Let's talk about oil as a strategic resource

**Roguish Lawyer** · 06-23-2004, 12:06

Some topics:

1. To what extent are we dependent on oil from the Middle East?

2. If the Saudi government falls and SA goes the way of Iran, can we replace our imports of Saudi oil? How? At what cost?

3. Was the invasion of Iraq calculated to give us a long-term alternative to Saudi Arabia as a supplier of oil? Can it? Will it?

4. What about Venezuela? Mexico?

5. Is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve big enough to do anything for us? Should we be expanding it?

6. Anyone opposed to drilling in the ANWAR?

Or whatever else you want to discuss, of course . . .

06-23-2004, 12:31

Quote:

Originally posted by Roguish Lawyer
Some topics:

1. To what extent are we dependent on oil from the Middle East?

We aren't. Other sources are available.

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2. If the Saudi government falls and SA goes the way of Iran, can we replace our imports of Saudi oil? How? At what cost?

Russia, SE Asia, Venezuala, Canada... there are other sources. Cost? Definitely some.

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3. Was the invasion of Iraq calculated to give us a long-term alternative to Saudi Arabia as a supplier of oil?

No.

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Can it?

Maybe

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Will it?

Maybe

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4. What about Venezuela? Mexico?

My understanding is that Venezuala is one of our largest suppliers currently.

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5. Is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve big enough to do anything for us?

It's enough for a few days of armor warfare.

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Should we be expanding it?

Yes.

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6. Anyone opposed to drilling in the ANWAR?

Not me.

**Airbornelawyer** · 06-23-2004, 12:34

Regarding question #1, who is "we"? Assuming the US, do you mean personally dependent? If so, so far for 2004, our top 10 sources of petroleum are:

Canada - 2.117 million barrels per day
Mexico - 1.6 million barrels per day
Venezuela - 1.543 million barrels per day
Saudi Arabia - 1.458 million barrels per day
Nigeria - 1.148 million barrels per day
Iraq - 614 thousand barrels per day
Algeria - 407 thousand barrels per day
United Kingdom - 343 thousand barrels per day
Angola - 300 thousand barrels per day
Norway - 260 thousand barrels per day

Of course, we are part of a global economy, so our dependence is tied to Europe and Asia's dependence as well.

And, of course, given the power of the cartel and the relative ease of extraction in certain Persian Gulf countries, the Arab-dominated OPEC has a great deal of power over the world market price of oil, even when the actual oil doesn't come from the region.

**Roguish Lawyer** · 06-23-2004, 12:36

Is oil a strategic problem for the US? If so, how?

**Airbornelawyer** · 06-23-2004, 12:36

I also echo all of GH's replies, except to note that the impact of the fall of Saudi Arabia wouldn't be on our actual sources of oil, but on the Kingdom's ability to set the world market price.

**Roguish Lawyer** · 06-23-2004, 12:37

Is supply from Venezuela stable and reliable?

**Roguish Lawyer** · 06-23-2004, 12:39

Quote:

Originally posted by Airbornelawyer
Regarding question #1, who is "we"?

You lawyers . . .

**Jack Moroney (RIP)** · 06-23-2004, 13:58

Quote:

Originally posted by Roguish Lawyer
Is oil a strategic problem for the US? If so, how?

We have an oil based economy, it is a strategic requirement and fits into the area of a vital national interest. That means we will commit troops to protect/secure it. Saudi supply is but one of the problems. You really have to look at this on a world wide scale not only from the standpoint of production but reserve, demands, and supply. One critical area for oil flow is the Straits of Malacca thru which a great deal of the worlds shipping and a lot of SWA oil flows and is subjected to piracy. These routes also pass by the Spratley Islands which not only have oil but are contested by, if my memory serves me, Vietnam, China, Brunai, Phillipeans, Malaysia to name the principles. China is now sucking down a great deal of oil and is looking for other sources and from what I seem to recall , are trying to get a pipeline up and running to draw oil from the area of the Caspian Sea. They are now, as are the other emerging industrializing countries, serious competitors with us for oil. You can also draw similar senarios for other parts of globe but I am sure no one is interesting in following the ramblings of an aging warrior who is just pulling this off the top of his head. I realize that this is a gross oversimplification, but IMHO, the long and the short of it is that oil is a strategic requirement and only becomes a strategic problem if we let it become so.

Jack Moroney-heat with oil but also have two wood stoves and several cords of wood in strategic reserve

**Roguish Lawyer** · 06-23-2004, 14:00

GH and AL:

Are you guys suggesting we don't need to worry about oil?

06-23-2004, 18:01

Quote:

Originally posted by Roguish Lawyer
GH and AL:

Are you guys suggesting we don't need to worry about oil?

If I thought we didn't have to worry about it, I wouldn't favor expanding the reserve, now would I?

Just don't see Saudi Arabia as as significant a player as they were during the Carter administration. Their significance is declining, no rising.

**Roguish Lawyer** · 06-24-2004, 09:49

Maybe we need a new rule: AL and GH can't post until the rest of the class gets a chance to answer the question? LOL

Are we really done with this topic?

NDD: What is the risk that our supply of Venezuelan oil will be cut off?

Radar Rider · 06-25-2004, 01:49

And the reality is...

We concern ourselves with the middle east so that we can drain ALL of their oil. Once that's gone, they have NO leverage and can go back to killing each other and trying to survive (which, quite frankly, I don't give a shit about). After that, we'll be supplied by the rest of the world. When that runs out, we'll finally tap into ANWAR (a natural strategic reserve, if you will). Once all of the dead dinosaurs (oil) are used up, we'll move on to other sources of energy/vehicle power. All of this might sound a bit callous, BUT, you can do that when you are the Superpower on the planet.

**Bill Harsey** · 06-25-2004, 07:45

Ok, new question- How dependant is Saudi Arabia on the United States market to buy their oil? I realize China is changing this equation as we speak.

QRQ 30 · 06-25-2004, 07:56

Say what we want, but resources are limited on this planet -- period. Sooner or later we will run out. We could have done things 40-50- years ago to slow things down but "Nuclear Paranoia" was rampant. Nuclear power would have done a lot to slow the loss of resources. Forget about gasoline and other fuel. The vast majority of our world is dependent on plastics, synthetics or whatever you call them. They are made from oil.

**Bill Harsey** · 06-25-2004, 08:20

Quote:

Originally posted by QRQ 30
Say what we want, but resources are limited on this planet -- period. Sooner or later we will run out. We could have done things 40-50- years ago to slow things down but "Nuclear Paranoia" was rampant. Nuclear power would have done a lot to slow the loss of resources. Forget about gasoline and other fuel. The vast majority of our world is dependent on plastics, synthetics or whatever you call them. They are made from oil.

For this reason, over the years, I've dedicated a number of tools in the shop to being able to make knives using no eletricity or purchased fuels. I can forge very well with Doug Fir bark, even weld steel in that fire. My 100 lb. treadle hammer is human powered so I have fantastic force available for forming steel. I can hot cut steel in the forge using no torch at all. I've forged steel to a cutting edge with no grinding or filing. It's not pretty but it can be done. All work would have to be done during daylight hours but at least the wall for the forge area rolls back for total daylight and fresh air. Not a survivalist, just prepared.