08-30-2009, 19:33
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#16
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Area Commander
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: San Antonio, Texas
Posts: 2,760
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard
my predictions since 1990 have been that it will take three generations and a long-term, generally stable social-economic environment to do so.
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What if the period between now and 2050 (three generations, assuming 20 years per generation) is marked by strongly adverse economic conditions?
I do not ask this lightly. The western world has enjoyed increasing affluence and abundance, along with cheap and available food for the past 60 or so years. These conditions seem to have encouraged the growth of the present societies. But should that change, I cannot help suspecting that real political and social anger will manifest itself.
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nmap is offline
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08-31-2009, 07:09
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#17
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: NorCal
Posts: 15,370
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Quote:
What if the period between now and 2050 (three generations, assuming 20 years per generation) is marked by strongly adverse economic conditions?
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Western Germany is one thing, Eastern Germany is another, the EU and NATO are yet another, and Eastern Europe/South Asia adds yet other complex dimensions to it all...plus many TBA issues...so ask me that again in 2051 and I'll probably be able to give you a reasonably accurate answer.
Richard's $.02
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“Sometimes the Bible in the hand of one man is worse than a whisky bottle in the hand of (another)… There are just some kind of men who – who’re so busy worrying about the next world they’ve never learned to live in this one, and you can look down the street and see the results.” - To Kill A Mockingbird (Atticus Finch)
“Almost any sect, cult, or religion will legislate its creed into law if it acquires the political power to do so.” - Robert Heinlein
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Richard is offline
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08-31-2009, 14:29
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#18
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Area Commander
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: San Antonio, Texas
Posts: 2,760
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard
Western Germany is one thing, Eastern Germany is another, the EU and NATO are yet another, and Eastern Europe/South Asia adds yet other complex dimensions to it all...plus many TBA issues...so ask me that again in 2051 and I'll probably be able to give you a reasonably accurate answer.
Richard's $.02
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Given lifestyle and genetics, the question will most likely be posed by my ghost...
So just remember, you invited me to haunt you.
However, if you would prefer to speculate about what might develop, I promise not to send any messages from the beyond.
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Carpe diem quam minimum credula postero
Acronym Key:
MOO: My Opinion Only
YMMV: Your Mileage May Vary
ETF: Exchange Traded Fund
Oil Chart
30 year Treasury Bond
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nmap is offline
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08-31-2009, 14:42
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#19
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Quiet Professional (RIP)
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Carriere,Ms.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard
Western Germany is one thing, Eastern Germany is another, the EU and NATO are yet another, and Eastern Europe/South Asia adds yet other complex dimensions to it all...plus many TBA issues...so ask me that again in 2051 and I'll probably be able to give you a reasonably accurate answer.
Richard's $.02
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Ask you again in 2051 !!!! You have got to be sh*ting me Richard !!!
Big Teddy
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I believe that SF is a 'calling' - not too different from the calling missionaries I know received. I knew instantly that it was for me, and that I would do all I could to achieve it. Most others I know in SF experienced something similar. If, as you say, you HAVE searched and read, and you do not KNOW if this is the path for you --- it is not....
Zonie Diver
SF is a calling and it requires commitment and dedication that the uninitiated will never understand......
Jack Moroney
SFA M-2527, Chapter XXXVII
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greenberetTFS is offline
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08-31-2009, 14:48
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#20
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BANNED USER
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 3,751
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greenberetTFS
Ask you again in 2051 !!!! You have got to be sh*ting me Richard !!! Big Teddy
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Besides it's all going to hell on Dec 23, 2012! Check out the trailer for the coming movie, 2012. Looks like all the demo guys in the world let their imaginations run wild!
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Dozer523 is offline
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08-31-2009, 19:08
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#21
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Area Commander
Join Date: Jun 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dozer523
Besides it's all going to hell on Dec 23, 2012!
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Tut, tut. That's way too optimistic!
Given how far out of line wages are with unit labor costs and the reality of deflation in Spain, we see Spain's unemployment level heading toward 25%. With a 25% unemployment rate and a debt deflationary dynamic, how exactly do the banks think they'll be paid back? Who will earn the money to pay the mortgage payments, and how will housing be affordable when wages have been deflated? Assuming the worst has passed in Spain does not pass the common sense test.
Brief excerpt from a discussion of Spain, and the likely economic effects of substantial (and unpayable?) levels of debt. LINK HERE
One outcome I expect is for countries to migrate toward a mercantilist approach - or, if you prefer, a protectionist stance - in Europe and elsewhere. But that has implications for the global economy, as well as for China, India, and so forth.
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Carpe diem quam minimum credula postero
Acronym Key:
MOO: My Opinion Only
YMMV: Your Mileage May Vary
ETF: Exchange Traded Fund
Oil Chart
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09-18-2009, 08:38
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#22
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: NorCal
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Germany's Political Plague
http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fo...cke-46414.html
And so it goes...
Richard's $.02
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“Sometimes the Bible in the hand of one man is worse than a whisky bottle in the hand of (another)… There are just some kind of men who – who’re so busy worrying about the next world they’ve never learned to live in this one, and you can look down the street and see the results.” - To Kill A Mockingbird (Atticus Finch)
“Almost any sect, cult, or religion will legislate its creed into law if it acquires the political power to do so.” - Robert Heinlein
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09-18-2009, 08:49
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#23
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Area Commander
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Harmony Church
Posts: 2,633
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NPD
Interesting post Richard,
I was in Dresden just last week and took a good look at some NPD posters and literature.
They got it out for the Muslims. There's going to be some bad blood over there in the near future.
Last edited by mojaveman; 09-18-2009 at 08:52.
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mojaveman is offline
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09-18-2009, 09:08
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#24
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: NorCal
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IMO the Slavs and other Ausländer will only fare marginally better than the Muslims - but we've heard it all before...as have they.
Here's the NPDs web-site if anyone wants to check it out.
http://www.npd.de/
And so it goes...
Richard's $.02
__________________
“Sometimes the Bible in the hand of one man is worse than a whisky bottle in the hand of (another)… There are just some kind of men who – who’re so busy worrying about the next world they’ve never learned to live in this one, and you can look down the street and see the results.” - To Kill A Mockingbird (Atticus Finch)
“Almost any sect, cult, or religion will legislate its creed into law if it acquires the political power to do so.” - Robert Heinlein
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Richard is offline
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