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Old 04-02-2020, 18:39   #16
WarriorDiplomat
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I would push back on this one a bit, for the following reasons:

1) In the hardware business, it’s very common to go from paper design to hardware prototype in a single day in China. The speed is strikingly remarkable in an economy optimised for physical goods manufacturing.

2) China has built prefab skyscrapers in remarkably short periods of times(like days, rather than years).

3) After the Battle of the Coral Sea, and in preparation of the decisive Battle of Midway based on Magic intercepts, the USS Yorktown was turned around from a half sunk wreck into a combat capable platform in 3 days.

It wasn’t pretty, but it was just good enough, just in time.

Are we giving too much weight towards premeditation here and not enough weight towards The Will To Win?

The former is less uncomfortable to ponder than the latter isn’t it?
I understand what you are saying but you are giving the Chinese too much credit for effort and not enough for pre planning or flat out deceit

The sheer magnitude of the ability to build a thousand bed hospital with equipment and a staff in 6 days is impossible....unless paint, mortar etc.....dry and cure at a different rate in China not to mention that in order for it to run the grid has to be beefed up to handle the extra draw....the will to win as in the Russians with guns to their backs in WW2 or the will to win as in such a spirited and determined effort they overcome insurmountable odds....the Chinese are tough people but you cannot convince me they created a functioning hospital in 6 days even with slave labor working 24/7....they have an eastern philosophy that is very different to western but Sun Tzu is more along the lines of the truth
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Old 04-02-2020, 20:28   #17
Old Dog New Trick
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It’s just my belief but, for a country (China) that even in times of great economic prosperity builds complete cities sans people, the utilities and the infrastructure to support life and inhabitants because it gives workers a job (stay busy) and don’t revolt. I find it increasingly difficult to believe that the temporary “hospitals” built in Wuhan were nothing more than covered mortuaries where sick people were either brought in or walked in and left in a zippered bag on their way to incinerators which we’ve been told were running at capacity 24/7 at 500/day times seven.

Simple math says at that rate over say 60 days that’s 210,000 out of a population of 11 million. Hardly noticeable and the Chinese communist party will never allow any westerners access to those facilities (which I’ve been told are already being dismantled for “safety reasons”) or the families who lost all their aging and sick parents and grandparents; drain on society anyway not very productive. Some survived, obviously many never got sick. I doubt they knew then or know now what treatments worked or didn’t work. To them it was all just an active laboratory, try this, try that, what did we use the last time?

Was it odd that a vacant multi story hotel being used to isolate people collapsed in the midst of all this? No, that’s just a distraction while they move other pieces on their chessboard.

You want to know why Chinese people, more so than other Asian people, smile at you while talking? It’s because they are lying!

The Ming dynasty (I think I got that one right) didn’t build the Great Wall to keep Mongolian aggressors out, but to keep the peasants happily employed while living a lavish life style back in Beijing with fireworks, theatre and great food.

Nothing has changed much.

Their aircraft carrier is a modern day piece of shit, as is their Air Force and Navy. But hey they have 1.5 billion people and maybe 20% of them are willing to take up arms to defend their way of life, unless the other 80% say don’t, and that’s not likely to happen because 1% of the true believers of the communist party will slaughter entire villages until compliance is regained.

Just an old 1st Group guy reminiscing about that other N. Korean Peninsula problem.
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Old 04-02-2020, 20:40   #18
Penn
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Flagg
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Are we giving too much weight towards premeditation here and not enough weight towards The Will To Win?
Latter/Former, Former/Latter?
Why would one weight one over the other in execution? When it would be reasonable to conclude that premeditation would encompass the will to win.

The Chinese employ a multifaceted approach to their long term goals. nothing is outside their interest. eg (but you know this) from the UN, telecom, 5G, academia, business partnerships (google affording AI population/social controls) I suspect that any chip made in china has built into it, a backdoor for their exploration into whatever system the chip is placed.

btw, the mad scientist post was brilliant.
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Old 04-02-2020, 22:38   #19
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Chinese Navy isn't Jack Shit. Our subs would end them in a NY minute.
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Old 04-02-2020, 23:51   #20
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Flagg
Latter/Former, Former/Latter?
Why would one weight one over the other in execution? When it would be reasonable to conclude that premeditation would encompass the will to win.

The Chinese employ a multifaceted approach to their long term goals. nothing is outside their interest. eg (but you know this) from the UN, telecom, 5G, academia, business partnerships (google affording AI population/social controls) I suspect that any chip made in china has built into it, a backdoor for their exploration into whatever system the chip is placed.

btw, the mad scientist post was brilliant.
Cheers for the last bit!

I see your point that it could be both premeditation as well as “the will to win” concurrently rather than on a proportional continuum.

I agree with much in your post and this thread.

The CCP/PLA are The Main Enemy in my opinion.

Where I might differ a bit is in assessment.

China’s Three Warfares doctrine and strategy is unrestricted political warfare.

My concerns consist of:

whether or not western society has the will to win,

what China’s real strengths and vulnerabilities are,

and how we can reduce a much bigger/badder counterfeit Chinese Nazi threat
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Old 04-03-2020, 00:01   #21
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Chinese Navy isn't Jack Shit. Our subs would end them in a NY minute.
Largely true, I reckon.

Launching and recovering fighter planes in low volume and optimal conditions is one thing.

Launching and recovering in terrible weather, combat conditions, and high volume is entirely another.

That takes decades.

What doesn’t take decades anymore is disruptive capability to negate trillion dollar sunk costs(aircraft carrier fleet global capability).

Maybe China’s DF-21D is a lousy Chinese bottle rocket.

Maybe it’s a carrier killer.

Maybe the US can easily defeat it.

But the days of having to spend trillions in order to defeat trillions in legacy capability are over.
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Old 04-03-2020, 08:49   #22
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But the days of having to spend trillions in order to defeat trillions in legacy capability are over.
How much is that virus in the bottle?
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Old 04-03-2020, 15:33   #23
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Research Gate - Zero Hedge?

The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus
Botao Xiao1,2* and Lei Xiao3
1 Joint International Research Laboratory of Synthetic Biology and Medicine, School of Biology and Biological Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
2 School of Physics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
3 Tian You Hospital, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430064, China
Corresponding author: xiaob@scut.edu.cn
Tel / Fax: 86-20-3938-0631

The 2019-nCoV coronavirus has caused an epidemic of 28,060 laboratory-confirmed infections in human including 564 deaths in China by February 6, 2020. Two descriptions of the virus published on Nature this week indicated that the genome sequences from patients were 96% or 89% identical to the Bat CoV ZC45 coronavirus originally found in Rhinolophus affinis 1,2. It was critical to study where the pathogen came from and how it passed onto human.

An article published on The Lancet reported that 41 people in Wuhan were found to have the acute respiratory syndrome and 27 of them had contact with Huanan Seafood Market 3. The 2019-nCoV was found in 33 out of 585 samples collected in the market after the outbreak. The market was suspected to be the origin of the epidemic, and was shut down according to the rule of quarantine the source during an epidemic.

The bats carrying CoV ZC45 were originally found in Yunnan or Zhejiang province, both of which were more than 900 kilometers away from the seafood market. Bats were normally found to live in caves and trees. But the seafood market is in a densely-populated district of Wuhan, a metropolitan of ~15 million people. The probability was very low for the bats to fly to the market. According to municipal reports and the testimonies of 31 residents and 28 visitors, the bat was never a food source in the city, and no bat was traded in the market. There was possible natural recombination or intermediate host of the coronavirus, yet little proof has been reported.

Was there any other possible pathway? We screened the area around the seafood market and identified two laboratories conducting research on bat coronavirus. Within ~280 meters from the market, there was the Wuhan Center for Disease Control & Prevention (WHCDC) (Figure 1, from Baidu and Google maps).

WHCDC hosted animals in laboratories for research purpose, one of which was specialized in pathogens collection and identification 4- 6.

In one of their studies, 155 bats including Rhinolophus affinis were captured in Hubei province, and other 450 bats were captured in Zhejiang province
4. The expert in collection was noted in the Author Contributions (JHT). Moreover, he was broadcasted for collecting viruses on nation-wide newspapers and websites in 2017 and 2019 7,8.

He described that he was once attacked by bats and the blood of a bat shot on his skin. He knew the extreme danger of the infection so he quarantined himself for 14 days 7. In another accident, he quarantined himself again because bats peed on him. He was once thrilled for capturing a bat carrying a live tick.

8.Surgery was performed on the caged animals and the tissue samples were collected for DNA and RNA extraction and sequencing 4, 5.

The tissue samples and contaminated trashes were source of pathogens. They were only ~280 meters from the seafood market. The WHCDC was also adjacent to the Union Hospital (Figure 1, bottom) where the first group of doctors were infected during this epidemic. It is plausible that the virus leaked around and some of them contaminated the initial patients in this epidemic, though solid proofs are needed in future study.

The second laboratory was ~12 kilometers from the seafood market and belonged to Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences 1, 9, 10. This laboratory reported that the Chinese horseshoe bats were natural reservoirs for the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) which caused the 2002-3 pandemic 9.

The principle investigator participated in a project which generated a chimeric virus using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system, and reported the potential for human emergence

10. A direct speculation was that SARS-CoV or its derivative might leak from the laboratory.

In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan. Safety level may need to be reinforced in high risk biohazardous laboratories. Regulations may be taken to relocate these laboratories far away from city center and other densely populated places.

Acknowledgements
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (11772133, 11372116).
Declaration of interests
All authors declare no competing interests.
References
1. Zhou P, Yang X-L, Wang X-G, et al. A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature 2020. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2012-7.
2. Wu F, Zhao S, Yu B, et al. A new coronavirus associated with human respiratory disease in China. Nature 2020. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2008-3.
3. Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, et al. Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. The Lancet 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140- 6736(20)30183-5.
4. Guo WP, Lin XD, Wang W, et al. Phylogeny and origins of hantaviruses harbored by bats, insectivores, and rodents. PLoS pathogens 2013; 9(2): e1003159.
5. Lu M, Tian JH, Yu B, Guo WP, Holmes EC, Zhang YZ. Extensive diversity of rickettsiales bacteria in ticks from Wuhan, China. Ticks and tick-borne diseases 2017; 8(4): 574-80.
6. Shi M, Lin XD, Chen X, et al. The evolutionary history of vertebrate RNA viruses. Nature 2018; 556(7700): 197-202.
7. Tao P. Expert in Wuhan collected ten thousands animals: capture bats in mountain at night. Changjiang Times 2017.
8. Li QX, Zhanyao. Playing with elephant dung, fishing for sea bottom mud: the work that will change China's future. thepaper 2019.
9. Ge XY, Li JL, Yang XL, et al. Isolation and characterization of a bat SARS-like coronavirus that uses the ACE2 receptor. Nature 2013; 503(7477): 535-8.
10. Menachery VD, Yount BL, Jr., Debbink K, et al. A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence. Nature medicine 2015; 21(12): 1508-13.
The original pre-print is below (link):
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EDIT TO ADD: Whole Post was Copy and Paste

Last edited by Penn; 04-03-2020 at 17:36.
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Old 04-03-2020, 17:15   #24
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Article reference
Good find. I wonder if it's authors will be imprisoned by the Chinese government for this publication.
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Old 04-03-2020, 18:47   #25
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PedOncoDoc.
Most certain they will never be heard of again.

Flagg
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China’s Three Warfares doctrine and strategy is unrestricted political warfare.

My concerns consist of:

whether or not western society has the will to win,

what China’s real strengths and vulnerabilities are,

and how we can reduce a much bigger/badder counterfeit Chinese Nazi threat
The Three warfare doctrine: the totality of commitment to cause.
Competition: the will to win
Confrontation and containment
My thinking is: You need a research assistant.
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Old 04-03-2020, 18:54   #26
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Flagg


How much is that virus in the bottle?
That’s the trillion dollar question!

My gut tells me this isn’t a result of human bioweapon engineering.

Are the Chinese in a position to comprehensively counter US power projection?

Not at the global level, but increasingly at their near-shore and regional level.

Would it make sense for China to invest in asymmetric capabilities?

Absolutely!

Why invest a trillion and decades to counter US carrier battle fleets?

They can be disrupted and denied far more cheaply(proportionally), if still not cheap.

I think for me to be convinced that this is an integrated Chinese plan with a bio weapons component I’d need to see what I am unable to see.

Which is a really comprehensive and accurate understanding of Chinese systemic strengths and vulnerabilities.

There’s just so much “noise”(complexity?) and conflicting information, including the stuff that is simply/clearly accurate.

I don’t know much about bioweapons, but as I understand it, there’s a LOT of unpredictability with applying them.

They are weapons, but ones that are very hard to aim, and harder to predict effects.
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Old 04-03-2020, 19:12   #27
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Interesting read
https://warontherocks.com/2018/01/ch...s-perspective/

Bioweapons-Natick labs 1970. On rtn from RVN, stationed at Natick Labs, a NV agent was test on a high school football field. My job: recording wind direction and speed.
With that in mind, it is so hard to imagine a similar test conducted by equally clueless clogs following directions/orders?

The more research about China that expresses its intention of hegemony, the more apt I am to consider it's willfulness in the release of the virus.

Last edited by Penn; 04-03-2020 at 19:14.
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Old 04-03-2020, 19:22   #28
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I’m not going to post the article it’s easy to find but rightfully so the Captain of the USS Theodore Roosevelt was relieved of command yesterday. Democrats are livid but they have no basis for their opinion.

The Captain violated principal rule number ONE never go public with a military weakness that should have remained classified.

The military was aware of the problem and working the problem and the ship was already docked in Guam. As I said the Captain was rightfully relieved of command and the Democrats can pound sand.
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Old 04-03-2020, 21:18   #29
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PedOncoDoc.
Most certain they will never be heard of again.

Flagg


The Three warfare doctrine: the totality of commitment to cause.
Competition: the will to win
Confrontation and containment
My thinking is: You need a research assistant.
I’m a big fan of the Reagan administration’s foreign policy.

Particularly the actions around crippling Soviet export earnings and imploding the Warsaw Pact & Soviet Union thru non kinetic support of the indigenous Solidarity movement in Poland.

But how do we counter China?

Low energy prices that help us, actually help China more.

And they have a greater willingness to intimidate or slaughter their way to retention of power as witnessed with the Uyghur peoples.

Perhaps we turn Hong Kong into a proxy for West Berlin.

But both the Uyghur and Hong Kong problems for China have evaporated in terms of global mindshare.
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Old 04-03-2020, 21:33   #30
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Interesting read
https://warontherocks.com/2018/01/ch...s-perspective/

Bioweapons-Natick labs 1970. On rtn from RVN, stationed at Natick Labs, a NV agent was test on a high school football field. My job: recording wind direction and speed.
With that in mind, it is so hard to imagine a similar test conducted by equally clueless clogs following directions/orders?

The more research about China that expresses its intention of hegemony, the more apt I am to consider it's willfulness in the release of the virus.
That’s a solid article from a pretty good resource.

I can definitely see China conducting tests with proxy agents, much as the US did way back in the day.

I recall reading about a large-scale one on the US East Coast in the 50’s/60’s using a live proxy agent?

So I don’t think it is outside the realm of possibility that China would do the same.

Not at all.

But is this it?

US SMEs seem to be consistent in their believe that the DNA of this virus makes it highly unlikely it is a bio weapon.
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