Team Selection, Scenario One

[GratefulCitizen]

Originally Posted by Peregrino

I like the way you're thinking!

I call it "consent of the governed".

[FlagDayNCO]

Another nice thread, that when merged with the other related threads, goes into a very nice teaching format.

Based on experience (getting older), and determining all of those early ideas on bugging out present more risk than safety, I have been involved locally to lay the ground work for tribe and community leaders.

With what I did learn from my military experience, especially some great QPs, was identifying the various skill sets in our immediate area, as well as resources, risks, etc. There are also others that own businesses or live locally that have been thinking along the same lines. They may not all be preparing, but they have already started identifying risks and safety measures. Capitalize on this and add them to your network.

There may be other tribes forming close by. Merging of these tribes is a natural progression. Mutual aid in each other's defense or assistance during disaster can only help.

Several family members that continue to live in NJ know to come to my house in PA. They have skills sets that will contribute to what we need to do to survive and stay safe. They also know what to bring from their homes to bulk up what I have on hand.

The neighbors in my immediate area. Now that is a fine discussion point, as has been mentioned. Some are more trust worthy than others, yet all are here. Some, I would even consider suspect, based on their political choices, actions during power outages/ storms, etc.

Realize that when you/we form a tribe, that not everyone will agree on your methods or decisions. Some will insist that they want the Government to help; even when there is clearly no Government to help in your area. Have a plan on what to do with these people, or at least discuss your observations with others you trust.

Just as the subject of LEO going rogue, the same criteria must be laid down with those living within your community.

Now, for those that are not capable or maybe willing to patrol or help defend, find a job they can or will do. Fire Watch comes to mind. Have them walk the roads to check houses that are burning alternate fuels during the power outage. By doing so, they have effectively become another set of eyes on patrol.

Give them other work. Wood Choppers/ Collectors. Water. Tending livestock.

During Sandy, the grid did fail, but was put back as fast as was safely possible. Entire sections of infrastructure were wiped out. Gone. This was in an area with some of the best public utilities in America, so imagine it will be much worse in many other areas. Imagine if there was some sabotage on the utility networks after the initial natural disaster. Very possible and could speed up the downfall or create other problems.

Get to know the local pharmacy instead of WalMart. You will need meds and they have them. Know who owns livestock. Where are uninterrupted water sources located? Underground springs?

Learn the history of the place you live. That water source may be from a Super Fund site shut down 40 years ago, and hasn't been reported in the media recently. Real Estate agencies work hard to eliminate negative information for future sales potential.

Yes, there is a lot to think about, but these threads keep us current. Continuing education, I would like to think.

[The Reaper]

The quality of the feedback we have seen to this thread is amazing.

Two big points so far.

First you need a group of trustworthy individuals with diverse skills, the larger the better.

Second is the CA and PSYOP aspect of this effort. Frankly, I think most people miss that entirely.

Excellent points, thanks!

TR

[mugwump]

I was the one who had to withstand the vetting in "my" group. I was simultaneously evaluating them with equal due diligence, but from their perspective it was me joining them. I am gradually working myself up from "Skippy the FNG" status. They no longer think I'm stupid, just ignorant.

Long story short, I bought the farm next-door to my old college roommate. Having the ownership go "outside the hollow" wasn't their ideal outcome, but it was 2009, they were tapped out and the banks weren't lending, and it was me or a REIT. They're now quite happy with the way it turned out but I've had to work really, really hard to make it so.

Before the purchase my family and I met all of the other 4 families in the hollow. While they were friendly and sociable, I was grilled about my background, politics, skills, my kids and their accomplishments, etc. We encounter the same indirect grilling in town. My buddy says people like us, so we'll be accepted in just two generations instead of three.

Plinking with them at the quarry was a turning point. We hustled them after pressing the bets.

We're absentee but make a point to volunteer labor (prep little league fields, work summer festival booths) when we visit. I lease the cropland/pasturage to my friend at market prices and his son rents the house from me for $1/year. I've gradually shifted most of my preps there and we hope to (mostly) live there in two years after the new house is built. I hope to continue to rent the old farmhouse to the son. He's a great kid with a great wife (even though her goats ate all my apple tree saplings).

Like me, the guys in the hollow can imagine a high-impact event. While I don't think there's more than a 5-10% chance, they are more in the 1-in-4 camp. We were originally planning on a "hold the hollow" defensive strategy but I did a METT-TC analysis and came to the conclusion that even if we were successful, we'd be buggered if the local town was lost. We've since moved to a "hold the township" strategy which I think is better defensively and would give us more clout if/when the State government wakes us and tries to muscle us for our crops. We're willing to share food for political considerations but won't stand for confiscation.

I'll dig up my METT-TC for defense of the hollow and edit it down to something readable--it's scope is more in line with The Reaper's original challenge.

[mugwump]

This may be a bit of a tangent thread-wise, but relevant overall. Check out http://shtfschool.com by a guy named Selco. Fascinating stuff. My daughter's BFF from college recommended it to me. She's a former Bosniak, now a US citizen, who was a girl in Sarajavo during the siege. (She's working about 90 mi from the farm and knows she has a place at the table. Total sweetheart, sharp as a tack, looks like a princess but hard as woodpecker lips, has medical training, CCWs every day and runs an AK like a boss. She's a young woman who learned some hard lessons at an early age. Here's hoping one of the sons wakes up. )

This Selco guy is cagey about the locale (BFF insists Sarajavo) but he relates his experiences surviving in a former Yugo city during the war. He talks about the shockingly quick breakdown of order, building a defensive clan, avoiding attention, bartering strategies, gangs, the large numbers of 'good' people who go over to the dark side (and then reintegrate after the war ends...he's quite pragmatic and forgiving), items that were valuable and things that were useless, movement in a city overtaken by anarchy, religion and ethics, the city versus the countryside--it's really quite fascinating. It started out as a blog and has evolved to having "coursework" for sale but the vast majority of the articles and advice are free. Highly recommended. Be ready to lose a few hours. The newest entries are on top; I recommend starting on the last page and moving up.

[The Reaper]

Yep.

I've read his stuff, and its good.

TR

[mugwump]

I've had several serious talks with the daughter's BFF over the last three years. She's in total agreement with me about city/suburbs versus the country in a survival situation and she's all for preparing for the worst and fighting to preserve your place. But what has impressed me is her unshakable position that for every 2 hours spent preparing a homestead--security, water, food, sanitation, etc.--I should spend at least one hour on plans to flee from it. She definitely believes that you never really own more than you can carry at a dead run. Her recommendation is to plant caches all around a retreat in widening circles. Nothing fancy: a hotel size bar of soap, a Bic lighter, a can with a wire bail, a razor blade, couple bottles of water, dried soup and tea, etc. Nothing extensive but enough to keep you moving. In the closer ring of caches have old shoes, coats, mittens, hats. Basically anything too worn out for everyday use goes into a black garbage bag and gets cached. A map to all of the caches are in one of the old shoes in each close cache. She laughed when I said it was a security risk: "If they're chasing you you're dead so why worry? They'll be too busy eating your food and chasing your chickens."

Her family had to run three times and each time the conditions at the destination were worse than what they came from. Once they were driven into the countryside in inclement weather with the kids in nightclothes. Hence the shoe/clothes caches.

I must admit I haven't followed her advice yet.

[Sdiver]

Interesting how a lot of the responses here, you would stay and defend the "homestead." Personally, I'd like to take my chances away from major metropolitan areas.

Like Tomahawk said, here in Denver, people would be heading up to the "mystical" safety of the mountains, that's why I would look (and already have a route(s) picked out) south and east. I do have a route south and west up into the hills if needed, but if possible, given this scenario, with 12 hour notice, I'd most definitely be heading south and east.

The one thing I'd be thi9nking about heading that way is, there's not a whole hell of a lot of cover. Lots of wide open spaces. So traveling would interesting. Do I do it during the day, where you can see someone traveling from miles away, or do I travel at night and run the risk of being seen with IR detection? May have to look at getting thermal blankets and place over the hood of the truck while I travel, and then only travel for short distances (10-15 miles) at a time to keep it from getting "super hot" and creating a big IR signature.

More things to think about.

[Flagg]

We had a couple REAL bad earthquakes here a few years back.

Enough to see our part of the city without electricity, water, and sewerage out for extended periods(weeks to months).

I was a 12 on/24 off cordon commander and during my 24 "off" my guys and I still worked sourcing and distributing potable water in pretty substantial quantity(thousands of litres a day) to our own neighborhoods.

We developed a pretty efficient distribution system around convenient neighborhood hubs(street side in front of an active community member's garage), brought non-serving folks into it, and slowly pulled ourselves out of it to get some rest and allow us to focus on some other stuff.

We tried a "stone soup" exercise....which both worked and failed.....we put in things like pasta and thawing freezer meat...and the neighbors put in their "stones" and ate it.

But they got the message and thawing food was used for neighborhood BBQs sharing LPG bottles and BBQs which helped to bind ultra-local ties.

Being in the middle of summer helped.

But to be honest, the community engagement side of it went really well....it bound our community together a bit better(already good coms/relations)...and since I had arranged the water....people listened and acted when I made a few suggestions.

Nearly 3 years later my wife was just asked by someone who just moved in if it was her husband who organized water for everyone.

The only downside for us was the unfortunate case of a serving soldier("peer" NCO) living nearby who dumped his hysterical family on mine while I was on the job.

His wife and teenaged kids going nuts with ZERO pantry food or stored water. My wife gave them 2 days worth and kicked them off our property due to behavioral issues with the encouragement of our rottweiler. Thankfully, he is out of the unit and out of the neighbourhood.

The rest of the neighbours were all around above average. We found the folks to rely on were the older/retired but still active folks happy to take on the role of ultra-local "glue" a couple of houses in every direction.

Coms was a biggie......organizing my soldiers and coms with chain of command was mostly by txt message due to voice traffic overload.

Then the battery back ups on the cell towers failed on about day 3.

And it took a bit to sort out gennie recharging until mains power was back on.

I've been recently fiddling with a mesh network smart phone app that can daisy chain voice/txt/data via smart phone.......but it requires the ability to recharge phones as well as phone density to get a decent mesh to reach your target.

A couple of us NCOs kept in touch via quiet parts of the spectrum on occasion, but it wasn't really needed, as mobile phone coms were not out for long periods, and being out of uniform and without amateur licenses it was slightly naughty. Just a bit of self-directed training.

My only and biggest regret was missing an opportunity to partner with a local mashup organization called the Student Volunteer Army.

The SVA self-org'd and tried jumping in the mix to help(several thousand students). If I could go back and do it over I'd have just jumped in and embedded one of my soldiers(some of which are university students, the rest young working professionals) with each working sub group to liaise and coordinate their desire to help with the needs of the main rescue/recovery effort.

Unfortunately, after getting my ass kicked for "borrowing"(with owner's permission shortly after) two privately owned civilian trucks that we filled, staged, and certified with 28000L of potable water less than 6 hours after the quake I was gun shy to try anything "less than conventional".

I've been in touch with the SVA since to investigate and understand their timeline of events. It turns out they had a very hard time working with the relief effort, they basically were told to go home. Although the organization later received wide recognition for their independent efforts.

Crime was interesting and revealing.

The usual suspects(tweakers/opportunists) tried to take advantage. The justice system, media, and public gave the Police( and Army in support) a lot of latitude and moral support.

We worked in a mix of Police and Army and I even got to drive a cop car with the lights on(but no siren). We caught our share of idiots, but not as many as I thought there might be.

The number of hot young university students, MILFs, and aunties/grandmas that spent a good chunk of their day baking treats and making up big vats of coffee/tea for folks working the rescue/recover was awesome.

Terrible pain in the ass, but in some respects it's renewed my faith in humanity.

A couple out of every hundred were assholes, but a couple more than that stepped up and did something to help.

The rest were in the middle.

I reckon maybe it's a bit like what I read here about UW.....a couple percent on either end of the spectrum is what makes or breaks it.

Key points for me:

*potable water
*community engagement pre-event makes it easy(er)
*potable water
*persistent mesh coms.....a smartphone app, a bunch of hand crank chargers, and a WIFI amplifier antenna TIMES heaps might work
*potable water
*just go with the unconventional solution if my gut tells me it's right and take my lumps later

Just my amateur 0.02c

[Flagg]

Almost forgot!

When I read this thread I remembered another related thread and link here:

http://www.professionalsoldiers.com/...ad.php?t=41217

http://www.thedailysheeple.com/why-y...prepper_022013

[Penn]

Interesting scenario.

[Spiffav8]

Flagg....Thank You. Recently my wife and I attended a course put on by the police department that she works for that was designed to better prepare the departments employees for a huge disaster. I was very surprised to hear that an Earthquake was the number one threat to the city we live in, until they explained it. Water, power, gas and food would be gone within 48 hours and relief assistance could take up to Ten days to arrive. Even when it did, it wouldn't be to help the average person, but rather to get the local government back up and working. It was explained that a City like ours is very much an island. We produce nothing here, everything is shipped in. There are five routes in or out and it's a haul to the next place one would be able to find supplies. Water was the number one item they brought up as a must for being prepared. One gallon, per person, per pet, per day was the number we where given. The course really got us thinking and we've made some great plans, though no where near some of what's been mentioned here. Lot of good ideas!

As for bug out, bug in....I like layers in this area. We have enough food and water to last us six months in our home. With a little notice, I could secure the windows and doors. We are able to defend our home, but that's limited by our numbers (probably four adults). Our second layer is our 4x4 truck. If we had to abandon our home, the truck would already be loaded with a decent amount of supplies, ready to go in our enclosed garage (assuming the house is still standing). That will only get us so far and I would fully expect every mountain road/path to be clogged. For that reason we carry B.O.B.s in all our vehicles. Not only could they help us get home if needed, but if we had to abandon the 4x4 would could survive for one week, with what we have in them.

We have a small group of about eight that we have made some plans with for a disaster. We have several places to meet up that are scattered around the city. Everyone brings quality skills to the mix, in addition to being trustworthy and hard working. Comms are the real challenge for us. As for outsiders....probably not.

Who knows what type of, or when a disaster might hit, but when you look into all that could happen during an earthquake....it's a good one to be prepared for.

Originally Posted by Brush Okie

Long story short I would stay home and organize my neighbors and community. Since it is a federal country thing the problem will be everywhere. Using my CA skills we would keep our neighborhood safe and fed. If someone wants to come to our little town METT-TC and logistics would determine if we allowed them. We have a local prison in town so the question would be what to do with the inmates. I know what my vote would be.

When I was working the Jail Division many years ago, we (a lot of us) discussed this very same issue. We had several plans. Neither were compassionate towards most of the inmate population.

[mojaveman]

Ok, I'll try and respond to this scenario as realistically as possible.

A magnitude 8+ earthquake strikes along the San Andreas fault in Southern California. Civic centers, hospitals, freeway overpasses, electrical power, water supplies - all down. The National Guard as well as active duty Marines and Army all arrive to enforce martial law (happened during the LA riots in '92).

Have already decided I'm staying put. I live in a 3K square foot home on an acre of land in a white middle class area. My greatest concern, and especially during the summer, would be water. It would also be the concern of the other 20 million people living in Southern California. I have two 55 gallon plastic drums full of water on the property but should probably have more. Three immediate neighbors have swimming pools. The Santa Ana River is 10 miles away and Lake Matthews is 5 miles away. If necessary I would procure more water by using a 5 gallon plastic jerry can in a rucksack on my back.

In the first 12 hours I would probably go to the local supermarket which is a mile from my house and buy as many cans of beans as I could. You can eat them hot or cold, they don't require refridgeration, they don't need water to prepare and they are filling and provide plenty of protein.

Already have enough firearms and ammo to feel comfortable with. My weapon of choice in guarding my property would be a 12 guage shotgun with a barrel light and a magazine full of number 4 buckshot.

I live with one other person and can't see wanting to add any others mostly because of food and water requirements. I would only allow relatives to join if they lost their homes or weren't properly prepared. In this case they could help gather food and water and also help with security. All of my relatives are honest hard working people of good character so no problems there. I do have a brother who is a doctor.

If the scenario ended up lasting a long time I would resort to taking small game and fish of which there are plenty not far from where I live.

[The Reaper]

Originally Posted by MAB32

When I was working the Jail Division many years ago, we (a lot of us) discussed this very same issue. We had several plans. Neither were compassionate towards most of the inmate population.

Honestly, I can't see releasing any prisoner who had any history of being a violent felon. Sorry, but that is just the way I would call it.

Misdemeanors (who probably shouldn't be in a prison, just jailed) and non-violent felons would probably be okay to release if the jails and prisons couldn't be secured and resourced.

Originally Posted by mojaveman

Ok, I'll try and respond to this scenario as realistically as possible.

A magnitude 8+ earthquake has just struck along the San Andreas fault in Southern California. Civic centers, hospitals, freeway overpasses, electrical power, water supplies - all down. The National Guard as well as active duty Marines and Army all arrive to enforce martial law (happened during the LA riots in '92).

Have already decided I'm staying put. I live in a 3k square foot home on an acre of land in a white middle class area. My greatest concern, and especially during the summer, would be water. It would also be the concern of the other 20 million people living in Southern California. I have two 55 gallon plastic drums full of water on the property but should probably have more. Three immediate neighbors have swimming pools. The Santa Ana River is 10 miles away and Lake Matthews is 5 miles away. If necessary I would procure more water by using a 5 gallon plastic jerry can in a rucksack on my back.

In the first 12 hours I would probably go to the local supermarket which is a mile from my house and buy as many cans of beans as I could. You can eat them hot or cold, they don't require refrigeration, they don't need water to prepare and they are filling and provide plenty of protein.

Already have enough firearms and ammo to feel comfortable with. My weapon of choice in guarding my property would be a 12 guage shotgun with a barrel light and a magazine full of number 4 buckshot.

I live with one other person and can't see wanting to add any others mostly because of food and water requirements. I would only allow relatives to join if they lost their homes or weren't properly prepared. In this case they could help gather food and water and also help with security. All of my relatives are honest hard working people of good character so no problems there. I do have a brother who is a doctor.

If the scenario ended up lasting a long time I would resort to taking small game and fish of which there are plenty not far from where I live.

I respect that you have made some preparations, but am not sure that a daily ten mile hump with 45 pounds of water is a sustainable solution. Better to get some BoBs, rainbarrels, and more 55 gallon barrels, and try to coordinate with the neighbors to use pool water. The good news is that 110 gallons of water represents almost two months of drinking water for two people. Probably more like a month with other uses.

You should not count on being able to procure more food, but work to pick up an extra few cans every time you shop. Maybe beans one week, maybe a 50 pound bag of rice the next, if you eat rice. Even if you have plenty of a food item, food fatigue can be a real problem. I would say that you should devote your resources to buying at least a little extra food every week till you have at least two weeks of food that you routinely eat and a way to open cans and cook your food.

A shotgun is a fine weapon for overtly engaging a few targets at less than 50 yards. If that is the limit of your threat, you are adequately armed. You should get plenty of ammo before someone outlaws lead pellets.

Unfortunately, you cannot do all of the tasks you will need to do and pull security 24 hours per day. I would look for like minded neighbors and try to form a "community watch" or other team effort.

20 million people are going to strip every food source and quickly deplete any wildlife that remains in the area. They have the same plan you do.

TR