Team Selection, Scenario One

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by TOMAHAWK9521

I remember traveling around NZ back in '05 and the radio programs would air emergency preparedness reminders almost every hour for homeowners and families to keep their disaster kits ready and up to date in case of the wide range of natural disasters that NZ is subject to.

That would be about the time they started running preparedness communication in print/radio/tv.

It's one of the government spending programs on mass media that I actually support....unlike say the "Don't get drunk and cook so you accidentally burn your house down" campaign.

I think the program helped a good bit during the quakes, but there were still(and always will be) muppets who think it will never happen and/or assume someone will fix their problems.

Personally, in such tough economic times I'd like to see government communications targeting all these popular food/cooking shows and ask them if they'd help suggest people stock bigger pantries of long shelf live items that can actually SAVE money by simply stocking up when the appropriate items are on sale.

Save money while also preparing a little bit.....win/win.

[Flagg]

A wee bit slightly off topic......but the team you select needs to communicate:

This is what we've been fiddling with down here that I mentioned in an earlier post about our local loss of cell phone infrastructure when the cell towers lost mains power and battery back up.

User base density and the extenders would be critical.....without extenders and user density I'd think it's usefulness would be next to zero.

Synopsis:

http://www.servalproject.org/

Greater detail:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u30KA7fk3v0

I'm not affiliated with the project other than as a volunteer test user.

[tonyz]

Originally Posted by badshot

I have found this very helpful especially since not being in a remote area permanently anymore - Never even thought about prisoners

When I previously thought of prisoners...I thought about them in the context of our criminal politicians that will prolly get us into this kind of mess - and how to deal with them...but the guillotine...hmmm, now everything is in perspective.

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by Flagg

A wee bit slightly off topic......but the team you select needs to communicate:

User base density and the extenders would be critical.....without extenders and user density I'd think it's usefulness would be next to zero.

Yep, the range of wifi is just too short. In a poor urban environment with high installation density I could see its potential utility--cut the cord to the cellcos. They'd lose banking, of course, which is a huge part of third-world cell usage. But in a disaster setting where would they be charging their phones? As the phones went down from power loss even the guys clever enough to keep theirs charged would be cut off as mesh density dropped below threshold.

[mugwump]

Here's a moral quandary for consideration: The grid has just gone down. From the lack of any federal comms and what you can glean from local hams it looks to be nation-wide. Traffic on the state road has dropped to a trickle. A truck full of Useful Stuff drives into town. Driver says it's headed for the hospital in the small city 80 miles to the west. What do you do? If you let it go it's unlikely to make it to its destination. If you commandeer it, people will die. Keep it? Tax it? Escort it? Let it go?

[tonyz]

Originally Posted by mugwump

Here's a moral quandary for consideration: The grid has just gone down. From the lack of any federal comms and what you can glean from local hams it looks to be nation-wide. Traffic on the state road has dropped to a trickle. A truck full of Useful Stuff drives into town. Driver says it's headed for the hospital in the small city 80 miles to the west. What do you do? If you let it go it's unlikely to make it to its destination. If you commandeer it, people will die. Keep it? Tax it? Escort it? Let it go?

People down the road in that small city may be depending on that shipment.

What does the driver want to do? If he want's to take the risk to complete the job (his mission) who are we to commandeer someone else's property?

Grid just down...to soon to be predicting when things get back. Tough times make for some tough decisions but based on your scenario it is IMO too soon to go pirate.

I realize others will have different ideas. Tweak the facts and many different discussions and reasonable outcomes are possible.

So, I revise my list of critical skills from...trades, farmers, medical professionals, security, etc., etc., to include leadership. Leaders with good judgement may be in short supply in the short term as well other critical needs.

Great hypothetical and thread to flesh out difficult considerations.

[badshot]

Originally Posted by mugwump

Here's a moral quandary for consideration: The grid has just gone down. From the lack of any federal comms and what you can glean from local hams it looks to be nation-wide. Traffic on the state road has dropped to a trickle. A truck full of Useful Stuff drives into town. Driver says it's headed for the hospital in the small city 80 miles to the west. What do you do? If you let it go it's unlikely to make it to its destination. If you commandeer it, people will die. Keep it? Tax it? Escort it? Let it go?

I'd say try and make a deal with the guy first - maybe offer to take some in a smaller transport when it's safer and possibly find some additional Team members and/or other assets in the town.

If the trip is just plain suicide under any circumstance, explain it to the driver and take him into the team if he so desires. Try and get him to willingly hand over the truck, otherwise take the truck.

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by mugwump

Yep, the range of wifi is just too short. In a poor urban environment with high installation density I could see its potential utility--cut the cord to the cellcos. They'd lose banking, of course, which is a huge part of third-world cell usage. But in a disaster setting where would they be charging their phones? As the phones went down from power loss even the guys clever enough to keep theirs charged would be cut off as mesh density dropped below threshold.

Personally, I have a bunch of options for charging mobile phones/etc. via solar, hand crank, 12v.

But you make a good point as exemplified during Hurricane Sandy with the photos of everyone trying to charge their phones to the few genie powered charging stations.

Maybe such a package that included range extenders would need volume recharge capability for mobile devices.

What's funny is how even in rural, non electrified Afghanistan, everyone is still able to charge their Roshan phones(mostly from home solar panel and 12v battery/inverter).

I guess I'm thinking of it from a modernised version 2.0 of Civil Defense. Something along the lines of Community Engagement(Defense is just too aggressive for some).

Instead of bomb shelters and tinned food/water, maybe it's the local resident police officer with mesh coms network in a box with a clone-able app with some range extenders/volume rechargers/flexible solar panels in a large Pelican case?

But yeah…..density(urban to suburban) and ability to recharge would be key issues….as well as very unhappy mobile phone networks trying to kill the free piggybacking.

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by mugwump

Here's a moral quandary for consideration: The grid has just gone down. From the lack of any federal comms and what you can glean from local hams it looks to be nation-wide. Traffic on the state road has dropped to a trickle. A truck full of Useful Stuff drives into town. Driver says it's headed for the hospital in the small city 80 miles to the west. What do you do? If you let it go it's unlikely to make it to its destination. If you commandeer it, people will die. Keep it? Tax it? Escort it? Let it go?

Keep driver contained from community and positively shape his perceptions

Quickly inventory vehicle with permission

Develop escort plan, actions on, prioritised opportunity list, and cost/benefit

Take a calculated risk if deemed worthwhile…..

Heavy escort, assuming fuel is available

Attempt coms with hospital/authority while en route thru HAM network

If coms established begin negotiating in good faith based on known inventory

If coms not established send recce element forward to negotiate in good faith once a harbour position is established outside of destination as well as information requirements on community.

Marry up procedure.

Take fair and reasonable cut that incorporates a goodwill investment in ongoing relationship with hospital/community to be leveraged in the future.

If not dead yet, we have initiated a positive relationship with a distant community while taking some for ourselves, we have conducted short but comprehensive information collection on the community, conducted a route recce on MSRs between FOB Honey Badger and city, identified potential low risk, high reward scrounging opportunities en route as well as problem areas, and kept FOB Honey Badger's poker hand close to the vest.

I'm sure there's stuff I missed.

[The Reaper]

Good scenario.

COA 1 - Keep the truck and all its contents, with driver consent.

COA 2 - Keep the truck and all its contents, without driver consent.

COA 3 - Send the driver on his way, with all of his cargo, and no escort.

COA 4 - Send the driver on his way, with all of his cargo, and an escort.

COA 5 - Send the driver on his way, with some of his cargo, and no escort.

COA 6 - Send the driver on his way, with some of his cargo, and an escort.



I would lean toward COA 6, if the following questions could be answered.


80 miles by road in a grid down scenario could be a suicide mission, even with an escort.

Are there multiple routes from your location to the hospital?

What are the odds of making it?

Can the hospital meet the truck part of the way there to escort it?

How many people can you risk for the possible payoff?

How many vehicles and armed men do we have to draw upon?

What is our fuel state?

Do we have any aircraft or ISR assets available?

How badly do you need the contents of the truck?

Can we effectively use the contents?

TR

[tonyz]

In an early grid down scenario remember that the road runs both ways and we may be expecting something from that small city, ourselves.

This truck of supplies is also an opportunity to potentially make useful allies and gather intelligence.

Valid communication with the subject city may shape this opportunity.

Great considerations TR.

[badshot]

Originally Posted by tonyz

gather intelligence.

From the driver as well.

Originally Posted by tonyz

Great considerations TR.

Much wiser order...

when far out in the back country we have a saying...if there is 10 percent (some say 20) doubt, don't do it unless there's no other option.

[TOMAHAWK9521]

Originally Posted by Flagg

"Don't get drunk and cook so you accidentally burn your house down" campaign.

Holy crap! I completely forgot about that PSA. I thought that had to be the funniest public awareness message I'd ever heard.

[FlagDayNCO]

Good point of discussion. Something that has been happening for years is the limiting of band width during high traffic scenarios. CellCo usually has a fix, but they have to be involved.

Example One is a major snowfall in recent years, catching many still at work. We all knew snow was inbound, but the weather fronts changed course and the snow came down like no one had ever believed. Roads were clogged for hours, snow plows couldn't get in, gas station ran out of fuel, etc. Through all of this, everyone was on their cellular device trying to call. The network couldn't handle the traffic.

We knew that SMS text messaging would be the best option, so we started texting message traffic.

Example Two is Sandy. My work truck has mobile SATCOM for scenarios where the cellular system couldn't handle our traffic. Well... The cellular system went down in patches, as power went out. The other side of the coin was CellCo prioritized business and government traffic.

Now, many State Police vehicles have mobile repeaters in them, so they could operate if their land based system went down. Problem they ran into was they still had limited range.

Compounding everybody was the amount of traffic flooding the various systems.

Mobile SATCOM? Was only as good as the people on the system. I wound up talking to no one the first day. Just like a battle scene, there was so much interference the SATCOM didn't work.

Now, Feds had their FEMA trucks with insane comms equipment. Some didn't work and some wasn't monitored. Craziest thing was they had a Million Dollar SUV with all types of equipment in it, but had to pay cash going through tolls, after waiting in traffic for hours. No one ever thought about EZPass.

I think HAM is still the best option, especially organizing into networks for local and regional comms. Expect interference/ jamming if Gubmint decides it is not in their interest.

[badshot]

Originally Posted by FlagDayNCO

Expect interference/ jamming if Gubmint decides it is not in their interest.

Even if they don't - old fashioned alternatives should be in the plan as backups


ps. this concrete stuff sucks