure?

Infected Male over 60yrs old....this way please..

They’re past the >60 yo male, stage. They’re talking treating anyone is too big a risk. Just send them home and good luck to you. I doubt they will, the rage would be incandescent, but it’s certainly a logical if cold-blooded position.

[Trapper John]

Originally Posted by mugwump

Excellent synopsis of the timeline, thanks. At least we're not using fertile eggs like in the H5N1 era.

I’m not a NWO guy, but we need an international biowarfare treaty with inspection teeth and a concurrent assumption that countries/NGOs are going to keep cooking up bugs in defiance. Crank up the CDC budget and make their mission getting a vaccine in place in six months. And assume some civilian loon will assemble smallpox just because the genome is published and the desktop technology allows it.

Genetic engineering is getting stupid easy to accomplish. A million bucks and a good postdoc and you can accomplish a lot of mischief. I shudder every time I see one of those Oxford/U of TX/Berkeley loons on ******* spouting off about how humans need to be wiped out to save mother Gaia.

I like the way you think! I wrote a scenario a while back on just that point. Much of my professional life has been and still is directed towards the development of the appropriate medical countermeasures. In my twisted mind, it's not a question of "If" it's a question of "When". But I'm guessing that you understand that twisted thinking?

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by Trapper John

I like the way you think! I wrote a scenario a while back on just that point. Much of my professional life has been and still is directed towards the development of the appropriate medical countermeasures. In my twisted mind, it's not a question of "If" it's a question of "When". But I'm guessing that you understand that twisted thinking?

It’s nice to know someone's looking ahead. Every time I’ve gotten involved in these things it’s been a panicky game of catch-up. Incredibly stupid.

On the good news front and in line with a proactive approach, Singapore looks Ike they may have beaten this back, at least for now. Community spread is fading and they’re barely keeping up with contact tracing, but barely is good enough.

Do you follow Prime Minister Lee? Amazing guy with amazing cooperation among the Singaporeans. He credits everything to the people—and good luck.

He never takes credit but he’s personally met with taxi drivers, HCWs, hospitality workers, finance groups...and he leaves behind actionable policy directives and a sense of optimism.

Taxi drivers know how to asses symptoms in their fares, exactly where to bring someone w symptoms, how to warn the hospital ER teams they’re coming, how to protect themselves and decontaminate their taxis...Same same with hotel workers, office workers, etc. Damn impressive.

Japan on the other hand is teetering. Fingers crossed.