Economic impact of COVID-19

[JJ_BPK]

Originally Posted by PSM

It's already in the works:

https://twitter.com/USArmy/status/1241440439380488194

Thanks

[frostfire]

Originally Posted by Trapper John

My advisor contacts at JP Morgan

This free fall market has turned me into a trader!
Lost 1/3 too. So I now nibble and let go with the swing.
JP Morgan was really awful when I was still paying my house mortgage. So I'm glad I made money trading in and out of JPM!

Did the same with UAL, DIS, and DAL

REIT has fallen 80%+, so if you see people flocking movie theatre, parks, and malls again in 6+ months, then that's the place to park your money!

[mugwump]

I’m up, big time. Sold all equities, except Abbott/Abbvie for sentimental reasons, days before the peak, shorted the S&P, now I’m 70% out again. I expect at least one more big leg down, where I’ll cover the balance. Then I’ll go 50% back in on a list I’ve got. That's when I’ll lose my gains.

There’ll be multiple peaks for this disease with geographic locales out of synchrony. The true peak in each area will be hard to determine with several 'false dawns.' See, for example, Italy, with two days of flattening giving hope for a peak and then yesterday the deaths roar back. Wham.

The influenza 'peak week' gets bet on by ICU staff and epidemiologist just like March Madness used to be. Even with all our experience with the flu, it's always a backwards looking determination.

New York is on track for a higher and earlier peak than initially forecast. Bad juju, even with Cuomo's brilliant reaction. Because people who live near oceans are the only ones who really matter to the press, the volume of screeching from cable news will be deafening when we near peak deaths. That’s when I’ll probably cover my last position. If the markets are open.

There should be national triage guidelines. I’m not saying to stop efforts to increase beds and vents, just recognize in many places the HC system will be badly overwhelmed. Italy (>65 years) and now Spain (>60 years) are taking older patients off of vents and replacing them with younger patients. France is next.

Face facts and establish a national policy.

And if we can’t get PPE to HCWers, shut it down. No more covid admits. Stay home and die in place, even if you’re a Kardashian or play basketball. They’ll scuttle around with their money and their privilege looking for a bed, but that’s unavoidable. Hopefully they’ll be turned away.

What's the point in gutting the HC system and losing costly medical assets?

I’m not naive, I expect none of this to come about.

[Pete]

Originally Posted by mugwump

.... No more covid admits. Stay home and die in place, even if you’re a Kardashian or play basketball. They’ll scuttle around with their money and their privilege looking for a bed, but that’s unavoidable. Hopefully they’ll be turned away. ...

I'm sure all the "right" people already have their prescription for and have picked up their malaria drug of choice.

Was walking through the living room a couple of nights ago and the wife had ET on. Some actor was saying he was almost dead and started taking the drug and it was great - he was cured. I was counting back on my fingers and he must have been taking it about 4 days before Trump talked about it.

So it's been used a lot more than it's been talked about.

[Old Dog New Trick]

Mugwump, great to see you posting...you must have found some time. Hope you are well and hanging in there.

I disagree that there should be a ‘National triage,’ guidance maybe from one of the letter agencies CDC/NAIH/HHS but, I think triage should be at the lowest local level that fits within what the local level can sustain. Each place will have different needs and those needs will change over time.

The National level should be fully involved in supporting the state and local governments. When peaks and waves blow through one area the national level should be there to reposition, clean, and reissue resources that are needed elsewhere.

No one I ever knew wants the government to come in and tell you what to do. It causes chaos and duplication.

ETA: It’s going to be important to get ahead of the next local outbreak. If that’s random testing or early recognition and testing the government should remain laser focused to support the local medical community to keep it contained and not travel again. Especially as mass transit gets up and running again.

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by Old Dog New Trick

No one I ever knew wants the government to come in and tell you what to do. It causes chaos and duplication.

I’m sure you’re right. I have zero experience or practical knowledge. But watching the Chinese/Italian/Spanish docs on video...they’re crushed flat and need some emotional backstopping or there are going to be a lot of drink/drug/suicides after this is all over. They shouldn’t have to pick winners and losers.

Yeah I’m pretty much done with my little role in all of this, at least for now. You know those girls wearing hoodies on the sidelines at college football games? The ones who squirt Gatorade in the mouths of the players who don’t have time to remove their helmets? I’m that girl lol. Minor role in the grand scheme of things.

Best of luck to you and yours, Dog.

[Ret10Echo]

Originally Posted by Old Dog New Trick

I disagree that there should be a ‘National triage,’ guidance maybe from one of the letter agencies CDC/NAIH/HHS but, I think triage should be at the lowest local level that fits within what the local level can sustain. Each place will have different needs and those needs will change over time.

The National level should be fully involved in supporting the state and local governments. When peaks and waves blow through one area the national level should be there to reposition, clean, and reissue resources that are needed elsewhere.

No one I ever knew wants the government to come in and tell you what to do. It causes chaos and duplication.

There have been requests by states for just such direction and risk-transfer. I believe that the Feds are resisting for very much the same reason. There are going to be a myriad of Congressional Investigations after all this is said and done where the 'do-nothings" will call into question the actions of those that took charge and met the threat.

Brace for impact.

[Old Dog New Trick]

Originally Posted by Ret10Echo

There have been requests by states for just such direction and risk-transfer. I believe that the Feds are resisting for very much the same reason. There are going to be a myriad of Congressional Investigations after all this is said and done where the 'do-nothings" will call into question the actions of those that took charge and met the threat.

Brace for impact.

Yep!

It’s always the fifth wave now. Isn’t it? (The blame someone else wave not find lessons learned and adopt new SOPs) I don’t know how many times I’ve heard the words “911 Commission like level investigation” and we haven’t even gotten through the first month.

[Old Dog New Trick]

Does anyone who’s watched Gov Cuomo, give his press briefing update today find it strange that he’s complaining about not having enough (anything) while sitting in front of stacks and stacks of medical supplies?

It would be better if in the time he started the press briefing and when he finished the press briefing all those items were wheeled or carried off to delivery vehicles going out to the facilities that need them.

I don’t know, seemed like a bad backdrop for saying you don’t have these things.

[5thgrp"C"]

Originally Posted by Old Dog New Trick

Does anyone who’s watched Gov Cuomo, give his press briefing update today find it strange that he’s complaining about not having enough (anything) while sitting in front of stacks and stacks of medical supplies?

It would be better if in the time he started the press briefing and when he finished the press briefing all those items were wheeled or carried off to delivery vehicles going out to the facilities that need them.

I don’t know, seemed like a bad backdrop for saying you don’t have these things.

I think he let the media's coverage of him to get to his head. He's had a couple briefings where he blames his inability on the feds.

[cat in the hat]

Originally Posted by 5thgrp"C"

I think he let the media's coverage of him to get to his head. He's had a couple briefings where he blames his inability on the feds.

I find it telling that he claims to need 30k respirators like nobody else does or will.
He is the government equivalent of a guy with a shopping cart full of toilet paper claiming that he's the only one about to have diarrhea.

[Paslode]

Originally Posted by Old Dog New Trick

Does anyone who’s watched Gov Cuomo, give his press briefing update today find it strange that he’s complaining about not having enough (anything) while sitting in front of stacks and stacks of medical supplies?

It would be better if in the time he started the press briefing and when he finished the press briefing all those items were wheeled or carried off to delivery vehicles going out to the facilities that need them.

I don’t know, seemed like a bad backdrop for saying you don’t have these things.

Considering that Gov Cuomo was on Hannity Radio last Thursday or Friday praising President Trump, Yes I am surprised. But since he is a politician I am not really surprised.

[Ret10Echo]

Originally Posted by Old Dog New Trick

Does anyone who’s watched Gov Cuomo, give his press briefing update today find it strange that he’s complaining about not having enough (anything) while sitting in front of stacks and stacks of medical supplies?

It would be better if in the time he started the press briefing and when he finished the press briefing all those items were wheeled or carried off to delivery vehicles going out to the facilities that need them.

I don’t know, seemed like a bad backdrop for saying you don’t have these things.

States (and levels below) are fighting each other for limited supplies.

NYC is a shitshow folks... They've got issues.

[Trapper John]

Originally Posted by cat in the hat

I find it telling that he claims to need 30k respirators like nobody else does or will.
He is the government equivalent of a guy with a shopping cart full of toilet paper claiming that he's the only one about to have diarrhea.

You hit the nail on the head! Nobody needs 30k respirators! Not even remotely possible. Hyperbole reigns!

[Hand]

Originally Posted by Old Dog New Trick

Does anyone who’s watched Gov Cuomo, give his press briefing update today find it strange that he’s complaining about not having enough (anything) while sitting in front of stacks and stacks of medical supplies?

It would be better if in the time he started the press briefing and when he finished the press briefing all those items were wheeled or carried off to delivery vehicles going out to the facilities that need them.

I don’t know, seemed like a bad backdrop for saying you don’t have these things.

Remember that Puerto Rico mayor complaining about not getting any help from the gov after Hurricane Maria?



I wonder what message Cuomo and whoever that lady was were trying to project?