Wuhan Coronavirus

[Last hard class]

I'm not arguing with the numbers. But I don't see where you guys have considered all the social fricking distancing and such when you do your comparisons. In other words, do you believe the infections would be the same if we were not social distancing? Nobody used to give a spit if there was a bad flu season. Take some robitussin and its off to work, vacation ect... .



LHC

[tom kelly]

The China virus is getting hype from MSM...The Daily Death Toll from Covid-19 is pick a number whose total includes deaths from heart disease, cancer, diabetes, How if any autopsies are used to prove cause of death? Why are the Covid 19 reported deaths so high? is there an economic benefit to hospitals to put Covid 19 on death certificates ? Did anyone die from the seasonal flu ? November 4th this Sars-COV-2 virus will be out of the 24 hour news cycle. It may even disappear. Wait & See.

[Ret10Echo]

Originally Posted by Last hard class

I'm not arguing with the numbers. But I don't see where you guys have considered all the social fricking distancing and such when you do your comparisons. In other words, do you believe the infections would be the same if we were not social distancing? Nobody used to give a spit if there was a bad flu season. Take some robitussin and its off to work, vacation ect... .



LHC

I am not a medical professional....nor am I a statistical analyst...

My take here is that the social distancing and "wear a mask" is akin to "Stranger Danger" for children.

Family units are infected en-mass due to one member being exposed.

All "positive" numbers do not equal hospitalization. Hell, they don't even mean you have any symptoms

So imagine a normal flu season where mass numbers of people are subjected to a PSYOP campaign and have themselves tested out of fear and panic because some pet dander in their house made them sneeze.

How many people with the flu or common cold would be POSITIVE in this scenario?

On a bad flu season, I'd say the technical term is "one metric ass-load"... but it's a "normal" season so nobody give a rats' ass.

The current state of "Orange man bad" and politicians becoming crazed over the power makes it really hard to say what is real and what is made up.

As has been noted...there have been far more impactful infections in our history...but those occurred before the 24 hour news cycle and the hyper sensitivity of our society.

My personal take has been that outside of a 400 meter zone around my house I giveashit.

Stay safe.....

[Pete]

Originally Posted by Last hard class

I'm not arguing with the numbers. But I don't see where you guys have considered all the social fricking distancing and such when you do your comparisons. In other words, do you believe the infections would be the same if we were not social distancing? ......

As I've said since this all started. I've been pretty much able to go and do what I did before this all started. For the last 6 weeks or so I've been eating out in the same places I did before this all started.

Same check out folks are working the registers at Food Lion. Wife continues to try and set records for the numbers of stores she hit in a day.

Pretty much this "social distancing" is all show with very little go.

[Old Dog New Trick]

Originally Posted by Last hard class

I'm not arguing with the numbers. But I don't see where you guys have considered all the social fricking distancing and such when you do your comparisons. In other words, do you believe the infections would be the same if we were not social distancing? Nobody used to give a spit if there was a bad flu season. Take some robitussin and its off to work, vacation ect... .



LHC

This is JMOO. This virus has proven to be very transmissible (surface touch and airborne) and appears that we humans have very little to no natural immunity to it. The elderly population and those with severe or untreated health conditions (*) appear to be very susceptible to the virus raging through their bodies (cytokine release (that’s a protein we all have in our blood) response to our immune system or “cytokine storm”) which causes an unmitigated inflammatory response system wide.

* the list of underlying co-morbidities I believe in order are:
1) Moderate to severe obesity.
2) Heart and vascular issues - hypertension, blood clotting and blockages.
3) Diabetes (More likely than not - untreated diabetes.)
4) Existing compromises in pulmonary function - pneumonia, COPD, emphysema, etc.
5) Other underlying health issues that may be affected from inflammation, blood clotting or severe pyretic conditions or defects.

The good news appears to be that this virus like all other coronaviruses, influenza and the “common” cold are not the super killer we are being led to believe. Yes, all of those viruses can kill. Some more so than others and affect different ages with different results. We haven’t in 50+ years bothered to make a vaccine against coronaviruses and we haven’t found a vaccine for the cold. The A or B vaccine for influenza is a constant guessing game and only a small percentage of the population even gets it yearly. BTW it only helps because you have antigens and antibodies to resist it, you may still get the flu and it could still kill.

I think and this is just a hunch, our kids (those under 20) have developed through us or naturally a small level of immunity from recent exposure to SARS and MERS and may already have been born with antigen/antibodies to resist infection and spread.

Now to answer your question, I really don’t know. My hunch is...I think that what I wear as a requirement for work and meeting local business requirements (a neck gator) and 80+% of the population are wearing as a face covering (homemade cloth masks, bandannas or store bought painters masks) are 100% worthless. Even those who wear and change often a three layer surgical mask are only about 30% protected from getting and 50% less likely to spread the virus through coughing or sneezing. Even a properly worn N95 mask is not rated to .125micron so yes the virus particles can pass right through and a valved mask might as well not be there if you are the infected person coughing and breathing through the hole on the side of the mask.

Social distancing is a made up joke! (Even the scientific community laughed not to long ago, about the same time they told us the truth about masks.) Although I am beginning to appreciate not being crunched into a space or line anymore. Two strangers in an elevator seems to be one to many.

I think and again JMO. The scientific community at large and many many doctors (they are all liberal, some are just more liberal than others and only a few are outspoken but shutdown by the media - especially if they mention Hydroxychloroquine) have let us down. They were given unmitigated power to run an experiment that has failed worse than the effects of the virus. The “band-aid” has been a hodgepodge of confusion and outright lies about masks and social distancing to help “flatten the curve” or control the virus.

Sweden was not the answer (but maybe time will tell), yet neither was Japan (mask wearing capital of the world), and certainly not the hugging kissing Italians and French, or the let’s get naked together Germans. The rest of SE Asia seems to have found something the world might want to look at further next time. They shut the doors and closed their points of entry and screened EVERYONE coming in, but they kept their economies running best they could.

Again all JMOO. I’m not a doctor although I played one for 10-years and slept in a Holiday Inn Express once or twice.

Dr. Fauchi will go down in the history books as the little boy who cried wolf! And will very likely be the scapegoat for when and if we ever resurrect our economy and country from the death spiral it’s in.

JMHO-YMMV

[Old Dog New Trick]

This study published in the WAPO is similar to the one I read through work and from same source.

https://apple.news/AzNrQfdYhR3-0z1r5yzj-hQ

Some things to keep in mind: Airborne droplets are quite large by comparison to the gases we breathe. Virus particles are many times smaller than those droplets (about one billionth times smaller.) The larger the droplets the faster they fall to the ground (where they can be touched but unlikely to be inhaled.) While the smaller ones may remain airborne longer they dry out faster (which theoretically means anything attached to it dies.)

This study only examined what comes out the front of the mask through normal speech. It did not examine or test what comes out the sides, top or bottom during speech, coughing or sneezing.

It also does not determine the loss of protection over time as the materials are soaked with respiratory effort, humidity or fabric breakdown over time. (A surgical mask is only recommended to be used for no more than two hours before being discarded and replaced.) Because a warm moist area is a breeding ground for bacteria and viruses to thrive.

And lastly (not this study) how many more times per hour or even minute do you touch your face to adjust, move or scratch an itch caused by the mask? Just opening my iPhone causes me to touch my face more than I otherwise would so it defeats hand washing and sanitizer use.

When was the last time you wore your mask like your underwear: frontwards, backwards, inside-front, backside out, before washing it and repeating? (I’d wager your undies are cleaner than the mask we put on and off our faces to appease the masses.

[Airbornelawyer]

"The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer deaths due to delays in diagnosis in England, UK: a national, population-based, modelling study"

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...388-0/fulltext

Excerpt from summary:

... compared with pre-pandemic figures, we estimate a 7·9–9·6% increase in the number of deaths due to breast cancer up to year 5 after diagnosis, corresponding to between 281 (95% CI 266–295) and 344 (329–358) additional deaths. For colorectal cancer, we estimate 1445 (1392–1591) to 1563 (1534–1592) additional deaths, a 15·3–16·6% increase; for lung cancer, 1235 (1220–1254) to 1372 (1343–1401) additional deaths, a 4·8–5·3% increase; and for oesophageal cancer, 330 (324–335) to 342 (336–348) additional deaths, 5·8–6·0% increase up to 5 years after diagnosis. For these four tumour types, these data correspond with 3291–3621 additional deaths across the scenarios within 5 years. The total additional YLLs [years of life lost] across these cancers is estimated to be 59 204–63 229 years.

The percentages might not be similar in the United States, since notwithstanding the Covid impact we generally have a better record of treatment for cancers than the NHS-dominated UK healthcare system. But it is more evidence of the human cost of the Covid response.

[Badger52]

Originally Posted by Old Dog New Trick

The A or B vaccine for influenza is a constant guessing game and only a small percentage of the population even gets it yearly. BTW it only helps because you have antigens and antibodies to resist it, you may still get the flu and it could still kill.

Interesting snippet from over at American Partisan:

As of today, the United States has experienced over 170,000 CCP Virus deaths. I was wondering how many of those 170,000 deaths were just plain influenza. The USA’s average influenza deaths over a nine-year period by year is 37,463. I wonder how many influenza deaths will be recorded by the CDC for 2019-20. I suspect none.

Year/Season Deaths*
2010-11 36,656
2011-12 12,447
2012-13 42,570
2013-14 37,930
2014-15 51,376
2015-16 22,705
2016-17 38,230
2017-18 61,099
2018-19 34,157
* = Stats from CDC – Past Seasons Estimated Influenza Disease Burden

Now let us speculate how many deaths this year are being attributed to the CCP Virus when in fact the individual’s death was caused by a car or motorcycle accident, massive heart attack, cancer, etc. I know for a fact that if a person dies for ‘X’ but shows Covid19 in their blood, the death certificate lists the death as CCP Virus.

So... no one's dying this year from influenza of any kind because that's so "last year" ?

[Box]

Originally Posted by Old Dog New Trick

Dr. Fauchi will go down in the history books as the little boy who cried wolf! And will very likely be the scapegoat for when and if we ever resurrect our economy and country from the death spiral it’s in.

JMHO-YMMV

I would love to think that this turd will eventually be exposed for the backstage subversive prick that he really is.
but he wont

He was part of the giant effort to message that the origins of the AIDS epidemic had nothing to do with casual unprotected sex and IV drug abuse - it was because the POTUS hated poor people and minorities..
The left championed him for it - THAT is where he made is bones. The COVID/Fauci maneuver is just the left bringing in a specialty relief pitcher to throw against a guy that they cant strike out.
The cocksucker has been sitting in the bullpen for years - pretending to be an apolitical every-man.
but he isnt

Fauci is a combination megaphone-dog whistle for the treasonous left and he will never be held accountable for his shenanigans. The left will raise the Titanic, fix it, fill it with little children and cute puppies, and then scuttle that mother fucker over the Marianas Trench before they will ever admit to being wrong...
much let accept any responsibility for their treason and hypocrisy

Just my two cents.

[tom kelly]

He is a deep-state actor who has spent his entire career in the D C beltway working as a medical researcher and administrator at NIH. He has been at NIH longer than most of bureaucrats & professional politicians than make-up the swamp. He, DR FAUCI. will be 80 years old in Dec. 2020. THE TIME FOR HIM TO GO HAS PASSED.

[Old Dog New Trick]

Been a couple weeks since we all last evaluated the crisis.

As you can see from this article one thing remains very consistent with this virus.

https://apple.news/AhOYKs6mYQby447QyhywD-A

First, you can make any “metric” or data point you want that supports your thesis or opinion and write a “hit piece headline.” In this case South Dakota has had a 100% increase since the Sturgis Rally. Or in layman’s terms 2 of 1, 20 of 10 or 100 of 50 people have become infected or simply tested positive for the virus since before the rally of approximately 500,000 people came and left.

Second, from the map it continues to show how the virus spread from coastal states popular with incoming tourists from Europe and Asia (primarily Seattle, San Francisco and New York/New Jersey - anomaly to Colorado a ski destination) to the interior industrial states along the southern border from Mexico (Texas, Arizona and Southern California - anomaly Florida a Spring Break destination) and finally it is now affecting the Northern Plains states... All of this to me and my non-scientific analysis shows a very predictable movement from non-infected population through a month long process of increasing rates of infected/hospitalization/death and recovery to falling numbers of infection and death. As the virus moves through the entire population. This also seems consistent with the disease spread throughout the world and within every country the world over. Except those countries that have effectively closed their borders and had tight control of quarantine measures - they seem to remain low and without spread within their borders. Time will tell if they did more harm than say Sweden that did nothing at all except bury the dead old people most reliant on government services (what a utopian socialist liberal or “Cuomo” fantasy!)

It just seems to me that we are not in control of this virus at all, and while we have gotten better at treating it we have no idea how to keep it from infecting those susceptible and those who likely could walk through a gauntlet of infectious people and not get sick.

One day hopefully soon, the scientists realize their colossal mistakes and allow the economists to put the country back on a positive and productive way forward.

Does anyone here, anyone including those who think I’m FOS believe that if we say there is a vaccine that it truly will be a fool proof cure going forward? And to open everything and open schools that all you have to do is show your vaccination record? Or, if because President Trump says “we have a vaccine available for everyone who wants it, free of charge” that all the Democratic naysayers will condemn it before it even gets past the distribution phase? If Trump says it’s good it must be bad!

Let alone if it works or not...??? (How will we know?)

I think without anything being done, this virus will be much like SARS, MERS and perhaps even AIDS or Spanish Flu before it, it will pass into history as something that came into a susceptible human population ran its course and became a seasonal killer for those most likely to die from other health related complications. Everyone else will feel like crap for a week and go on with their lives as if they had the flu.

JMHO-YOMD

ETA: in the time it took me to write this the news is already a step ahead: White House faces skepticism over prospects for a vaccine

[Pete]

No argument from me.

[Old Dog New Trick]

Here is that AP article just so we can look back on it when the time comes to derail the ... (fill in blank with election or recovery)

Posted September 3, 2020 at 15:15:41 CDT

Could the U.S. really see a coronavirus vaccine before Election Day?
A letter from federal health officials instructing states to be ready to begin distributing a vaccine by Nov. 1 — two days before the election — has met, not with exhilaration, but with suspicion among public health experts, who wonder whether the Trump administration is hyping the possibility or intends to rush approval for political gain.
The skepticism comes amid growing questions about the scientific credibility of the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and their vulnerability to political pressure from President Donald Trump.
White House spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany gave assurances Thursday that Trump “will not in any way sacrifice safety" when it comes to a vaccine.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government's top infectious-disease expert and a member of Trump’s coronavirus task force, said on CNN that it is unlikely but “not impossible” that a vaccine could win approval in October, instead of November or December, as many experts believe.
“And I would assume, and I’m pretty sure, it’s going to be the case that a vaccine would not be approved for the American public unless it was indeed both safe and effective," he said.
Also, executives of five top pharmaceutical companies Thursday pledged that no COVID-19 vaccines or treatments will be approved, even for emergency use, without proof they are safe and effective.
The concerns were set off by a letter dated Aug. 27 in which CDC Director Robert Redfield asked the nation's governors to help government contractor McKesson Corp. set up vaccine distribution facilities so that they are up and running by Nov. 1. Redfield did not say a vaccine would be ready by then.
Still, to some public health experts, the timing smacked of a political stunt by a president facing a tough re-election.
“I think it’s almost a certainty,” said Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. He said November "feels awfully early.”
Jha noted the FDA’s recent move to approve emergency use of convalescent plasma against COVID-19. Last week, FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn was forced to correct himself after overstating the lifesaving benefits of such treatment. The CDC also came under fire from scientists in recent days for quietly updating its guidelines to suggest fewer Americans need to get tested for the virus.
Jha said the stakes here are much higher.
“You want to have pretty good safety data on vaccines,” he said. “So I am deeply worried that that’s not what is going to happen.”
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer questioned the Trump administration's motives.
“Too much of the evidence points to the Trump administration pressuring the FDA to approve a vaccine by Election Day to boost the president’s reelection campaign," he said in a statement. “This raises serious safety concerns about politics, not science and public health, driving the decision making process.”
However, some longtime scientific advisers to the FDA said that the government's preparations for the possible early availability of a vaccine do not necessarily mean that an answer will come sooner or that there will be a rush to judgment about whether one works.
“Being prepared for early success ... is actually prudent,” said Dr. Steven Nissen, a Cleveland Clinic cardiologist. If a vaccine is working, “you want to be prepared to act on the information.”
Three COVID-19 vaccines are undergoing final-stage, or Phase 3, clinical trials. The FDA will not be able to even consider a vaccine until several other key steps occur.
First, independent experts on what are known as data safety monitoring boards, or DSMBs, will have to rule that they have collected enough information to draw firm conclusions about a vaccine’s performance. Then the experts will make the data available to the manufacturer, which will decide whether to submit it for FDA approval.
Whether and when to stop a study early is up to a DSMB, whose scientists see a study’s results as they are accumulating. The company does not.
“We will not cut corners,” Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla vowed Thursday in a call with reporters, hosted by a pharmaceutical industry group. Chief executives from Merck, Roche, Eli Lilly and Gilead Sciences agreed, adding extra transparency on testing results and the approval process is needed.
Alex Azar, Trump’s secretary of Health and Human Services, likewise gave assurances that any decision to release a vaccine would be based on the data and the “FDA’s gold standards.”
And he accused those questioning the Nov. 1 date of partisanship.
“I think it’s very irresponsible how people are trying to politicize notions of delivering a vaccine to the American people,” he told CBS. “We already have a significant challenge in this country with vaccine hesitancy. And efforts to undermine confidence in a vaccine ... hurt in terms of people being willing to take a vaccine once it comes through.”
___
Johnson reported from Fairless Hills, Pennsylvania; Smith contributed from Providence, Rhode Island. Writers Marilynn Marchione, Zeke Miller, Matthew Perrone and Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar also contributed.

[bblhead672]

Covid-19 vaccine...because all the previous coronavirus vaccines have been so successfull.

[Ret10Echo]

Originally Posted by bblhead672

Covid-19 vaccine...because all the previous coronavirus vaccines have been so successfull.

Year Adjusted Overall VE (%)
2018-19 - 29%
2017-18 - 38%
2016-17 - 40%
2015-16 - 48%
2014-15 - 19%
2013-14 - 52%
2012-13 - 49%
2011-12 - 47%