We Are Going To Lose The Coming War With China

[Dusty]

Originally Posted by Flagg

I’ve got an article for US Army Mad Scientist Initiative that covers this.

While I appreciate the linked article and it raises some valid points, I don’t see a clear vision of Chinese execution.

The author mentions strategy in passing, when it needs to be covered in depth.

China actually has a strategy, the US does not.

What I posit is that China’s One Belt One Road initiative could be expanded and iterated to include One Platform, One Network.

US based FAANG+(Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google, +) have far more global reach that China’s BAT(Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent).

But there are key differences.

FAANG+ are at each others’ throats and in perpetual battle with the US government.

BAT and the Chinese government together are far more interoperable acting in a combined arms like fashion.

China’s BAT only has 200+ million users outside China, but total dominance within it.

China merely needs to expand it’s digital reach outside China using dept trap diplomacy, coercion, influence, etc on top of One Belt, One Road to expand it’s digital footprint.

Moore’s Law
Metcalfe’s Law
Zipf’s Law

Applied to geopolitics.

Geodigital strategy.

In my 2030 scenario I have China “acquiring” a Taiwan like proxy thru the application of unconventional and information warfare below the threshold of conventional warfare response.

My 2030 China scenario includes an experimental US Army SF OD-X built to focus on network effects based thinking to counter opposition hybrid networks.

If anyone is interested in reading a draft and offering feedback, I’d be happy to share, I have to submit it to US Army Mad Scentist Initiative by April 1st.

In my 2030 scenario, I have them with zero IT because their capabilities were demolished. From the wok to the fire.

[WarriorDiplomat]

China has quietly crept their presence quietly exploiting the only thing they need to field a world class military capable of fighting a peer......energy.

They have crept into our countries fabric and economy slowly but surely thanks to the Clintons and Obama/Hillary today are deeply imbedded in our economy and in the free world moreso today than ever. Whether it takes 10 yrs or 1000 the Chinese will be more than happy to step in and take over at our weakest moment.

The Chinese are a patient people with the stamina and smarts to watch our nation deteriorate at combat speed.....our society is struggling idealistically with our own citizens our newest young adults and elected officials doing the OPB for our enemies.....slowly creating the conditions for a enemy victory.

The American ego is what they count on the same thing that has deteriorated our military and our politics the disbelief that we are vulnerable.....not taking the Chinese as serious as Trump does is our weakness....they will creep 1 inch a year to achieve their goal....they don't need to terrorize us they just need to wait and IMO continue to cultivate dissent and champion socialism.

Americans are barely on our side....the Chinese will wait as we deteriorate by the death of a thousand cuts to our nation and that is scary.....they can pick and choose when and how

The article is not wrong I just don't see the Chinese seeking to wage a war with us as we see war but more along the lines of their own philosophy and culture in the spirit of Sun Tzu.....America doesn't have the patience, focus or stamina to win a protracted UW in the way the Chinese can.

Not that the Worlds Intelligence agencies did not already know but the emperor has no clothes the transparent swampy corruption in our own politics playing out every night on our infotainment networks....why would the Chinese want to field a military to wage war against us they have too many options.....they just need a peacetime occupation force

[Trapper John]

From Warrior Diplomat

The article is not wrong I just don't see the Chinese seeking to wage a war with us as we see war but more along the lines of their own philosophy and culture in the spirit of Sun Tzu.....America doesn't have the patience, focus or stamina to win a protracted UW in the way the Chinese can.

Not that the Worlds Intelligence agencies did not already know but the emperor has no clothes the transparent swampy corruption in our own politics playing out every night on our infotainment networks....why would the Chinese want to field a military to wage war against us they have too many options.....they just need a peacetime occupation force

EXACTLY If the current culture trend continues unabated,The Chinese simply co-opt America without a shot being fired.

[Old Dog New Trick]

Originally Posted by Trapper John

From Warrior Diplomat

EXACTLY If the current culture trend continues unabated,The Chinese simply co-opt America without a shot being fired.

It’s not just America. Their expansion into SE Asia over the last 30-years (accelerated under Obama/Kerry) has undermined U.S. influence greatly.

As Trump recently said the U.S. has built the China we see today, the same can be said of the China that has built Bangkok/Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam and rapidly moving west into SW Asia. The vertical and horizontal construction projects I saw with my own eyes during the 90s and early 2000s in rural SEA all had Chinese flags on it.

Obama and before that Clinton and the Bushes’ sold America to the highest bidder. New York (Manhattan) and Wall Street was sold long ago to China.

Everything is ‘smoke and mirrors’ even the new turn of events with DPRK. If China flinched Kim Jung Un would be groveling at the feet of the U.S. to end sanctions.

All JMHO...except for the infrastructure building in SEA I saw that in the way-back-machine personally.

[Trapper John]

ODNT: Whereas you are correct, IMHO China is essentially following a neo-colonial policy. This is entirely dependent upon a strong Chinese economy and a Chinese military capable of projecting power. Sound familiar??

The weak point in their strategy is maintenance of a strong economy that is centrally planned and dependent upon maintaining a skewed trade policy with the US. As it appears may be happening, the Trump driven changes to the US/China trade policy may significantly and materially undermine China's ability to execute their form of neocolonialism.

Success with the Trump policy does carry with it a significant downside risk however. Recall the reasons that Japan attacked us at Pearl Harbor! All the more reason to stay the course with a military buildup, IMHO. YMMV

[Dean Jarvis]

I believe all China wants to do is be strong enough militarily to enforce their will to take back Taiwan. I don't see any evidence that China has ever had a desire for world domination. It's always been about protecting their little part of the globe.

I believe the real clear and present danger to the United States is from within.

[JJ_BPK]

Originally Posted by Dean Jarvis

I believe all China wants to do is be strong enough militarily to enforce their will to take back Taiwan. I don't see any evidence that China has ever had a desire for world domination. It's always been about protecting their little part of the globe.

I believe the real clear and present danger to the United States is from within.

Agreed,
The muzzies will be a problem for the Earth for-eva,, but they are easy to spot and deal with.

While SJW's are gender/race/species fluid ankle biters and will seek the low-tide on all continents.

[Badger52]

Originally Posted by JJ_BPK

Agreed,
The muzzies will be a problem for the Earth for-eva,, but they are easy to spot and deal with.

While SJW's are gender/race/species fluid ankle biters and will seek the low-tide on all continents.

Keep in mind the latter are the enablers for the former - even when they acknowledge that they'll be among those eaten.

[WarriorDiplomat]

Originally Posted by JJ_BPK

Agreed,
The muzzies will be a problem for the Earth for-eva,, but they are easy to spot and deal with.

While SJW's are gender/race/species fluid ankle biters and will seek the low-tide on all continents.

SJW's in China get sent to re-education centers....

[Dusty]

Originally Posted by WarriorDiplomat

I just don't see the Chinese seeking to wage a war with us as we see war but more along the lines of their own philosophy and culture in the spirit of Sun Tzu.....America doesn't have the patience, focus or stamina to win a protracted UW in the way the Chinese can.

Ten 4
That's primarily why we Americans considered to be anything from "quaint" to "loco" for trying to convince others (with whom they ostensibly consider a like mindset) that times are favorable to lay, at least, LOCs for application against a common enemy (read China); these efforts are generally assumed to be revolutionary in character & intent and heads wag/tongues click when they're referenced.
Lol, the arrogance inherent in any "American's" belief that the natural cycle of upheaval won't spin to a stop at BANKRUPT at some juncture sooner than later is in my esteem closer to "loco" than quaint.

[Patriot007]

Originally Posted by WarriorDiplomat

The Chinese are a patient people with the stamina and smarts to watch our nation deteriorate at combat speed.....

This. It is easy for us to forget that the entire history of the USA is but a drop in the bucket compared to China's ~3000k years. There is no rush to fight us on near equal terms.

[Little Fish]

China is pouring money and aid into all the Pacific islands historically under the auspices of Australia.
It is a worrying situation.
As well last week two of our chopper pilots were lasered and temporarily blinded by so called Chinese "fishing vessels" in international waters while one if our navy destroyers was closely followed.
Totally agree with Box's great comments made earlier in this thread.

[Flagg]

Small Wars Journal published my US Army Mad Scientist 2030 scenario on China:

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/ar...gital-strategy

Unfortunately, it’s too tech/jargon heavy, but it’s written a bit like an AAR, with fictional lessons learned, recommendations, and summary at the end.

And inclusion of fictional OD-X, counter network operations by US Army SF.

It covers China(Donovia) absorbing Taiwan(Otso) with barely a shot fired.

China has been operating beneath the public detection threshold, obviating the need for an adversary response.

More Boa Constrictor, less Viper.

More Sun Tzu, less Clausewitz.

More competition, less conflict.

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

China has the critical advantage of of political-military-commercial fusion.

https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-china-blog-48552907

WeChat(owned by Tencent of Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei “BATH”) has become an existential need for every one of its citizen-users.

Will China successfully export BATH to developing world countries creating a digital economic platform/network to compete with and supersede the US Dollar based global economy?

Recent efforts by the US to kneecap Huawei across Five Eyes/NATO, while thus far less successful, are akin to the US expending a lot of political capital disrupting the proposed Soviet energy pipeline to NATO customers right after President Reagan was elected.

The Reagan Administration disrupted Soviet income streams, I reckon we have to compete/defeat Chinese political-military-commercial fused Metcalfe’s Law fuelled network effects.

Or we risk coming in 2nd place.

And when Zipf’s Law applies, 2nd place is distant and permanent.

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by Dusty

In my 2030 scenario, I have them with zero IT because their capabilities were demolished. From the wok to the fire.

I hear ya.

But how probable/likely is direct conflict between China/US?

The economic interdependence between China/US is near existential, unlike the nearly complete economic system independence between Soviets/US.

Even if conflict between China/US was held to conventional weapons it would be the global economic rough equivalent of a hand grenade fight inside a phone booth.

‘Hot competition” instead of Cold War?

[Flagg]

Elsa B Kania is an academic worth following on the China problem:

https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/f...telligence.pdf