Protester(?) throws 'Molotov cocktail' #HongKong

[JJ_BPK]

Picture of a "protester" with riot gear and weapon.

Hong Kong and mainland China probably have the most restrictive weapons laws in the World.

I think it is safe to say the Chinese government is actively participating in the riots.

If this guy has a weapon,, he assuredly has permission to use it

[35NCO]

I assess that it's a mall ninja airsofter.

The clash of knock off gear makes me believe that. Also the homebrew armor.

Pretty brave for them to do that...but it's a different culture. Going to war with what they have includes their airsoft gear because it's all they have.

[The Reaper]

Originally Posted by 35NCO

I assess that it's a mall ninja airsofter.

The clash of knock off gear makes me believe that. Also the homebrew armor.

Pretty brave for them to do that...but it's a different culture. Going to war with what they have includes their airsoft gear because it's all they have.

I concur.

TR

[JJ_BPK]

Tried to find a source for the pic, My google foo took me to a twitter account. I don't twit, so I consider it a F6 source of garbage, but there are useful idiots

The general consensus is AirSoft, but some have posted what they identify as HK Police arrests wearing nearly identical outfits.

Apparently, the protesters AND HKPD use the same Army/Navy Surplus store??


twitter link: Free Hon Kong or Freedom HK

[Divemaster]

Last weekend undercover HK cops (dressed like protesters) fired two warning shots near Victoria Park in Causeway Bay when they were about to get their asses handed to them by real protesters who figured out who they were. Those were the 2nd & 3rd live rounds fired since this whole thing kicked off in June. So, the undercover cops are armed and armed with semiautomatic handguns. The press found the ejected casings and photographed them. Consider that when analyzing those photos.

[Flagg]

I assume Hong Kongers protesting in recent months have a crystal clear understanding of how/why violence and property damage are absolutely counterproductive to their movement at this stage.

An article was written by a US Army SF officer and published recently at SWJ that relates: https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/ar...rfare-doctrine

I don’t want to smash square Hong Kong pegs into round Polish Solidarity holes, but the entirely non kinetic and offset support for Solidarity and its success is certainly historical inspiration if not an exact roadmap for Hong Kong.

Is Hong Kong a very rough Asian analog to West Berlin?

Not in terms of economic divide between PRC and HK, but the freedom divide.

However, it also would appear the economic divide between haves and have nots is a considerable issue.

I’m of the belief that PRC/PLA’s greatest threat is from its own people.

The face of techno authoritarianism in China is truly frightening and I suspect it is designed to provide PRC/PLA a shock absorber if they fail to fulfill their contract with the Chinese people of continuously providing a better quality of life and standard of living for Chinese people in exchange for absolute power.

Communist China has not had a recession since Deng ‘s reforms sparked China’s command driven mercantilist economic boom started nearly 40 years ago.

A Chinese recession is inevitable, despite their numerous tools and dry powder to stall it.

This Hong Kong protest movement, with the highest proportional protest participation is a funny thing.

PRC/PLA could decisively crush it(although it would suck up an incredible amount of PLA resources to do so, and destroy PRC/PLA international reputation and economic expansionist plans).

They can, but they can’t.

Sorry for the long post, but PRC discrediting protesters in the eyes of China and the world as bandits / criminals / terrorists would be key terrain for this information war.

[Flagg]

This is quite interesting:

https://apnews.com/3e1249a0f7724747a8d3cea27728811c

Hong Kong protestors flying the Stars & Stripes of the USA 🇺🇸

Flattering, but seems potentially quite counterproductive.

Infiltrators/provocateurs possibly waving the flag?

Or protestors too naive/aggressive in trying to maintain momentum?

Solidarity/US were careful not to be seen as a puppet/proxy to mitigate for SB/KGB attempts to portray them as such.

US flags waving in Hong Kong will not play well in Mainland China 🇨🇳

[Divemaster]

The US flags carried by the protesters were for the march to the US consulate; the only peaceful protest event of the day. Tens of thousands attended. The protesters are appealing to the the US Congress to pass legislation (Hong Kong Human Rights Act) that, roughly speaking, will punish Hong Kong and China for adversely impacting "basic freedoms" Hong Kongers currently experience. In Macau, another Special Administrative Region (SAR), any protests are quickly put down.

The violence and property destruction has targeted the LegCo Building, police, and the MTR. Private businesses have been left alone. However, the retail, hospitality, and travel industries have taken some big hits over the past 14 weeks.

None of the protesters five demands are economic.

1. Complete withdrawal of the extradition bill.
2. Reverse the riot declaration of the protests, specifically the one on 12 June.
3. Unconditional release of all arrested protesters.
4. Independent inquiry into violence by the police against protesters.
5. Universal suffrage.

That Carrie Lam gave in on the first demand finally is kind of a joke as had she done so months ago, prior to the other four demands being made, this could have been defused.

Keep your eyes on events between now and 01 October, the 70th anniversary of the PRC's founding. Many think that Beijing won't tolerate unrest in the streets on such a big day for the CPC. Xi is already under pressure internally for not taking decisive action thus far.

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by Divemaster

The US flags carried by the protesters were for the march to the US consulate; the only peaceful protest event of the day. Tens of thousands attended. The protesters are appealing to the the US Congress to pass legislation (Hong Kong Human Rights Act) that, roughly speaking, will punish Hong Kong and China for adversely impacting "basic freedoms" Hong Kongers currently experience. In Macau, another Special Administrative Region (SAR), any protests are quickly put down.

The violence and property destruction has targeted the LegCo Building, police, and the MTR. Private businesses have been left alone. However, the retail, hospitality, and travel industries have taken some big hits over the past 14 weeks.

None of the protesters five demands are economic.

1. Complete withdrawal of the extradition bill.
2. Reverse the riot declaration of the protests, specifically the one on 12 June.
3. Unconditional release of all arrested protesters.
4. Independent inquiry into violence by the police against protesters.
5. Universal suffrage.

That Carrie Lam gave in on the first demand finally is kind of a joke as had she done so months ago, prior to the other four demands being made, this could have been defused.

Keep your eyes on events between now and 01 October, the 70th anniversary of the PRC's founding. Many think that Beijing won't tolerate unrest in the streets on such a big day for the CPC. Xi is already under pressure internally for not taking decisive action thus far.

What are your thoughts with how this plays out?

I’m hopeful there is a competent resourced small team offering the HK protest movement effective arms length and non attritbutable support.

I’ve been following Joshua Wong for a few years now.

He seems like a really sharp and passionate young man with the highest percentage of sympathetic and active peers in known protest history.

I’m thinking the economic depth and the techno-authoritarian breadth of China means this protest movement is far more likely to end like Hungary in 56 or Czechoslovakia in 68 than Poland or the Baltics in 89.

But I’m also aware that Soviet Cold War comparison to current Chinese optionality is oversimplistic and risky.

Perhaps more considered and cautious fascism would be a better comparison. A less bombastic, more conservative, kinder/gentler Hitler/Mussolini more willing to listen to professional advice.

I’d really like to find a solid long term China hand source to read.

Someone with 30+ years worth of hands on observation with perspective on 1989 Tiananmen, the tectonic change since, and what’s happening now.

My classmates from Mainland China a few years back were guarded but opened up a little bit over time. I was left with the distinct sense that China is a cowboy culture economically, not too unlike how the US economic engine really kicked into high gear a hundred years ago.

But I also got the sense that the Chinese government’s power and control is based entirely on its ability to continue delivering the Chinese version of the American Dream.

It sounded like failure of China’s Communist Party to continuously deliver on that economic dream is a potentially critical vulnerability.

[Ret10Echo]

Hong Kong is about to get "progressived" into the mainland.

Unfortunate turn....It'll be ugly

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