We Are Going To Lose The Coming War With China

**Pete** · 03-21-2019, 04:59

We Are Going To Lose The Coming War With China

https://townhall.com/columnists/kurt...china-n2543332

An interesting article. Our military command has risen through the ranks over the last 18 years fighting just as he says.

"Nations famously tend to always try to fight the last war, and what America is preparing to do today with the newly assertive China is no exception. The problem is our last war was against primitive religious fanatics in the Middle East and China is an emerging superpower with approaching-peer level conventional capabilities and an actual strategy for contesting the United States in all the potential battlespaces – land, sea, air, space and cyber. America is simply not ready for the Pacific war to come. We’re likely to lose.........'

Trapper John · 03-21-2019, 05:23

Well worth reading! Thanks for posting!

I am spreading this one!

Badger52 · 03-21-2019, 06:25

Thanks for sharing that one; pretty spot on.

JJ_BPK · 03-21-2019, 06:26

100% agreed

Sil is part of the team designing carrier base long-range UCAV . I have mentioned it in the past about the very successful X-47B landing and take-offs from a carrier, THREE YRS AGO. That project sits on the shelve with ZERO plans for completion.

Quote:

Originally Posted by from article

The vulnerability of our carriers is no surprise; the Navy has been warned about it for years. There are a number of ideas out there to address the issue, but the Navy resists. One good one is to replace the limited numbers of (again) super-expensive, short-range manned aircraft with a bunch more long-range drones. Except that means the Naval aviation community would have to admit the Top Gun era is in the past, and that’s too hard. So they buy a bunch of pricy, shiny manned fighters that can’t get the job done.

No idea what the Chinese war gods plan, but if it's anything like the Korean war tactics of mass suicides ground forces,, WITH even a modest tactical air cover,, the intended target country would be screwed.

As a counterpoint,, what do the Chinese have, or plan to develop, to move masses troops other than trucking them over land?

With Russia to the East, and the Himalaya's to the South,

Their targets are limited to Korea? Viet Nam/Cambodia/Thailand peninsula or Japan and the Philapeans.

I'm not sure they could credibly launch an offensive to Oz?

I didn't mention ICBM's because while they are effective, you can't win a ground war with them.

If you want to conquer, you need feet on the ground.

**Pete** · 03-21-2019, 06:41

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJ_BPK

......If you want to conquer, you need feet on the ground.

They already have feet on the ground - on the islands they've built.

It will be a quick Naval war with maybe a second or third round - but at the end they will still be standing on the islands.

That will be their objective - clear ownership of the South China Seas all the way down to Malaysia.

**Box** · 03-21-2019, 07:44

Its been a while since I read Sun-Tzu, but according to some of his writings, I'd say we've already lost.

Our country is doing everything the can to elect communists that want to pass laws to allow children to help vote more communists into office.
We shold stop trying to pretend that the Sanders, Cortez, and Kamalamalas of this world want democratic socialism.
Listen to what they are saying. They want a communist state that they are in charge of. Equality - for everyone - spread around evenly - even if you are "unable or unwilling to work" - and even good ole' Dubya was willing to call it like it is when he spoke of "Our governing class"

STOP.SAYING.SOCIALIST.

I believe it was Kaiser Soze that said, "The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist."
Well, Keaton always said, "I don't believe in God, but I'm afraid of him." Well folks, I believe in God - and the only thing that scares me are American politicians that are trying to sell me on their progressive ideas of equality and democracy.

Dusty · 03-21-2019, 08:08

The Chinese would be facing a generationally-protracted UW situation by the time the FEBA was Texas and North on the west and Appalachia on the East.

NO KOWTOW

**Box** · 03-21-2019, 09:07

I'm honestly not so sure Americans have the collective stomach for a protracted UW campaign.
We live in a microwave society. People cant even wait for a fucking toaster to warm up their pop tarts anymore. Gotta throw that shit in the microwave for 11 seconds - aint nobody got time for a toaster. "We" as a nation just don't seem to give a shit anymore...

-Juicely Smollett faked an assault to stir up racial tension but who cares, Donald Trump twitter flamed somebody yesterday.
-Documented proof that our national university programs are systemically corrupt but Who cares, its just rich folk doing what rich folk do.
-Politicians want to give illegal aliens and children the right to vote in what is now laughably referred to as "elected leadership" but hey - who cares - we just need to have a discussion.
-Drugs are increasingly being considered as nothing more than a recreational commodity- because, well, why not

We dont have much of a homegrown patriot force anymore. Hell - depending on your point of view, Somalian homesteading up north helped elect one of our congressmen - so resident Americans may not be as "all in" for defending American freedoms as some people think they are..
-Those same Texans that are expected to lead the generationally-protracted UW fight are the same ones that almost put Beta Orourke into a senate seat.
-Those same patriots from Appalachia that are going to lead the generationally-protracted UW fight on our eastern flank are the same ones that gave the racist, misogynist democrats in Virginia a full pass for their bullshit.
-Those same patriots North of Texas that are going to stem the tide of multiculturalism are the same ones taking their kids to child-molestor story hour.

I'm sorry in my cynical national viewpoint is in overdrive - I'm just having a hard time finding a mechanic to re-calibrate my moral equivalency sensors.

Trapper John · 03-21-2019, 10:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by Box

I'm honestly not so sure Americans have the collective stomach for a protracted UW campaign.
We live in a microwave society. People cant even wait for a fucking toaster to warm up their pop tarts anymore. Gotta throw that shit in the microwave for 11 seconds - aint nobody got time for a toaster. "We" as a nation just don't seem to give a shit anymore...

-Juicely Smollett faked an assault to stir up racial tension but who cares, Donald Trump twitter flamed somebody yesterday.
-Documented proof that our national university programs are systemically corrupt but Who cares, its just rich folk doing what rich folk do.
-Politicians want to give illegal aliens and children the right to vote in what is now laughably referred to as "elected leadership" but hey - who cares - we just need to have a discussion.
-Drugs are increasingly being considered as nothing more than a recreational commodity- because, well, why not

We dont have much of a homegrown patriot force anymore. Hell - depending on your point of view, Somalian homesteading up north helped elect one of our congressmen - so resident Americans may not be as "all in" for defending American freedoms as some people think they are..
-Those same Texans that are expected to lead the generationally-protracted UW fight are the same ones that almost put Beta Orourke into a senate seat.
-Those same patriots from Appalachia that are going to lead the generationally-protracted UW fight on our eastern flank are the same ones that gave the racist, misogynist democrats in Virginia a full pass for their bullshit.
-Those same patriots North of Texas that are going to stem the tide of multiculturalism are the same ones taking their kids to child-molestor story hour.

I'm sorry in my cynical national viewpoint is in overdrive - I'm just having a hard time finding a mechanic to re-calibrate my moral equivalency sensors.

I generally agree with you but with a somewhat more optimistic if not naïve point of view. Since my stroke, however, my sensors and tolerance level have been seriously recalibrated. Time to reassess the situation and reset priorities.

Dusty · 03-21-2019, 11:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by Box

I'm honestly not so sure Americans have the collective stomach for a protracted UW campaign.
We live in a microwave society. People cant even wait for a fucking toaster to warm up their pop tarts anymore. Gotta throw that shit in the microwave for 11 seconds - aint nobody got time for a toaster. "We" as a nation just don't seem to give a shit anymore...

-Juicely Smollett faked an assault to stir up racial tension but who cares, Donald Trump twitter flamed somebody yesterday.
-Documented proof that our national university programs are systemically corrupt but Who cares, its just rich folk doing what rich folk do.
-Politicians want to give illegal aliens and children the right to vote in what is now laughably referred to as "elected leadership" but hey - who cares - we just need to have a discussion.
-Drugs are increasingly being considered as nothing more than a recreational commodity- because, well, why not

We dont have much of a homegrown patriot force anymore. Hell - depending on your point of view, Somalian homesteading up north helped elect one of our congressmen - so resident Americans may not be as "all in" for defending American freedoms as some people think they are..
-Those same Texans that are expected to lead the generationally-protracted UW fight are the same ones that almost put Beta Orourke into a senate seat.
-Those same patriots from Appalachia that are going to lead the generationally-protracted UW fight on our eastern flank are the same ones that gave the racist, misogynist democrats in Virginia a full pass for their bullshit.
-Those same patriots North of Texas that are going to stem the tide of multiculturalism are the same ones taking their kids to child-molestor story hour.

I'm sorry in my cynical national viewpoint is in overdrive - I'm just having a hard time finding a mechanic to re-calibrate my moral equivalency sensors.

You're right on the money up until the 30-30's come out da closet.

Streck-Fu · 03-21-2019, 11:20

Quote:

Our military command has risen through the ranks over the last 18 years fighting just as he says.

Isn't that true throughout military history?

I agree that China has been rising but is the claim of being "near-peer" a reality? The missile advertised as a carrier killer still has no been tested against mobile ships.

It seems that China is still a volume fighter. They will overwhelm opponents fighting near their territory. Any such conflict with them will be fought in the east and South China seas.

Can we sustain multiple battles when then challenge our F-22s and F--35s with more aircraft than we have missiles? It seems to me, that is the issue.

cbtengr · 03-21-2019, 11:57

Is the United States on the verge of a war with China? Do we have issues? More than likely we do and it's fine to point them out. But I am not going to lose any sleep over going to war with China.

Dusty · 03-21-2019, 12:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by cbtengr

Is the United States on the verge of a war with China? Do we have issues? More than likely we do and it's fine to point them out. But I am not going to lose any sleep over going to war with China.

Me, neither.
It's not as if they have anything in their nucular arsenal with a payload of over won ton; their ground troops break for chow every hour on the hour, as well.

PSM · 03-21-2019, 12:32

"Nations famously tend to always try to fight the last war..."

On the flip-side, wasn't China's last real war against us almost 70 years ago? They march real purdy, though.

Flagg · 03-21-2019, 12:43

I’ve got an article for US Army Mad Scientist Initiative that covers this.

While I appreciate the linked article and it raises some valid points, I don’t see a clear vision of Chinese execution.

The author mentions strategy in passing, when it needs to be covered in depth.

China actually has a strategy, the US does not.

What I posit is that China’s One Belt One Road initiative could be expanded and iterated to include One Platform, One Network.

US based FAANG+(Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google, +) have far more global reach that China’s BAT(Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent).

But there are key differences.

FAANG+ are at each others’ throats and in perpetual battle with the US government.

BAT and the Chinese government together are far more interoperable acting in a combined arms like fashion.

China’s BAT only has 200+ million users outside China, but total dominance within it.

China merely needs to expand it’s digital reach outside China using dept trap diplomacy, coercion, influence, etc on top of One Belt, One Road to expand it’s digital footprint.

Moore’s Law
Metcalfe’s Law
Zipf’s Law

Applied to geopolitics.

Geodigital strategy.

In my 2030 scenario I have China “acquiring” a Taiwan like proxy thru the application of unconventional and information warfare below the threshold of conventional warfare response.

My 2030 China scenario includes an experimental US Army SF OD-X built to focus on network effects based thinking to counter opposition hybrid networks.

If anyone is interested in reading a draft and offering feedback, I’d be happy to share, I have to submit it to US Army Mad Scentist Initiative by April 1st.