03-24-2018, 10:39
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#1
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Area Commander
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: The Black Hills of SD
Posts: 5,917
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Out-of-control Chinese space station will 'crash into Earth over Easter weekend'
Get yer umbrellas out ....
Quote:
Out-of-control Chinese space station will 'crash into Earth over Easter weekend' with New York and southern Europe in the firing line
China's out-of-control space station will crash into Earth this coming Easter weekend, according to the European Space Agency.
The agency's Space Debris Office has said Tiangong-1 will hit somewhere across our planet's northern hemisphere between March 30 and April 2.
Previous estimates suggested the rogue station, which is carrying highly toxic chemicals, would enter Earth's orbit on April 3.
According to experts tracking the station, it has the highest chance of crashing along a narrow strip around latitudes of 43 degrees north and south.
This includes a number of highly populated cities including New York, Barcelona, Beijing, Chicago, Istanbul, Rome and Toronto.
The ESA said crash date estimates were 'highly variable' and that its experts would be offering revised forecasts every couple of days.
'At no time will a precise time/location prediction from ESA be possible,' the agency's Space Debris Office, based in Darmstadt, Germany, said in a statement.
'This forecast was updated approximately weekly through to mid-March, and is now being updated every 1~2 days.'
The doomed 8.5-tonne craft has been hurtling towards Earth since Chinese scientists lost control of it in 2016.
Experts believe most of Tiangong-1 will burn up upon reentry, but shards as large as 100kg (220lbs) could strike Earth.
Scientist believe that even in 'high risk' areas, the chance of being struck by Tiangong-1 debris is about one million times smaller than the odds of winning the Powerball jack.
However, there is a chance parts of the station containing hazardous hydrazine could plummet into a highly-populated area.
Continued, here ---> http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencete...ocial-facebook
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Sdiver is offline
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03-24-2018, 22:10
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#2
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Auxiliary
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Portland, Oregon area
Posts: 74
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So apparently it's going to hit somewhere on the planet Earth? And they'll let us know where it's going to crash after it hits... somewhere around 43 deg N or South parallel... And update... oh, at about 5 deg North and not in Europe or either of the Americas but maybe the Philippines?... Lets see how it changes in the next few days.. Maybe it'll go back to China where it came from!!
G2
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G2squared is offline
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03-25-2018, 04:27
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#3
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: 18 yrs upstate NY, 30 yrs South Florida, 20 yrs Conch Republic, now chasing G-Kids in NOVA & UK
Posts: 11,901
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JJ_BPK is offline
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03-25-2018, 09:30
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#4
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Auxiliary
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Portland, Oregon area
Posts: 74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JJ_BPK
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Theoretically?
I've used similar SW for Ham Radio to track ISS because it has a repeater that you can bounce off with 2m when it's close enough overhead. Some of the apps show other satellites too but I've never searched for China's space station on it.
I think the biggest problem the super smart guys have with predicting the impact zone is the changing mass and speed as parts break off. They don't know just how big of chunks will break off and how much that'll change the drag coefficient of the whole thing and do lots more calculations for mass, velocity, gravity, changes to drag based on weather it's going through (which meteorologist still haven't mastered predicting), changes to drag based on if a part that came off causes it to start tumbling and it turns into a whole lot of wait and see.
I tried to make sense of the whole 43N and 43S bands and still couldn't figure out how they came up with that!? If it might hit in the 43N AO wouldn't it also be possible to hit anywhere in between as it moves between those two regions?
This is why I'm not employed by NASA, along with a lot of other "I'm not a smart man" reasons. . .
G2
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G2squared is offline
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03-30-2018, 09:45
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#5
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Auxiliary
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Portland, Oregon area
Posts: 74
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No need to worry. China says it’s safe.
"There is no need for people to worry about its re-entry into the atmosphere," an article by the China Manned Space Engineering Office published on state media said.
"It won't crash to the Earth fiercely, as in sci-fi movie scenarios, but will look more like a shower of meteors."
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G2squared is offline
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04-01-2018, 10:55
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#6
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Fayetteville
Posts: 13,080
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Dropping in Altitude
Dropping in altitude pretty fast today.
As of now it's down to 151.24 Km and speed is 28126 km/h.
Will not be long now.
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Pete is offline
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04-01-2018, 19:49
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#7
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Area Commander
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Western WI
Posts: 6,817
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pete
Dropping in altitude pretty fast today.
As of now it's down to 151.24 Km and speed is 28126 km/h.
Will not be long now.
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What's left into the biggest pond at 0016Z.
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Badger52 is offline
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04-02-2018, 15:59
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#8
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Area Commander
Join Date: May 2011
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 1,423
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Badger52
What's left into the biggest pond at 0016Z.
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Quite a similar de-orbit and impact track to the Russian Mir.
Considering the size of the place, quite a coincidence, especially since Mir was a managed de-orbit and the Chinese one was a completely out of control soup sandwich.
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Flagg is offline
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04-02-2018, 21:36
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#9
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Area Commander
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Cochise Co., AZ
Posts: 6,175
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Reminded me of Skyrab, er, uh, Skylab. Sorry.
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PSM is offline
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04-03-2018, 05:39
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#10
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: State of Confusion
Posts: 5,746
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pfft
I was hoping that fucker would strike in an overpopulated urban center and initiate an apocalypse of sorts.
...what a gyp.
Better luck next time
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Box is offline
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04-03-2018, 06:39
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#11
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Area Commander
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Maryland
Posts: 1,235
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Box
pfft
I was hoping that fucker would strike in an overpopulated urban center and initiate an apocalypse of sorts.
...what a gyp.
Better luck next time
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You mean an urban overpopulated area like....Hollyweird, or LA....Baltimore would do, need to get rid of the riff-raff....Gee, was getting ready for the Apocalypse.....
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