Economic impact of COVID-19

[tonyz]

Extremely unusual and dynamic situation.

Food (grocery not restaurant) cleaning products, paper products, PPE sellers, ammunition sellers — sales numbers must be off the charts for the entire month of March, at least.

[Surf n Turf]

What was it that Baron Rothschild is credited with saying ---- Buy when there is blood in the streets…..even if it is your blood.

SnT

[PSM]

Guess who is (or will be) buying . . . the Chinese.

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by frostfire

Thanks to Saudi and Ruskie, Xom rds bp oxy have tanked to lowest since the 90’s!!!
I thought putting buy trigger at ‘08 level was a smart move...

Even pharmacy (w drug shortage) got hammered. The market has gone total irrational

W 10 ye horizon, REIT seems solid

Be careful with OXY, there’s a good chance they may be a target of bottom feeders like Chevron after the bad indigestion they are having from the Anadarko acquisition.

Things have certainly started to get nutty.

I reckon we start to see real cash on corporate balance sheets deployed by Xmas.

[JJ_BPK]

Originally Posted by PSM

Guess who is (or will be) buying . . . the Chinese.

I posted this article a couple of days ago on FB as an information point. It's dated 2014 and discusses the Chinese and their thirst for Italian investments. I offered it as a possible reason for the extremely hight Italian virus numbers.

They are sitting on Bazillions from their World manufacturing dominance. You gots to do something with all that cash..

My concern is that swamp critters the World over, will seak political advantage by driving their countries into some stupid draconian isolationist efforts, to retaliate against the Chinese.

LA CINA È VICINA
China is buying up Italy, one company at a time
October 13, 2014

https://qz.com/280247/china-is-buyin...any-at-a-time/

This another article that popped today..

Chinese Firms Now Hold Stakes In Over A Dozen European Ports

October 9, 2018, 4:57 AM ET
Heard on Morning Edition


https://www.npr.org/2018/10/09/64258...european-ports

[JJ_BPK]

More info on the Italian crisis..
Dated Nov 2019 < pre-virus announcement..

The Chinese ‘guardians‘ of Italy’s coffee culture

“Chinese bars are everywhere, and the cappuccino is in a state of shock.”

So go the translated lyrics of a slightly xenophobic 2013 Italian pop song by the Milanese duo “Il Genio.” It is about Chinese migrants taking over neighborhood cafes in northern and central Italy.

Six years later and, according to an article in the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera earlier this month, 11.5% of bars in Milan are run by first- and second-generation migrants from China.

Italy has one of the highest Chinese populations in Europe, with more than 300,000 officially registered and many more living there illegally.
Around 90% of them come from China’s Zhejiang province.

https://www.inkstonenews.com/society...rticle/3039584

[Trapper John]

So, I have been thinking about this Coronavirus thing and that can be a little scary if not outright dangerous! But, here are my thoughts:

1. This is a war and it was initiated by China!
2. As a war, I subscribe to the philosophy of Gen. George Patton, i.e. a simple strategy executed with violence and precision is far better to bring an end to the conflict than a complex strategy
3. Therefore, shut-down the U.S. and if necessary invoke Marshal Law.
4. This is necessary to flatten the infection curve. If we don't our healthcare system will collapse!
5. Ramp up testing to ID positives to be quarantined
6. Accelerate approval of hydroxychloroquine and vaccine and other therapeutics development.
7. Pump massive $s into the economy focused on individuals, small businesses, and critical industries
8. Recover, adjust, and develop economic, fiscal, and monetary policies to correct from 2nd and 3rd order effects from#7
9. Look for unanticipated opportunities i.e. quashing Iran & Russia
10. Take back supply chains, dictate and control trade deals
11. Be prepared to use military force to effect #s 9 &10 This is likely to be required and frankly, I view this as an opportunity to put these bad actors in a box once and for all.
12. Develop a simple long-term plan for managing the new world order, i.e play well with others or sit quietly in the corner until you can.

[Old Dog New Trick]

^^^^looks like a good starting point^^^^

Need to re-elect DJT for starters and flush the socialist swamp creatures out of DC.

[Penn]

TJ, Your position assumes you have time, and are prepared to fight a war of attrition, you lose.

You lose, not just because all your med capability has been outsourced, but because the Chinese may possess a vaccine. They own the pathogen, so it should not be discounted. Also, you’ll deal with multi waves of infection, with an ever-mutating pathogen.

On the off chance that the take over is passively aggressive, you are tossed a carrot to keep your energy up to bury the dead.

But, the Chinese, goal is to take possession without conflict. Warfare is costly. Imo, only one logical option exists, which you must assume the Chinese have considered, and it changes everything. You must be willing to engage the nuclear option and mean it. After all, we are dead any way the virus will gut us. Therefore, MAD is the only out.

We are at war in the 21st century, with all its political correctness.

[Trapper John]

Originally Posted by Penn

TJ, Your position assumes you have time, and are prepared to fight a war of attrition, you lose.

You lose, not just because all your med capability has been outsourced, but because the Chinese may possess a vaccine. They own the pathogen, so it should not be discounted. Also, you’ll deal with multi waves of infection, with an ever-mutating pathogen.

On the off chance that the take over is passively aggressive, you are tossed a carrot to keep your energy up to bury the dead.

But, the Chinese, goal is to take possession without conflict. Warfare is costly. Imo, only one logical option exists, which you must assume the Chinese have considered, and it changes everything. You must be willing to engage the nuclear option and mean it. After all, we are dead any way the virus will gut us. Therefore, MAD is the only out.

We are at war in the 21st century, with all its political correctness.

You'd be correct if Covid-19 mortality rate was higher. The biggest risk is economic collapse. The competition is between flattening the infection curve before the economic slowdown becomes economic collapse. I'm thinking that economic stimulus can provide a window. The other wild-card is development of a therapeutic countermeasure in the short term, not a vaccine. I think that is likely too.

In my scenario we don't need a nuclear option unless or until China pushes that button.

And a second point: I don't think this will be a war of attrition, at least not from our end. This will be an economic war and China just doesn't have the ability to adapt or recover quickly. The risk will be that we push them to the breaking point and they elect a kinetic response. We saw this 75 years ago with Japan.

At the simplest level this will become a war of Capitalism/Entrpreneurialism vs Socialism/central economic planning.

[Trapper John]

https://pages-pb.jpmorgan.com/index....l/emailWebview

Thought this would be of interest to yous guys!

[Old Dog New Trick]

I know there are other threads for this but -

Baghdad Bob Schumer and Queen of the Libs Nancy P., are really getting my blood pressure high. Anyone else seeing the BS they are supporting to get included in this stimulus package before congress? They want the green new deal, unrestricted bargaining power for unions along with lifetime unemployment pay.

Anyone that believes all the hysteria about the true nature of what’s really going on here smoked the tea leaves and forgot to read them first. Is the virus deadly yes, yes it is, like many times before many people will die from it and many more infected will recover but this time like before (circa 1976 Swine Flu) it has been politicized for a power grab and redistribution of wealth.

[Old Dog New Trick]

Originally Posted by Trapper John

https://pages-pb.jpmorgan.com/index....l/emailWebview

Thought this would be of interest to yous guys!

Can’t open

[JJ_BPK]

Originally Posted by Trapper John

https://pages-pb.jpmorgan.com/index....l/emailWebview

Thought this would be of interest to yous guys!

TJ,, Link is some sort of email sub-system? Doesn't load..

[Trapper John]

Sorry! JP Morgan sent this to me and apparently I can't share it