Go Back   Professional Soldiers ® > UWOA > Insurgencies & Guerrilla Warfare

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-12-2004, 08:46   #16
Weazle23
Guerrilla
 
Weazle23's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Southern Puget Sound
Posts: 302
Any speculations on the breakdown of the insurgants in regards to nationality? If the majority are not Iraqi, could this be a factor to be exploited in the average Iraqi citizen's attitude towards helping or not helping? Or does the idea of establishing their own Iraq play second fiddle to the Greater Islamic Cause of being anti-Western?
__________________
War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse.
--John Stewart Mill--
Weazle23 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2004, 09:27   #17
Roguish Lawyer
Consigliere
 
Roguish Lawyer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Free Pineland (at last)
Posts: 8,765
Magician:

Thank you! That was exactly what I was hoping for.

GH:

Any book suggestions?
Roguish Lawyer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2004, 10:09   #18
Guy
Quiet Professional
 
Guy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: OCONUS...again
Posts: 4,702
The different factions and their history are going to make it difficult to set up, security and stability.

If the elections go ahead as planned. I would place my money on the "interim prime minister" Allawi.

1. He’s a Shiite. (Largest of all-the the factions).
2. Although he is secular, he reportedly has the support of the country's top Shiite cleric (Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani).
3. He just married a prominent Kurdish woman. Which reminded me of Kerry/Heinz…lmao!

The Sunnis are in some serious trouble, which makes them “ripe” for foreign influence by these so-called insurgents or terrorists. If you think for a second the Shiites and Kurds will not try, to quell the Sunnis as they position themselves for some political power, after being knocked around for 20-plus years?

Think about the “KISS” principle…”Paybacks a bitch”!
__________________
“It is better to have sheep led by a lion than lions led by a sheep.”

-DE OPPRESSO LIBER-
Guy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2004, 10:20   #19
The Reaper
Quiet Professional
 
The Reaper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Free Pineland
Posts: 24,779
Too bad that the Sunnis do not appear to have a central leader who could be brought in and have things explained to him that he can play nicely, and have a piece of the pie, or continue down this path, and see what the Kurds and Shias have for him after we step out and they take over.

Do they think that they will continue to dominate Iraq over the Kurds and Shia after we leave?

TR
__________________
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." - President Theodore Roosevelt, 1910

De Oppresso Liber 01/20/2025
The Reaper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2004, 10:23   #20
Roguish Lawyer
Consigliere
 
Roguish Lawyer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Free Pineland (at last)
Posts: 8,765
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Reaper
Too bad that the Sunnis do not appear to have a central leader who could be brought in and have things explained to him that he can play nicely, and have a piece of the pie, or continue down this path, and see what the Kurds and Shias have for him after we step out and they take over.

Do they think that they will continue to dominate Iraq over the Kurds and Shia after we leave?

TR
I think this guy may be available . . .

Attached Images
File Type: jpg saddam.jpg (2.6 KB, 6 views)
Roguish Lawyer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2004, 10:27   #21
The Reaper
Quiet Professional
 
The Reaper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Free Pineland
Posts: 24,779
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roguish Lawyer
I think this guy may be available . . .

I heard that he already has a previous engagement with the hangman.

TR
__________________
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." - President Theodore Roosevelt, 1910

De Oppresso Liber 01/20/2025
The Reaper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2004, 11:21   #22
Guy
Quiet Professional
 
Guy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: OCONUS...again
Posts: 4,702
Lightbulb Imho....

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Reaper
Too bad that the Sunnis do not appear to have a central leader who could be brought in and have things explained to him that he can play nicely, and have a piece of the pie, or continue down this path, and see what the Kurds and Shias have for him after we step out and they take over.

Do they think that they will continue to dominate Iraq over the Kurds and Shia after we leave?

TR
I’ve been keeping a close eye on the combat operations to secure Fullujah. I thought it was funny that we are pushing those (Sunnis) into Shiite held territory to the South.

The security and stability within the Kurdish held area is solid. Plus they control the oil fields in the north. The Shiites control those to the South.

The Sunnis control nothing of economic value when it comes to territory. You would think they would come to the bargaining table however…

That’s what makes them ripe for exploitation from radical Islamic or terrorist groups!
__________________
“It is better to have sheep led by a lion than lions led by a sheep.”

-DE OPPRESSO LIBER-
Guy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2004, 20:21   #23
NousDefionsDoc
Quiet Professional
 
NousDefionsDoc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: LA
Posts: 1,653
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenhat
I suggest a little research into the success of the anti-Communist operations in Thailand in the 70s and early 80s, especially the establishment of economic situations that created incentives for the population to not tolerate the insurgents.
Gotta love the work, because its never done, is it?

NARATHIWAT TARGETED
The Nation
13 November 2004
Don Pathan

At least 16 hurt in three separate blasts, defence weapons stolen in raids on villages

On the worst day for the deep South since the deadly Tak Bai events, three explosions injured at least 16 people, militants stole an arms cache from security volunteers and a martial arts teacher was shot dead in broad daylight.

Most of the attacks were here in Narathiwat province.

A powerful bomb exploded at about 6pm at the Angmor Restaurant owned by a Chinese-Thai in Narathiwat's Muang (city) district, damaging the front of the restaurant and shattering glass as far as 30 metres across the street. At least 16 people were seriously injured.

Police said a person posing as a customer left an explosives-filled bag behind a refrigerator in the restaurant and detonated it via mobile phone after leaving. The restaurant is a favourite with ethnic Thais and Chinese in the province.

An hour later, another bomb went off at the Surin motorbike shop in Tak Bai, the district where the deadly October 25 crackdown on Muslim protesters occurred. There were no reports of casualties.

Another bomb went off at a military checkpoint at 8pm in the province's Bacho district but no one was injured.

Assailants attacked villages in Narathiwat's Chanae, Bacho, Sukhirin and Rangae districts, stealing at least nine shotguns from village defence volunteers. A villager and two soldiers were injured during attacks in Chanae district.

A military vehicle was attacked in Rangae district and the attackers placed spikes on main roads to thwart any pursuers, causing flat tires to at least 20 vehicles on the road connecting Bacho and Narathiwat town.

Experts managed to defuse a bomb found near the fence of Ban Yi-ngor School in Yi-ngor district, next to the residential quarters of the local police station.

A Buddhist couple narrowly escaped a shooting in the evening in Joh I Rong district. Dee Suksabai, 67, and his wife Borseang Suksabai, 51, were uninjured, an eyewitness said.

Yesterday's violence in Narathiwat was most likely the biggest coordinated attack after the uprising on April 28, when 106 Islamic militants were killed after a pre-dawn assault against security posts in Pattani, Yala and Songkhla.

While violence continued unabated, Narathiwat governor Pracha Terat offered to send two security officials to each family in the province who requested protection.

The chief of Rusoh district, Thanawat Buranapipop, said the district would ask for security officials to guard villagers when they went rubber tapping and urged villagers to go in groups for safety.

In the adjacent province of Pattani, an unidentified assailant on a motorcycle threw a Molotov ____tail into a Muslim restaurant in Muang district, slightly damaging the shop but causing no injuries.

Pirom Chumchuan, 37, the restaurant's owner, said he received a warning the shop would be bombed if he continued to sell food during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, when the faithful are expected to fast during daylight hours. However, he ignored the warning.

In a separate incident, Hiran Khongchareon, 45, a Buddhist martial-arts teacher, died after being shot in the head while riding a motorcycle in Pattani's Yarang district.

Meanwhile, Pattani governor Chertphan Na Songkhla yesterday instructed district officials to urge village defence volunteers to keep their government-issued shotguns after 26 guns were returned to the Pattani authorities.

Village defence volunteers feared possession of government weapons could make them targets for militants.

Don Pathan

The Nation

NARATHIWAT
__________________
Somewhere a True Believer is training to kill you. He is training with minimal food or water, in austere conditions, training day and night. The only thing clean on him is his weapon and he made his web gear. He doesn't worry about what workout to do - his ruck weighs what it weighs, his runs end when the enemy stops chasing him. This True Believer is not concerned about 'how hard it is;' he knows either he wins or dies. He doesn't go home at 17:00, he is home.
He knows only The Cause.

Still want to quit?
NousDefionsDoc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2004, 22:32   #24
magician
Quiet Professional
 
magician's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Bangkok
Posts: 856
the successful Thai campaign against the Communist Party of Thailand is an example of Hidden History, as it is not well-known, even among specialists of the subject, and very little has ever been published about it.

I am fortunate to work for a man who spent some 17 years in ISOC, Thai intelligence, who has shared many insights with me.

I would love to write about it...but just learning Thai is a long-term proposition, much less actually doing research in that language.

It is a truism of counterinsurgency doctrine that successful strategies depend on overarching contexts incorporating economic and political reforms. Oftentimes, there are racial components, and interestingly, a religious dimension.

The religious dimension is one that characterizes ancient counterinsurgencies, and very recent counterinsurgencies. The core of revolution studies, which is primarily the study of revolutionary Marxism in the 20th Century, is fairly mute on the religious aspects of those revolutions and their antitheses. Even accounts of the longrunning campaign against the Moro in the PI only mention the Islamic element of that conflict in passing.

But I think that a larger criticism that can be made is that professional counterinsurgents end up giving lip service to the concept of the context. They all agree that social reforms, economic reforms, political reforms, are all necessary. But they often end up saying just that, and then moving on to the sexier tidbits which they somehow find more fascinating.

In the case of Iraq, there is an undeniable religious aspect to the conflict. It is far more than just another Crusade. If we are smart, we will foment Sunni vs Shia disputes, which are historical and virulent, and exploit them to weaken our enemies until we can get allied Iraqi forces up off their knees. And we will recognize, sooner rather than later, that the context is the real war, in Iraq. Killing bad guys just addresses the symptom. It does not address the underlying syndrome.
magician is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2004, 23:06   #25
The Reaper
Quiet Professional
 
The Reaper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Free Pineland
Posts: 24,779
Quote:
Originally Posted by magician
If we are smart, we will foment Sunni vs Shia disputes, which are historical and virulent, and exploit them to weaken our enemies until we can get allied Iraqi forces up off their knees. And we will recognize, sooner rather than later, that the context is the real war, in Iraq. Killing bad guys just addresses the symptom. It does not address the underlying syndrome.
Exactly.

And maybe turn the Kurds loose on them as well.

TR
__________________
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." - President Theodore Roosevelt, 1910

De Oppresso Liber 01/20/2025
The Reaper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2004, 03:06   #26
brownapple
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roguish Lawyer
GH:

Any book suggestions?
Not unless you read Thai.

Decent article, but not detailed http://www.onwar.com/aced/data/tango/thailand1959.htm

I have no idea if this book http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/AS...943758-6390224 is accurate or not.

This speech by General Prem is useful: http://www.generalprem.com/Speech4.html

A few months ago, the SFA Chapter here in Thailand had a excursion to the last of the basecamps of the Communist Party of Thailand along with a few senior Royal Thai Army Special Forces Officers. Magician and I were among the folks who went, and it was a very enlightening tour.

Last edited by brownapple; 11-13-2004 at 03:13.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2004, 05:10   #27
Guy
Quiet Professional
 
Guy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: OCONUS...again
Posts: 4,702
Thumbs up Well said...

Quote:
Originally Posted by magician
In the case of Iraq, there is an undeniable religious aspect to the conflict. It is far more than just another Crusade. If we are smart, we will foment Sunni vs Shia disputes, which are historical and virulent, and exploit them to weaken our enemies until we can get allied Iraqi forces up off their knees. And we will recognize, sooner rather than later, that the context is the real war, in Iraq. Killing bad guys just addresses the symptom. It does not address the underlying syndrome.
Especially from a strategic point of view.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Reaper
And maybe turn the Kurds loose on them as well.
Now that is a tactical point of view. If the two factions of Kurds settle their differences. Iraq will divide into two maybe three different sections, states or areas. Even though they (Iraq) may have a central "interim" government with elections on the horizon.

The Kurds are not, going to give up their "cultural and ethnic identity."
__________________
“It is better to have sheep led by a lion than lions led by a sheep.”

-DE OPPRESSO LIBER-
Guy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2004, 05:23   #28
Guy
Quiet Professional
 
Guy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: OCONUS...again
Posts: 4,702
Lightbulb Interesting...

SUNNIS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Last column: % Sunnis of the population
Algeria 32,800,000 99%
Bahrain 150,000 22%
Egypt 64,600,000 90%
Iran 7,000,000 10%
Iraq 9,200,000 37%
Israel 950,000 16%
Jordan 5,400,000 80%
Kuwait 1,300,000 60%
Lebanon 750,000 20%
Libya 5,100,000 96%
Mauritania 2,900,000 100%
Morocco 32,900,000 99.7%
Oman 380,000 14%
Palestine 2,900,000 83%
Qatar 620,000 76%
Saudi Arabia 20,000,000 82%
Spanish North Africa 35,000 27%
Sudan 26,000,000 70%
Syria 12,600,000 72%
Tunisia 9,970,000 99.7%
Turkey 66,800,000 99.7%
United Arab Emirates 1,400,000 45%
Western Sahara 800,000 100%
Yemen 5,250,000 27%
Total *) 309,800,000 72%
*) Calculated for the total population of North Africa and the Middle East, approx. 430,000,000.

The majority of Kurds are Sunnis. Now watch AL come along with something to confuse the hell out of me.
__________________
“It is better to have sheep led by a lion than lions led by a sheep.”

-DE OPPRESSO LIBER-
Guy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2004, 10:24   #29
Roguish Lawyer
Consigliere
 
Roguish Lawyer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Free Pineland (at last)
Posts: 8,765
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenhat
Not unless you read Thai.

Decent article, but not detailed http://www.onwar.com/aced/data/tango/thailand1959.htm

I have no idea if this book http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/AS...943758-6390224 is accurate or not.

This speech by General Prem is useful: http://www.generalprem.com/Speech4.html

A few months ago, the SFA Chapter here in Thailand had a excursion to the last of the basecamps of the Communist Party of Thailand along with a few senior Royal Thai Army Special Forces Officers. Magician and I were among the folks who went, and it was a very enlightening tour.
Thanks.
Roguish Lawyer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2004, 02:47   #30
magician
Quiet Professional
 
magician's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Bangkok
Posts: 856
Possible Outlines of an Iraqi Nightmare.

We have to be cautious where the Kurds are concerned, I believe, as using them as convenient proxies will not best serve their long term interests. They do make pretty damned good guards in the meantime, and it can be very useful to have a Kurdish protection detail in your hip pocket, as they intimidate the hell out of the Shia and Sunni, and particularly the Sunni. Memories are long in Iraq.

But we have to be cautious about unleashing the Kurds, as it is in no one's best interest to let the Kurdish genie out of the bottle. A scenario where Kurds engage in wholesale retribution against Sunni remnants would quickly turn nightmarish.

Maybe it would be a good idea, at this point, to extrapolate a worst-case end state for Iraq.

Perhaps some form of partition along ethnic and religious lines is inevitable, with a central state too weak to enforce greater political integrity. If that is so, then we need to start planning for relationships with a Shia state in the South, and its likely alignment with elements in Iran.

One apparent tenet of US regional policy is that significant strata in Iran desire closer ties to the West, for both social and economic reasons. There is some belief among US analysts that the reign of the Imams will not endure. Whether this is true or not is a question for future history to decide. In the meantime, we had best get serious about border security and border interdiction, and dust off our target folders. Not so we can hit Iranian targets. So Iraqi proxies, or even Israeli forces, can do it for us. If we are not prepared to take off the gloves where Iran is concerned, then we need to ask ourselves whether a Southern Iraq which is for all intents and purposes annexed by Iran is unacceptable to our greater goals in the region. Particularly if Iran continues along its current nuclear path.

We already have longstanding ties to the Kurds in the North. In fact, US SF were there long before the invasion, and have been there since the last Gulf war. We do need to keep our finger on the pulse of the ultimate Kurdish desire for a homeland, a de facto Greater Kurdistan, as concrete Kurdish steps towards this goal could bring US forces into open conflict with Syrian forces, and could complicate relations with Turkey, a NATO ally.

In fact, Turkey has a lot to gain, and a lot to lose, with its bid to join the EC at stake. It would be best, in the long run, to continue nudging Turkey in this direction, and to seek to incorporate Turkey into the broader family of European nations. The last thing that anyone needs is a Turkey more beset with internal contradictions, or worse, a Turkey which feels compelled to intervene in Northern Iraq against Kurdish elements more or less aligned with the US.

While it is possible that conflict with Syria is a foregone inevitability, at least in broader regional terms, it would be better for the US if we engage Syria in a quiet war for those reasons, because of their perennial support for Hezbollah and Hamas, because of their emnity towards Israel, than because we are precipitously forced to support Kurdish allies who we need to buttress an artificial Pax Americana in post-Saddam Iraq.

It is tempting to conclude that the Iraqi Sunni, the inevitable losers in the emerging Iraqi state, regardless of how you slice and dice it, may end up like the Palestinians: subjected to a disaspora, remnants encircled and embattled, in conflict with diminishing coalition forces, Kurd and Shia alike, dependent on the largess of Sunni populations in other countries, which Guy's data suggests could be considerable.

I do not know anyone who thinks that Allawi can endure in power after elections, as he is widely viewed as a creature of the Americans. This is unfortunate, but Iraq is, after all, for Iraqis to ultimately save or demolish.

Personally, I do not consider a Sunni boycott of the elections to be a problem. If they do not want to participate, fine. They can marginalize themselves, and watch from refugee camps as Shia and Kurds bicker over their land, their homes, and their businesses. It is, in the end analysis, their choice.

I do not think that Shia and Kurds will long tolerate Sunni insurgent misbehavior, if the forthcoming elections feature majority Shia and Kurdish participation, and consequent majority Shia and Kurd domination of a new constituent assembly. It will be interesting to see what sort of constitution emerges from a provisional government comprised primarily of Kurds and Shia. It will be even more interesting to see if such a constitution has any relevance to actual events on the ground.

It is clear to me that the Sunni are the past, in Iraq. It would be in their best interest to make the best deal that they can make now, before Shia and Kurd are invested in a new Iraq, as a result of popular elections--and assuming that Iraq, as a contiguous political entity, even endures after the Shia and the Kurds divide the country between themselves.

The Sunni need to snuggle up to the UN, as no one else is going to champion their cause. If the UN, as seems the case at this time, declines to midwife a new Iraqi state, it will only consolidate its increasing irrelevance. The UN has accomplished nothing, really, for the Palestinians. The UN cannot stop genocide in Africa. The UN cannot even quench the inferno in Haiti.

What is more of a threat for American aims in Iraq, I think, is the possibility of Shia on Kurd violence, as the Kurds are very rich, in comparison to the Shia, and Northern Iraq is much richer than Southern Iraq. If the Kurds simply isolate themselves, it would not surprise me to see Shia fighters migrating North. And Iranian support for this would certainly broaden the ambit of warfare in the region.

The best that we could hope for in this worst-case scenario is a relatively stable Balkanization of Iraq, with a relatively reliable Kurdish ally in the North, a nervous, watchful Shia South with Iranian sponsors, and a central region increasingly devastated by warfare, with its primarily Sunni population moving to other countries, and subject to legendary discrimination and payback for decades of repression under Saddam.

If you think that a lot of Islamic insurgents came out of Afghanistan, watch what happens with military age males from the Sunni Triangle in Iraq. Not only will they cut their teeth against the armed forces of the sole global superpower, they will be able to draw on support from significant Sunni populations elsewhere in the region.

We will be lucky if they focus their immediate ire on Shia and Kurdish usurpers.

Last edited by magician; 11-15-2004 at 02:59.
magician is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump



All times are GMT -6. The time now is 14:25.



Copyright 2004-2022 by Professional Soldiers ®
Site Designed, Maintained, & Hosted by Hilliker Technologies