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Old 05-11-2007, 17:14   #1
WhiskeyBoarder
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A Novice Look at Iraq - Thanks!

Gentlemen,

I always post here with a bit of hesitancy as I feel less qualified then others to express my opinion. This hesitancy is born of utmost respect. I have lurked on these boards for over two years now and choose my words sparingly. However, I wrote this little tidbit up tonight in my boredom and, despites its extended length, could think of no other place to gather worthy opinion then here.

I respectfully encourage any interested parties to read the following. It concerns a wealth of thought on the current situation in Iraq. Also, please note, that I wrote it with the intention of publishing it as a private blog amongst friends (whom I tired of explaining my Middle East opinions), so if it doesn’t seem directed toward the types on this forum, please know that it wasn’t.

Thanks Gentlemen.





The following is an abridged version of what I feel is going on currently in Iraq, what has led to the current situation – focusing particularly on issues that continue to influence certain in-country parties- and what to do to most effectively walk away from the situation with something resembling a more globally-beneficial Iraq then what we started with prior to the year 2002.

All of this is being written in one sitting and is my own original work. As such, it is not being professionally written, other then to be as grammatically proper as possible, and will include no citations because all ideas, opinions, and views are being developed originally. Also, I have no worldly influence for writing this. I have no scholastic or monetary gains in mind. Rather, I am- more or less- just bored and interested in the topic.

The only authority that I have to write on this topic with any sort of knowledge-base is four years military experience, of which most was spent on the ground, in Iraq, with light infantry battalions. Other then that, I am just a lowly undergraduate student, studying Middle East politics and history while attempting to obtain a B.A. in International Studies with a Minor in Religion. Could I be totally off-base in my assessment? It’s probable, but I beg only that you hear me out. Maybe something I say could be beneficial in some form, if for no other reason then to start interesting dialogue.

And, as a disclaimer, I am a Republican and a huge supporter of our current President, despite his flaws (like, for example, not being truly CONSERVATIVE). I also support all participation in Iraq and have been supportive since day one. I participated. I shed blood, tears, plenty of sweat, lost friends and killed bad people. While I will attempt to be unbiased, I feel obligated to let my prejudice be known. Now….

First of all, I hate to shortchange thousands of years of history by condensing all of it into a few paragraphs, but I am constrained by limitations that are guided by how long my interest will stand for this writing. Prior to the beginning of this latest Iraq war, I have had concerns with the Middle East in general and Iraq in particular. The biggest dilemma that faces the region is not religiously motivated but rather geo-politically (“geo-politics” to be a major theme throughout this writing). Certain ethnic divisiveness has contributed, throughout history, into the development of the Middle East. One divide stands out particularly; the Arab and the Persian, which given Iraq’s location should immediately stand out as a precursor to the current predicament. (Continued...)
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Old 05-11-2007, 17:16   #2
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(...Continued from Above)

However, let’s just say, hypothetically, that the Middle East was developing in a bloody but natural manner throughout history. I feel that this “natural” development came to a crashing end following the fall of the Ottoman Empire. Suddenly, around that point in history, you have an entire region to be split between different Western imperialistic influences. The French had their mandate, the British theirs, and, of course, the United States had its own influence. The way my history looks back is thusly: countries in the Middle East were formed and shaped based on these foreign ownerships and not on what was most obviously correct for the region. And the creation of these countries, with boundaries that many times joined people of totally separate ethnic and religious ties, has been the single most devastating system of events to occur in the region. The creation of these countries in such a haphazard manner, to me, has been the most extreme cause of strife. And now we have an ample opportunity to correct at least one of these country’s problems.

So, let’s go from there. We have countries that exist that, if not for Western influence, really should not. But, remember, we are focusing on Iraq. Here is a country that suffers from all the maladies mentioned above. Not only do its borders contain large populations of three religiously divided groups, but it also sits directly on the Persian and Arabian divide. On one side, you have Persian Iran. On the other, you have Arab Saudi Arabia. What could good be expected of such an unfortunately geographically-placed nation?

Now with these two influences leaning heavily on each side of the country of Iraq, you have a further agitator. His name was Sadaam Hussein. But let’s remember; Sadaam was a Baathist. Scholarly types seem to forget what the Baathist party stood for (and what it still currently stands for in other nations) and that is NOT religious superiority. That is far from the truth. The Baathist platform, in a nutshell, contains a goal of spreading Pan-Arabism regardless of faith. So, suggesting that Saddam had intentions of staying true to his party’s most worthy intention, you can see how this would be particularly disheartening for its neighbor to the east, Iran.

Trying to unite an Arab nation would explain exactly why Sadaam had goals of crushing his Kurdish residents in the northern regions of his country. Adding intensity to all the disputes going on in Iraq was the Islamic Revolution that occurred in Iran in the late ‘70s. Now Iran became a pro-Shia Muslim country. Hussein, on the other hand, was a devout Sunni. Iran definitively becomes Iraq’s enemy number one, because they not only represent Persia but an opposing faction of Islam.

What does all this mean? Iraq was a kettle with the fires of hell burning underneath of it, just ready to boil over. American intervention in 2003 may have agitated the kettle, but it was already spilling. What American intervention did do, however, was give any hope to the situation. If the spark that would have ignited the country had come via any of the country’s three ethnically different groups, we would have a much worse situation now. Even scarier would have been an Iran-initiated conflict that would not only have pitted Shia versus Sunni but Persian versus Arab. With Western influence, at least now there is hope of some stability that these other options simply did not suggest.

So what is going on now? This is where go-politics comes in. The current situation in Iraq does not hinge on religion. I repeat: Iraqis, as a general overview, are not fighting over religious differences. This is not to say that the guys on the streets might not be motivated by religion, but that is because they are “low men on the totem pole.” Religion is propaganda being used by leaders with much more deeply rooted agendas.

And those agendas revolve around geo-politics. In a perfect world, the Kurds to the north would have their own autonomous region. As would the Sunnis to the west, separated from Persia by a Shia nation in the south. Perfect, right?

Not so much and here is why. The geography of these hypothetical nations precludes them from developing. Sure, the Sunnis want independence but not in the deserted western regions of Iraq. There are hardly resources there to be economically dependent on and, worse, no connection to water to transport anything they do have to offer. So their recourse seems to be to smash the Shia to the south. In my hypothesis, the Kurds and the Sunnis could co-exist, given the Sunni nation has access to the Gulf in the south. The only method for the Sunnis to get this access seems to be via destroying the southern Shia nation.

And this, in my assessment, is why we currently have a mess. Precluding the relatively peaceful northern Kurdish region in the north, a pan-Arab nation of Sunnis and Shias for all of these reasons simply will not work. There is entirely too much influence from Shia Iran to allow the Sunni nation to survive and geo-politics limit the Sunnis from desiring such to work anyway. Uniting the two simply isn’t an answer because one faction will never settle on a straight up “50/50” government, which democracy would never create anyway. So where’s the answer?

My solution is not well thought-out, a bit abstract, and more of just a development of early thought. But why not attempt a two nation system? The Kurds can have their northern region since they seem content with just that. That would constitute the first nation. A federation can occur for the remaining Sunni and Shia regions; a federation of two states. The western Sunni region would extend from its current figurative area with a small arm cutting down the eastern side (opposite Iran) of the Shia nation, giving just enough room to create some sort of access to the Basrah port area. In exchange, the Shias can have further access to the north. Oil revenue, which would be generated most predominately by the Shia south, would be distributed throughout the two-state federation. And, you know what? As hard as it is to swallow, allow the country to adopt whatever sort of government they choose. Democracy simply will not work when population numbers dictate that one faction will out-seat another. So allow them to choose a different form of government. Let the American mission in Iraq to become the spread of peace and unity in the region and less the spread of democracy. Hard for us military-types to swallow, but maybe something that needs to be realized.

Of course, any idea like this is a pipedream as it would take renewed support from the globe’s militaries to stand in support of the new federation until they can support themselves. There are entirely too many outside threats to expect this fledgling new federation to exist without early outside support.

And, if all this fails, my only other foreseeable option is much more difficult to accept. Let Iran absorb the Shia south, satisfy them and bring about Middle East stability through appeasement. But this opens a whole new can of worms.

I genuinely feel that if my two state federation idea were more thoughtfully developed by those with much more education and experience then my own, it could be a viable plan. It would take time, but any plan would. Furthermore, it would promote stability. And stability in the Middle East should be our (American) utmost desire even greater then the spread of democracy.

Just my two cents. Thanks!

Steve B.
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Old 05-13-2007, 06:41   #3
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Kurds

How will an independant Kurdish state impact the Kurds in Turkey and Iran?

How will Turkey and Iran react to an independant Kurdish state on their border?

Africa suffers from the same problem. Tribes are split by borders drawn by Europeans.
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Old 05-13-2007, 07:49   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pete
How will an independant Kurdish state impact the Kurds in Turkey and Iran?

How will Turkey and Iran react to an independant Kurdish state on their border?

Africa suffers from the same problem. Tribes are split by borders drawn by Europeans.
IMHO...

In Turkey. PKK would seriously ramp-up operations to "unite" the state. Response by Turkish Military would most likely include COIN operations and larger scale cross-border operations to take out support bases and create a buffer zone...eg. Israel.

In Iran the reaction might be similar, I am not as familiar with the history of the Kurds in that area.
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Old 05-13-2007, 09:45   #5
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Gentlemen,

As always, I greatly appreciate your comments.

While I am sure there are a great many holes in my theory, you guys exposed the largest: my limited knowledge of the Kurdish situation. Again, I am little more then an undergrad attempting to broaden my horizons outside of my collegiate education. In my suggested solution, I sort of bypassed the Kurdish region as an after thought. Y’all have been very clear that this option is not viable. You have been even clearer that I have to get my reading up. I will be off to do some “outside-the-classroom” studying on the Kurds at the earliest convenience.

Speaking of outside reading, I want to bring up another point (and if this has been discussed here, excuse me because I typing off the top of my head right now) in regards to my original post. I was flipping through the new epilogue in the latest publishing of “Imperial Hubris” and the author repeatedly points out that Muslim violence towards Westerners isn’t born of hate for Democratic freedom, but from Western actions (support of Israel, troops on Arab grounds, etc, etc). I mentioned in my original post that I didn’t feel that democracy could work successfully in a unified Iraq because of the Shia / Sunni division. I think the points in “Imperial Hubris” and what I am saying contradict and I would greatly appreciate any opinion concerning democratic prospects in Iraq.

Furthermore, I want to point out that I am currently reading “Chosen Soldier” and author Couch made a statement (and the exact quote escapes me) but really captured how important spreading democracy is to you Special Forces warriors. With that being said, I hope none of my opinions concerning the democratic solution in Iraq short-sight anything that y’all Gentlemen have worked so hard to protect and promote. Again, I am simply attempting to develop ideas “outside of the box” and, again, broaden my education.

Sorry to take this thread back in a direction more suitable to my education level, but I simply can’t comment on the Kurdish situation without further education. If you want to continue on that topic, please do. I would greatly appreciate the knowledge. And, bare with the length of my posts, it’s just my nature.

Thank you.
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Old 05-13-2007, 12:20   #6
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sounds like clash of the civilizations

What you've written sounds very close to Sammuel P. Huntington's clash of the civilizations.

If you haven't read it, I would suggest you do.
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Old 05-13-2007, 12:33   #7
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Pete
concerning the kurds of turkey and Iran.

If anything this would most likely lead to a massive influx of Kurds to the newly formed Kurdish region. I doubt the Iraninas nor the Turks would have any problem with the Kurds leaving to thier own newly formed state. I also don't see the Iranians nor the Turks forcing the Kurds to stay. If anything this would further strengthen the Kurdish population in the north which as already begun to blossom and support the United States.

I see this as an opportunity to gain a much needed new ally to the coalition of the willing, as well as a stabiliizing force in the region.
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Old 05-13-2007, 13:31   #8
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as far as splitting the shia and the sunni

it won't work. It's amazing how quickly we forget the lessons from the past. National divisions based on ideology never work. I can't think of any case where a division have worked. Let us take U.S. history as an example.

We seem to forget that one of the most brutal civil wars ever fought happened on American soil. Granted there are some differences between the U.S. civil war and the current situation in Iraq, yet there is enough similarity to draw conclusions which are surely applicable to this situation.

Firstly, there has to be a unified government. American tried to function as a buch of independent govenements and states and it didn't last. There was a myriad of reasons for this but it can boiled to to lack of cooperation. No two states can work together (does splitting oil revenues ring a bell here?) without some form of unified governemnt and it cannot be solely economic. Economic cooperation is good but it does not provide the stability necessary for a long standing, peaceful, relationship. Economics is known as the study of scarcity, it is a game of ruthless consumers, and consumption. Beware he who steps in the Lions den. An economic agreemnt would most likely add gasoline to the inferno raging between these two groups. A unified soverign nation would supply a set behaviors and laws which would be understood by both sides. If this were poker, a unified governement would set the rules of the game, because you can't win without knowing how to play your hand.

How do we do this? This is the ten million dollar question. I'm sure I'll catch alot of flak no matter my suggestion so I'll just be frank. Fristly allow all sides to be represented even the bad ones ie. diplomacy. Second draw up a set of rules that they all can agree on, yet doesn't involve ultimatums. One danger in drawing up laws especially religious laws, and most especially islamic law stems from it's absolute nature. One point that must be made clear is there will be no violence, subjugation, or attempted genocide for any reason, religious or otherwise. I understand this is especially difficult given that bigotry and violence is evidently apart of the dogma for these people. Yet we've seen that before in the Protestant Catholic wars in england and to a lesser extent the Protestant trials here in the U.S. So how was it done?

Once they came to the table there was no official endorsement of either side by the newly formed government. This compromise must be made and it will, so long as there is the understanding that no one will leave the negotiating table until a resolution is reached.This leads to the second conclusion, other nations such as Syria, and Iran must be brought in to this proceess. They are already parties to this conflict, moreover they are apart of the religious community. If they can be brought into negotiations, and if they can reach an agreement the smaller factions will undoubtedly follow.

to be continued...
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Old 05-13-2007, 13:31   #9
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i ran out of time

Last edited by jjames83; 05-13-2007 at 13:35.
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Old 05-13-2007, 15:24   #10
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i ran out of time

Again, thanks. I like where you are going and anxiously await how you bring all this together. You got me thinking...
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Old 05-13-2007, 15:35   #11
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Whiskey...your professors have probably already assigned you plenty of reading (probably including the ones I list below), but let me throw out a few titles for you that may help you structure your own thoughts and opinions:

The End of History by Fukuyama
Clash of Civilizations by Huntington
The Pentagon's New Map by Barnett
The Lexus and the Olive Tree by Friedman

These are some of the foundational texts of "post-Cold War" studies. Bear in mind that the world is in a very strange place right now and no one is really quite sure yet what the driving dynamic(s) is, so alot of what you read is going to be contradictory and alot you probably won't agree with. Still, they should help you get your head around some of the broader issues and give you a starting point to reason your own opinions from.
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Old 05-13-2007, 17:02   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jjames83
as far as splitting the shia and the sunni

it won't work. It's amazing how quickly we forget the lessons from the past. National divisions based on ideology never work. I can't think of any case where a division have worked. Let us take U.S. history as an example.

We seem to forget that one of the most brutal civil wars ever fought happened on American soil. Granted there are some differences between the U.S. civil war and the current situation in Iraq, yet there is enough similarity to draw conclusions which are surely applicable to this situation.

Firstly, there has to be a unified government. American tried to function as a buch of independent govenements and states and it didn't last. There was a myriad of reasons for this but it can boiled to to lack of cooperation. No two states can work together (does splitting oil revenues ring a bell here?) without some form of unified governemnt and it cannot be solely economic. Economic cooperation is good but it does not provide the stability necessary for a long standing, peaceful, relationship. Economics is known as the study of scarcity, it is a game of ruthless consumers, and consumption. Beware he who steps in the Lions den. An economic agreemnt would most likely add gasoline to the inferno raging between these two groups. A unified soverign nation would supply a set behaviors and laws which would be understood by both sides. If this were poker, a unified governement would set the rules of the game, because you can't win without knowing how to play your hand.

How do we do this? This is the ten million dollar question. I'm sure I'll catch alot of flak no matter my suggestion so I'll just be frank. Fristly allow all sides to be represented even the bad ones ie. diplomacy. Second draw up a set of rules that they all can agree on, yet doesn't involve ultimatums. One danger in drawing up laws especially religious laws, and most especially islamic law stems from it's absolute nature. One point that must be made clear is there will be no violence, subjugation, or attempted genocide for any reason, religious or otherwise. I understand this is especially difficult given that bigotry and violence is evidently apart of the dogma for these people. Yet we've seen that before in the Protestant Catholic wars in england and to a lesser extent the Protestant trials here in the U.S. So how was it done?

Once they came to the table there was no official endorsement of either side by the newly formed government. This compromise must be made and it will, so long as there is the understanding that no one will leave the negotiating table until a resolution is reached.This leads to the second conclusion, other nations such as Syria, and Iran must be brought in to this proceess. They are already parties to this conflict, moreover they are apart of the religious community. If they can be brought into negotiations, and if they can reach an agreement the smaller factions will undoubtedly follow.

to be continued...
I disagree with your characterizations.

There was nothing wrong with the US before the Federal government usurped the states' rights.

I would also point out that the UK seems to do an excellent job of maintaining a confederation of free and more or less independent states, as do France, Germany, and Swirtzerland, to name a few.

The loose federation could be the way to go in Iraq as well.

The Turks will go crazy if the Kurds get an independent state.

TR
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Old 05-14-2007, 04:37   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jjames83
Pete
concerning the kurds of turkey and Iran.

If anything this would most likely lead to a massive influx of Kurds to the newly formed Kurdish region. I doubt the Iraninas nor the Turks would have any problem with the Kurds leaving to thier own newly formed state. I also don't see the Iranians nor the Turks forcing the Kurds to stay. If anything this would further strengthen the Kurdish population in the north which as already begun to blossom and support the United States.

I see this as an opportunity to gain a much needed new ally to the coalition of the willing, as well as a stabiliizing force in the region.
I disagree with any idea of a migration to a new state. When the fighting started in the Balkans it was based on ethnic lines (and in an American's mind some very ancient history). Bosnia for the Muslims, R.S. for the Orhtodox Serbs..by your theory that would have ended it and everyone would have been fine with the plan. Problem is that the people from one group that live in the area of the other are not going to leave their homes. Secondly, the mere existance of the other clan, group, tribe, ehtnicity, was troubling. Kosovo was a similar instance. Third, once the fighting started the bystanders (Croats) jumped in to see what they could get out of the deal. Why did the Serbs not migrate into what was left of the F.R.Y.? Later on as other areas experienced similar ethnics fights why did Muslims in the region not migrate to Bosnia?
The Turkish government (military) has already made it very clear that there will not be a Kurdish state. There was a time in American history when we would have championed the beginnings of any sort of independence movement (Cyprus for example). The Europeans will not get involved, especially the Germans due to the Turkish immigrant population residing there. Turkey was conveniently used as and continues to be a very comfortable buffer between the more radical Islamic states and the rest of Europe. No EU member wants to pull that stopper out.
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Old 05-14-2007, 11:58   #14
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(continued)
I'm glad the topic of the Balkans wars came up. I was going there next.

Believe it or not the major steps to stabilize Iraq have already taken place. Much like the Serbia/Kosovo war the. The most important of these being the removal of an oppressive dictator (Slobodan/Saddam). An oppressive and abosolute figure who is both ruthless and unremoreseful will cause major problems as long as they remain in power. During the Kosovo war much of the blood shed was halted one Milosovic was arrested. Yet I must conceid that the situation in iraq is extreemly unique. The involvement of many individual cells/groups, each independent in leadership, yet all pulling for supremacy make the Iraq war extremely unique. We've seen this situation before in Somalia with a bunch of independent warlords seeking control over the people and resources.

Our experience in Somalia led to a drastic change in our approach to foreign policy as a nation. It is a large reason we didn't play as large a role in the Serbian conflict as we could have. During both Clinton administrations, foreign policy was handled with a sort of arms length approach. This is largely responsible for the skepticism most individuals have concerning the Iraq War. Most view the war as an impossible catch 22, for which no solution exist.

But there is a way to win this conflict. Although unresolved, the Serbian conflict has stabilized. It has been stabilized by allowing Kosovo to function as it's own sovreignty. Although it has not been recognized as it's own government it has function independently with it's own laws, loose government, and language, thereby making it a de facto sovreignty. This situation is extreemly analagous to the current situation witht he Kurds. I am aware that the forming a separate government could potentially cause problems. But for the Kurds this point is moot. Currently both in Turkey and Iran, the Kurds experience poverty, and subjugation due to government oppression. In both countries a massive Kurdish depopulation has been happening for years. While it is true the Iranians and Kurds don't want the Kurds to have a seperate state, it must be mentioned that they don't want to have to give up any of their land for the Kurds to occupy. If the Kurds were to occupy a piece of land outside Iranian or Turkish borders (the current situation in Iraq) there would be no problem.

Except in Iraq, which is where this conversation comes full circle. While I have outlined how the Shia and the Sunni can be brought to the negotiating table (international involvement and diplomacy (which reports have indicated is bound to happen)) I have yet to mention how these factions will interact with eachother.

The only way we can even begin diplomatic negotiations is to remove the heads of the factions. This is current phase of the iraq war. So long as extreemist are able to get ahold of young impressionable males, brain wash them with half truths, misinterpreted religion, and false promises, we will be unable to unify the rivaling factions in Iraq. Without organization the individuals will begin to seek guidance. This will be provided through rule law, security, and economic stability, because lets face it, your less likely to blow yourself up in a suicide attack when you have a job, security, and a reasonably bright future ahead of you. All these processes are currently happening in Iraq. This is what most people don't realize. Although progress has happened slower than most people would like, the administration has taken to proper steps toward reaching thier goal creating a stable sovreign state.

In the end, we have to remember "Rome wasn't built in a day" and neither will Iraq. By allowing the Kurds their own seperate de facto state whether it be recongnized or not has already gone a long way toward stabilizing Iraq much like it did in Kosovo. Conversly allowing the same for the Shia and Sunni tribes could be detrimental. The approach must be multifaceted, and dynamic. Many things have to happen such a removing faction leaders, brining other countries to the negotiations to promote letitimacy, and establishing a clear cooperative economic system which doesn't depend on solely on oil will go a long way toward reaching a resolution. Then and only then, will we be able to tell if dividing lines can be drawn for these two groups and in what way they can be drawn.
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Old 05-14-2007, 12:06   #15
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jjames83

Profile please.

Edit: Thank you

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