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Old 11-22-2020, 07:28   #31
JimP
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Gratefulcitizen, GREAT post, very informative. Keep them coming!!
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Old 11-22-2020, 12:29   #32
GratefulCitizen
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Originally Posted by Last hard class View Post
The American Dream:

Elysium is a good visual. There is an idea out there that AI will someday squeeze the inefficiencies out of business. Which will dramatically change the investing world. At some point this will cause a break line. You will either be above or below the line. If below, the opportunity to get above will be extremely difficult.

Future transportation:

Don't get caught up in EV's. They are just a gating technology. Building the infrastructure's real problem is the amortization for private enterprise. It may be old technology before it pays itself off. That's where big gov comes in. Think Amazon. The internet was a DT but it was lobbying the Senate to not pay sales taxes like brick and mortars that gave Amazon its true competitive advantage. The Gov has done the same to alternative fuels and now technological advances and economies of scale has lowered the cost of electricity so that's its competitive. But its the technological advances that come from the push that is really key. Once again, don't get caught up in today's costs to build a wind power station for example. The cow is out of the barn.

Those Who lyrics: "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss". Energy companies are going to control energy. In whatever form is being used 50-100 years from now. But you globalist guys already know that.

I think a better question related to social change and future transportation is who is going to own a car? And what does that world look like? Mass amounts of money being poured into driverless vehicles. Uber et al is just scratching the surface. As mentioned, labor is the key. But when achieved for those purposes, you now have an underutilized asset. The personal vehicle. Most of the day it doesn't do anything. That's not optimal. Inefficient. As long as one is waiting in your driveway to take you to your destination, that's what really matters. Uber type software is just laying the foundation. Its called behavioral modification. My kid doesn't drive, doesn't want to.

Imagine a national grid of 200 million cars that no one owns. If you use that as a starting point, you can foresee many possibilities affecting our future social fabric.




LHC
Lots of good stuff here.

With regard to driverless vehicles:

UPS has already tested driverless tractors here in Arizona.
There was still a driver sitting at the controls ready to take over, but the computer was driving.

Most of the modern tractors have elements of this technology already, as do many passenger vehicles.
It shows up in: adaptive cruise control/collision mitigation (ACC), lane departure warning systems (LDW), and automated manual transmissions (AMT) in the case of heavy commercial vehicles.

In practice, these technologies reduce driver workload and fatigue so the driver can devote more attention to traffic and things that the sensors might miss.
I can't speak to the effectiveness of the AI, but the sensors are nowhere near ready for driverless vehicles and are easily confused or disabled by rising/setting sun, snow, and electrical gremlins.

The driver is the final safety element on a commercial vehicle before it goes on road and equipment inspection is a significant part of the job.
The driver, not the company, is liable for taking unsafe equipment on road.

Lawyers will be the downfall of driverless vehicles.
Who signs off and agrees to be liable for a driverless vehicle?

We already have something resembling driverless vehicles.
They're called trains.

They still require people at the controls.
They still wreck.


With regard to your Elysium analogy:

This is where most of the working world is getting screwed.
It's largely due to lack of knowledge concerning how debt and taxes really work.

To expand on an earlier post, the solution starts with not taxing wages, allowing employers tax breaks for labor costs but not allowing them tax breaks on depreciation.
There are two goals in this:
-Shift the tax burden away from the employees.
-Put labor and capital on an even playing field.

The next fix would be to make all interest paid on borrowed money tax deductible for natural persons, but not for corporations.
This would start to balance the the access to capital among different wealth/income levels, further level the playing field between capital and labor, and make the banking system (and capital in general) effectively more decentralized.
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Last edited by GratefulCitizen; 11-22-2020 at 12:43.
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Old 11-24-2020, 19:43   #33
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I think a better question related to social change and future transportation is who is going to own a car?
Think TaaS, Transportation As A Service. No upfront cost, no maintenance cost, no Ins cost. Uber and lift, fills the personal future personal transportation need. Autonomous EV at your pecking call. You pay miles driven and TOU (time of use). Google maps and drive.

In this new world ownership of material is not a certification of achievement, but of burden.
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Old 11-24-2020, 22:17   #34
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Your neighbor rats on you for having too many family members at Thanksgiving. Hail a cab, enter your TOU card, the address you want to go to, and go straight to jail instead.
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Old 11-25-2020, 18:25   #35
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Your neighbor rats on you for having too many family members at Thanksgiving. Hail a cab, enter your TOU card, the address you want to go to, and go straight to jail instead.
Pat, you make a good point. When we give up autonomy in exchange for “ease” we often sacrifice our individuality...we sacrifice our privacy.

There are some who advocate for totally giving up the use of cash/currency in exchange for the convenience of plastic.

But, there might be trips that I want to make - with no one knowing...there might be purchases that I might want to make - with no one knowing.

The thought of every trip and every purchase being cataloged for eternity...hopefully individual privacy concerns would be fleshed out better than the social media phenomena - which millions signed on for - without a deep dive into what such a release of personal data might really mean.
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Old 11-26-2020, 06:57   #36
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Your neighbor rats on you for having too many family members at Thanksgiving. Hail a cab, enter your TOU card, the address you want to go to, and go straight to jail instead.
Heinlein scenario that weaves through many of his cautionary tales. Well done sir.
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Old 12-09-2020, 18:07   #37
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So the battery problem and the manufacturing issues for a green future has been solved. Before I go further, I have large position in each of these companies .
TRNE becomes DM tomorrow www.desktopmetal.com Industrial manufacturing on a digit green scale. Partnershiped with all the major auto makers in the world.
QS, www.quantumscape.com Solved the battery issue 80% charge in 15 minutes 800+ rollover charges and still counting. Battery life in excess of 150K, solid-state battery.

DM addresses manufacturing green for EV and QS, solves the power equation. Gene Roddenberry replicator becomes a reality.
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Old 01-22-2021, 01:50   #38
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I wanted to circle back to this idea. This week self driving Cruise (GM) received a $2B investment from Microsoft. (BTW: I also read Gates is now the largest individual farmland holder. So not taking the vaccine wont stop the ingestion of the chip if you buy food from a store.)

And the battery competition is heating up.
15 minutes to charge is so yesterday.

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/01/20...er-10-minutes/

I don't currently own an electric car, but I might when I can drive to Vegas without stopping. Or maybe fly my car there. Talk about crazy town. People cant drive worth a shit as it is now.

TR probably is right about the infrastructure build out feasibility. And Grateful certainly makes excellent points about the realities of driverless cars. I may be wrong about driverless and electric cars. I remember how I thought talking to my computer 20 years ago would eradicate the need to ever type again. As I sit here fat fingering the keyboard. But that was a drop in the bucket compared to this technology. This is going to be a long race. Its just getting started.

We should embrace the coming change. Think about the push to fly to the moon. All the technologies that rippled through the economy because of the forced breakthroughs needed to make it happen. That's right, I drank Tang as a kid. We may not get a true driverless car for 30 years, and the same for electric infrastructure build out. But I'm positive many technological benefits will be garnered from this effort way before then.

And that translates to lots of near term investment opportunities.

Now back to our normal programming: This just in, 8 MPG Pickup trucks are still the best selling vehicles in the U.S.



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Old 01-22-2021, 14:47   #39
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The axiom of "as government expands, freedom declines," may not prove true in the near future. Image the amount of leisure time that is increased as labor is impacted, by the advent of AI meeting industrial replication. The cascade of personal choice's open to the individual will demand the freedom to enjoy one's life. Government will have to meet that understanding.
rofl, rofl when have you ever know government to give up control, EVER.

I think we made a huge mistake not adopting hydrogen.
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Old 01-22-2021, 16:16   #40
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This is very interesting....wonder what a home setup would cost and if you could grow more than "greens."
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Old 01-22-2021, 22:15   #41
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LHC, storedot, quatomscape, Lithium, zinc, copper, solid state batteries will solve the power equation.Henry Ford built a product before there were roads that truly suited the automobile.

We are now using tools that were essentially developed, as stated here, for the NASA program: Battery Powered tools changed the hardware industry. Check out a Restore, the charity donation outfit that resells everything, there you will find beautiful hand saws, drills, lathes, all products we knew from our fathers workbench are now collectibles.

The infrastructure for charging stations will develop rapidly once the battery power, recharge and life cycle is solved. Henry Ford must have loved Eisenhower, but it took 60 years to accomplish that end state, with EV solution in sight, the infrastructure is already mapped out.

I think Costco will put a PLUG like power station in every parking slot and make bank, so will every grocers, and possibly every parking meter in every city. Revenue stream will drive gov't to underwrite the work.
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Old 01-22-2021, 22:30   #42
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Noted By TR, where does the electricity come from to power all the recharging stations? And, the power must be available 24/7.

Gaming that question leads to available space allocation. Solar Panels will be improved, all roof top space, ground, and station will be utilized to collect solar, storage is centralized locally, backed up regionally. For a company like Costco they have a 100000 sq/ft roof that not making them money, plus the ground space they occupy is considerable. If there is to be a green future, NE will have to be accepted.
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Old 01-22-2021, 22:37   #43
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Penn, the next thing I expect to hear from you is how good AOC’s pussy tastes!

I’d include Thornburg but she’s too young for you.






(My apologies to the women here. )
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Old 01-22-2021, 22:56   #44
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I just may not be able to supply that answer. But, O6 cousin is a Professor at Columbia and is one of her advisors. He has mentioned her as possible dinner guest, my thinking was he needed to assess my reaction before extending an invite.

If it happens, I'll post pictures.

Posted in an earlier remark, the impression and presentation of the new deal was poorly executed. Global companies where already in that space. A green future was happening regardless of your political affiliation.

There is a Penny Pot stock I bought in 2018, it has pivoted and is now completely solar. They must have had a WOK moment.
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Old 01-22-2021, 23:10   #45
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I jest, but it is clear that the future is more renewable than the past. Serve her whiskey and wine and call her Brandy.
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