Team Selection, Scenario One

[The Reaper]

A new scenario, upon request and after watching the American Blackout TV show (admittedly a flawed presentation).

The balloon has gone up, the Feds are declaring martial law, shutting down the banks and infrastructure, and you are beating feet while heading to your bug out location or holing up at home.

You are given twelve hours advance warning of the impending martial law enforcement. You are able to make a shopping run (within your cash on hand) and hunker down at home, or alternately, load up your vehicle with everything you can afford on your "wish list", and gas up on the way out of town. So if you have properly prepared, you should be fairly well stocked. Remember though. One year's food supply for a family of four drops to six months worth with four additions to your group. The duration of the state of emergency and the degree of outside support is uncertain. It may last a year or more, but it will be at least four weeks.

While we can cover last minute what to buy and what to bring lists again, the intent of this thread is whether you contact additional personnel to come with you or try and rough it out alone.

Obviously, your immediate family is going to stay/go with you.

Who do you bring (or invite to your home to ride the storm out) or collect on the way?

What criteria do you use to select them? Is there some sort of selection and assessment process? Or will you take their word for it?

Do you believe that you will be better off alone or with additional team members?

Does anyone think they would prefer to go it solo, with no family or friends?

If you are inviting others to join you, do they have their own supplies, or are you planning to provide for them?

Will you recruit people with useful skills? What if they are travelling with their families? What if they are travelling with their families and have few, if any resources with them? A physician could be handy to have. One with a wife and seven kids and little else may not, unless you are exceedingly well-prepared.

What would you consider the minimum number of people you need to do the chores and provide security for your group? Have you considered the skills you might need in your group? What is the maximum number you think you can provide for?

Will you try and feed the people you encounter along the way, or your neighbors, if you stay home? How about strangers you encounter? If they have kids?

No right or wrong answers, as long as you can justify your decisions.

We will examine a couple of additional scenarios, if this is well-received.

Thanks!

TR

[Sdiver]

Wow ... This is going to be good.

I can say, with at least 12 hours notice, I would make a couple of attempts of people whom I know and trust to attempt a meet/link up and travel together. They of course would be bringing to the plate various skills and have in their own way(s) prepped for just such a scenario.

If I was unable to get into contact with them, I would be cautious and selective on who I brought into my area. General aptitudes I would want someone to have would be, the ability to survive in the out of doors (some family who was able to get out of town just in time and the only time they've ever seen an animal up close was when they went on a trip to the zoo wouldn't cut it), someone who is prior (or AD) military would be a huge plus. This would instill in the fact that they know some semblance of order, discipline and team work. That last one, Team Work, being the most compelling aptitude. Do they know what true team work is, or are they more prone to rock the boat and be an antagonist?

As far as individual skills would go, yes, having someone with medical skills would be huge. MDs, DDSs, heck even a Psychiatrist (they have an MD) would be top notch. An electrician and a mechanic would rank near the top as well. Anyone with any type of vocational type training would be beneficial as well.

If I were to meet, anyone without those types of qualifications, I don't think I'd be too inclined to bring them in.
"What is it that you do?"
"I was a secretary in a legal office."
"Okay, thank you. Best of luck to you."

The big thing would be trust. Can you trust the people whom you've connected up with? Are they the type to turn on you when they feel the time would be right? Being a judge of character would be the biggest thing I think we'd all have to rely on in a scenario like this.

[Pete]

I'm screwed.

I'd be dragging along four screamers to begin with.

Unless, unless - there is a young unattached 18D and an 18B in the area that wants to throw in with us. You'd have to bring your own MRE's.

I'll have to ride it out in place and make sure the neighbors are well armed and organized. Best guess on my block is 50% active or retired - mostly retired.

[35NCO]

I saw the show as well, and as it is not really related, it did bring up some previous thoughts I had to these scenarios. (NOT IN ANY WAY A "PREPPER")

I think the reality of the whole "bug out vs bunker down" scenario is solely based on location. Some thoughts from my personal experience of a few minor disasters.

One point that show made which was pretty good to the new trend of "American peppers" is that if you spend a lot of time setting up your "bug out location" in the open, people are likely to notice. It especially highlights the aspects of considering the remoteness of the site and any tactical considerations. If it has neighbors at all, it will not work. If it can be seen, it likely will not work. Unless you can somehow work with your neighbors. That also opens the door to the trust issues as well, whom will they tell and are they useful at all?

Another issue: Travel to a "bug out"...

When I was in DC area during the earthquake (last year?) I was maybe 10 miles from home and completely unable to drive, let alone move my car for hours. I ended up walking home. Some roads remained locked up for a few days afterwards from abandoned cars. It took that moment to dawn on me that getting out of a city area like that is pretty much impossible in a car or truck in ANY disaster or otherwise. This was also not IN the city but more outside getting closer to Baltimore. On foot or maybe a motorcycle/bicycle would be the only option to escape.

Then to consider how far do you have to go and can you sustain that trek? Having good maps would be a serious consideration with preplanned routes and contingency routes.

During the huge snow blizzard that hit DC and Baltimore a few years before the quake, I was locked in a third floor apartment with my newborn daughter and wife. Outside was a minor 2 1/2 to 3 feet of snow, but continuous fall. Surprise, MD did not own any snow plows and nor did base. The roads would not be plowed at all for two weeks. Again, travel was pretty much impossible unless you had a large truck with good Four wheel. Even so, the road was littered with buried cars and people that got ten feet and then got stuck. For that occasion I had to ruck to the Grocery store to bring back supplies. Pretty close to the reality of everything shutting down scenario. Even that base closed. Everyone was un-prepared including the Army and the government, go figure. (I waited in line for 6 hours to get a snow shovel, should have known better, but really had zero expectation of things getting that bad. After 6 hours people physically started to beat each other just for the chance to just buy one lousy Chinese snow shovel...)

Rally point, Regrouping with family if separated:

After the immediate effects of what could be considered an absolutely minor quake, there was no Comms at all available. No land line, no Cell, nothing...(Maybe Ham or CB, but not available to me at the time) So Comms are a serious issue if there was not any temp EMP effects from whatever may have happened. Along with that the logistics of power. (Batterys, hand crank, generator, wind, solar, etc.)


To Travel with others/Bunker down/Bug out

TR, you addressed some excellent questions. One thought that really lingers in my mind is that even if you are prepared to some extent, why would anyone WANT to travel with you? There would be some people skills involved beyond whatever tactical mindset a person in need of a fellow traveler/help may have.

As military I can see that we might see things as looking for other useful survivalist people or other military and vets. However, as the "in between" there may be those that cannot avoid the natural point of breaking to the dog eat dog mentality. I would think that it would not take long for the "others" I guess to start feeling the need to attack anyone for their own various needs of food/water/shelter.

(perhaps a selection is necessary without proven credentials. How do you know how far you can trust a person before they brake and become a selfish beast to your own misery?)

So with that, the approach of, "I need your help" seems like it would be a careful psychology and perhaps barter. It would require somehow being sure to build that trust and report but also making sure there is something there for both the parties in the short and long run. Which I understand is a scenario right up there for a SF qualified and experienced soldier. Just maybe not as much as the regulars out there. My point is, that if you needed to bring more people or even another person, you would need to be a "people person" or at least good at understanding how to negotiate carefully through situations when people suddenly shift from people to animal. Those "animals" could also be family and friends. Dealing with Irrationality with people you care about sucks.


(And as the show addressed, don't bring your daughters Boyfriend...That kid will get you killed. )

[Barbarian]

Originally Posted by The Reaper

Scenario

Excellent scenario. Involves many complicated questions/decisions. I will prepare a response.

[Team Sergeant]

Just wait until I get past a few drafts in my head......

[MtnGoat]

Originally Posted by Pete

I'm screwed.

I'd be dragging along four screamers to begin with.

Unless, unless - there is a young unattached 18D and an 18B in the area that wants to throw in with us. You'd have to bring your own MRE's.

I'll have to ride it out in place and make sure the neighbors are well armed and organized. Best guess on my block is 50% active or retired - mostly retired.

You have a boat Pete, I'm on the same boat but with three dragging along.

Great idea TR

[Attila]

With are family farms we have housing and food for up to 200+ and Know all the farmers from I 94 to the Mississippi river. The county sheriff is are next door neighbor. We kill 20 to 30 deer every Nov. so we all have guns and know how to use them.

last deer hunting we had 32 hunters, last 4th of July we hosted 95 family members at are farm for 3 to 4 days. Land, Grain, Fuel, Water and Livestock we have plenty of.

[mugwump]

This may be a bit of a tangent thread-wise, but relevant overall. Check out http://shtfschool.com by a guy named Selco. Fascinating stuff. My daughter's BFF from college recommended it to me. She's a former Bosniak, now a US citizen, who was a girl in Sarajavo during the siege. (She's working about 90 mi from the farm and knows she has a place at the table. Total sweetheart, sharp as a tack, looks like a princess but hard as woodpecker lips, has medical training, CCWs every day and runs an AK like a boss. She's a young woman who learned some hard lessons at an early age. Here's hoping one of the sons wakes up. )

This Selco guy is cagey about the locale (BFF insists Sarajavo) but he relates his experiences surviving in a former Yugo city during the war. He talks about the shockingly quick breakdown of order, building a defensive clan, avoiding attention, bartering strategies, gangs, the large numbers of 'good' people who go over to the dark side (and then reintegrate after the war ends...he's quite pragmatic and forgiving), items that were valuable and things that were useless, movement in a city overtaken by anarchy, religion and ethics, the city versus the countryside--it's really quite fascinating. It started out as a blog and has evolved to having "coursework" for sale but the vast majority of the articles and advice are free. Highly recommended. Be ready to lose a few hours. The newest entries are on top; I recommend starting on the last page and moving up.

[The Reaper]

Yep.

I've read his stuff, and its good.

TR

[mugwump]

I've had several serious talks with the daughter's BFF over the last three years. She's in total agreement with me about city/suburbs versus the country in a survival situation and she's all for preparing for the worst and fighting to preserve your place. But what has impressed me is her unshakable position that for every 2 hours spent preparing a homestead--security, water, food, sanitation, etc.--I should spend at least one hour on plans to flee from it. She definitely believes that you never really own more than you can carry at a dead run. Her recommendation is to plant caches all around a retreat in widening circles. Nothing fancy: a hotel size bar of soap, a Bic lighter, a can with a wire bail, a razor blade, couple bottles of water, dried soup and tea, etc. Nothing extensive but enough to keep you moving. In the closer ring of caches have old shoes, coats, mittens, hats. Basically anything too worn out for everyday use goes into a black garbage bag and gets cached. A map to all of the caches are in one of the old shoes in each close cache. She laughed when I said it was a security risk: "If they're chasing you you're dead so why worry? They'll be too busy eating your food and chasing your chickens."

Her family had to run three times and each time the conditions at the destination were worse than what they came from. Once they were driven into the countryside in inclement weather with the kids in nightclothes. Hence the shoe/clothes caches.

I must admit I haven't followed her advice yet.

[Sdiver]

Interesting how a lot of the responses here, you would stay and defend the "homestead." Personally, I'd like to take my chances away from major metropolitan areas.

Like Tomahawk said, here in Denver, people would be heading up to the "mystical" safety of the mountains, that's why I would look (and already have a route(s) picked out) south and east. I do have a route south and west up into the hills if needed, but if possible, given this scenario, with 12 hour notice, I'd most definitely be heading south and east.

The one thing I'd be thi9nking about heading that way is, there's not a whole hell of a lot of cover. Lots of wide open spaces. So traveling would interesting. Do I do it during the day, where you can see someone traveling from miles away, or do I travel at night and run the risk of being seen with IR detection? May have to look at getting thermal blankets and place over the hood of the truck while I travel, and then only travel for short distances (10-15 miles) at a time to keep it from getting "super hot" and creating a big IR signature.

More things to think about.

[Flagg]

We had a couple REAL bad earthquakes here a few years back.

Enough to see our part of the city without electricity, water, and sewerage out for extended periods(weeks to months).

I was a 12 on/24 off cordon commander and during my 24 "off" my guys and I still worked sourcing and distributing potable water in pretty substantial quantity(thousands of litres a day) to our own neighborhoods.

We developed a pretty efficient distribution system around convenient neighborhood hubs(street side in front of an active community member's garage), brought non-serving folks into it, and slowly pulled ourselves out of it to get some rest and allow us to focus on some other stuff.

We tried a "stone soup" exercise....which both worked and failed.....we put in things like pasta and thawing freezer meat...and the neighbors put in their "stones" and ate it.

But they got the message and thawing food was used for neighborhood BBQs sharing LPG bottles and BBQs which helped to bind ultra-local ties.

Being in the middle of summer helped.

But to be honest, the community engagement side of it went really well....it bound our community together a bit better(already good coms/relations)...and since I had arranged the water....people listened and acted when I made a few suggestions.

Nearly 3 years later my wife was just asked by someone who just moved in if it was her husband who organized water for everyone.

The only downside for us was the unfortunate case of a serving soldier("peer" NCO) living nearby who dumped his hysterical family on mine while I was on the job.

His wife and teenaged kids going nuts with ZERO pantry food or stored water. My wife gave them 2 days worth and kicked them off our property due to behavioral issues with the encouragement of our rottweiler. Thankfully, he is out of the unit and out of the neighbourhood.

The rest of the neighbours were all around above average. We found the folks to rely on were the older/retired but still active folks happy to take on the role of ultra-local "glue" a couple of houses in every direction.

Coms was a biggie......organizing my soldiers and coms with chain of command was mostly by txt message due to voice traffic overload.

Then the battery back ups on the cell towers failed on about day 3.

And it took a bit to sort out gennie recharging until mains power was back on.

I've been recently fiddling with a mesh network smart phone app that can daisy chain voice/txt/data via smart phone.......but it requires the ability to recharge phones as well as phone density to get a decent mesh to reach your target.

A couple of us NCOs kept in touch via quiet parts of the spectrum on occasion, but it wasn't really needed, as mobile phone coms were not out for long periods, and being out of uniform and without amateur licenses it was slightly naughty. Just a bit of self-directed training.

My only and biggest regret was missing an opportunity to partner with a local mashup organization called the Student Volunteer Army.

The SVA self-org'd and tried jumping in the mix to help(several thousand students). If I could go back and do it over I'd have just jumped in and embedded one of my soldiers(some of which are university students, the rest young working professionals) with each working sub group to liaise and coordinate their desire to help with the needs of the main rescue/recovery effort.

Unfortunately, after getting my ass kicked for "borrowing"(with owner's permission shortly after) two privately owned civilian trucks that we filled, staged, and certified with 28000L of potable water less than 6 hours after the quake I was gun shy to try anything "less than conventional".

I've been in touch with the SVA since to investigate and understand their timeline of events. It turns out they had a very hard time working with the relief effort, they basically were told to go home. Although the organization later received wide recognition for their independent efforts.

Crime was interesting and revealing.

The usual suspects(tweakers/opportunists) tried to take advantage. The justice system, media, and public gave the Police( and Army in support) a lot of latitude and moral support.

We worked in a mix of Police and Army and I even got to drive a cop car with the lights on(but no siren). We caught our share of idiots, but not as many as I thought there might be.

The number of hot young university students, MILFs, and aunties/grandmas that spent a good chunk of their day baking treats and making up big vats of coffee/tea for folks working the rescue/recover was awesome.

Terrible pain in the ass, but in some respects it's renewed my faith in humanity.

A couple out of every hundred were assholes, but a couple more than that stepped up and did something to help.

The rest were in the middle.

I reckon maybe it's a bit like what I read here about UW.....a couple percent on either end of the spectrum is what makes or breaks it.

Key points for me:

*potable water
*community engagement pre-event makes it easy(er)
*potable water
*persistent mesh coms.....a smartphone app, a bunch of hand crank chargers, and a WIFI amplifier antenna TIMES heaps might work
*potable water
*just go with the unconventional solution if my gut tells me it's right and take my lumps later

Just my amateur 0.02c

[mugwump]

Back to team selection...

We were noodling ideas for winnowing the wheat from the chaff, refugee-wise, i.e the original focus of this thread. We made a list of needed skills/trades that won't surprise anyone: medics, vets (both animal and mil), farriers, musicians, blacksmiths, those with food canning experience, etc. A long list. Also, all of the farms around here are of the typical American, super-efficient, energy-intensive type. We are actually going to need strong backs to plant/weed/harvest, milk cows, make hay, etc.

I had an epiphany during the conversation. Why so passive? Why wait for these skills, some rare as hen's teeth, to show up at a checkpoint? Need farriers? Check the professional association lists and scan the farrier websites and blogs for local yokels. Ditto for midwives, bee keepers, potters, dry stone wall makers, steam engine hobbyists, small sawmill operators...you get the drift. We publish our whole lives on the Interwebs, someone should profit from that besides Google and Facebook.

Still haven't worked out how to approach these folks or if we should even try. Maybe just send out someone to recruit/gather in key folk in a 25 or 50-mile radius if the balloon goes up. Talking defense/safety will be anathema to some of these people prior to an event but the issue will be slapping people in the face afterwards. Many of these guys would have tools/gear they would need anyway and we should have functional transport to spare for a while. The "recruiters" would need to be persuasive...but not coercive. Depending on the skill set, some folks might get a golden ticket and could bring in their extended family members vs just their nuclear family. Needs more thought...

Anywho, we've already identified all the amateur radio operators in the area via web search--there were two we didn't know of. All will be offered cheap faraday protection for their spare/obsolescent equipment that they can keep at their sites. It's a start. But we've definitely changed our approach going forward.