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Old 07-12-2016, 09:15   #1
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TRIBUNAL: NO BASIS FOR CHINA'S VAST SOUTH CHINA SEA CLAIMS

Wow, I actually didn't expect them to rule against China..... very interesting indeed!






Jul 12, 9:16 AM EDT

TRIBUNAL: NO BASIS FOR CHINA'S VAST SOUTH CHINA SEA CLAIMS
BY MIKE CORDER AND JIM GOMEZ
ASSOCIATED PRESS

THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) -- A tribunal ruled in a sweeping decision Tuesday that China has no legal basis for its vast claims in the South China Sea and had aggravated the seething regional dispute with its extensive construction of artificial islands that destroyed coral reefs and infringed on the Philippines' exclusive economic zone.

China immediately rejected the arbitration findings, and their impact remained unclear as there is no policing agency or mechanism to enforce them.

It also gives heart to small countries in Asia that have helplessly chafed at China's expansionism, backed by its military and economic power.

"The Philippines strongly affirms its respect for this milestone decision as an important contribution to ongoing efforts in addressing disputes in the South China Sea," Philippine Foreign Secretary Perfecto Yasay said in Manila, calling on "all those concerned to exercise restraint and sobriety."

Former Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario, who helped oversee the filing of the case, said the ruling underscored "our collective belief that right is might and that international law is the great equalizer among states."

Del Rosario stressed that it was important for the ruling to be accepted by all.

"For the sake of maintaining international order, it is imperative that the Award and clarification of maritime entitlements be accepted by all relevant countries - without exception - so that we can work together on how remaining issues can be peacefully resolved," he said.

China and the Philippines are among six governments that have overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea, waters through which an estimated $5 trillion in global trade passes through each year and which have rich fishing stocks and a potential wealth of oil, gas and other resources.

The disputes have also increased friction between China and the United States, which has ramped up its military presence in the region as China has expanded its navy's reach farther offshore.

The Philippines, under a U.N. treaty governing the seas, asked in 2013 for arbitration on a number of issues it had with China.

The five-member panel from the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, Netherlands, unanimously concluded that China had violated its obligations to refrain from aggravating the dispute while the settlement process was ongoing.

It also found that China had interfered with Philippine petroleum exploration at Reed Bank, tried to stop fishing by Philippine vessels within the country's exclusive economic zone and failed to prevent Chinese fishermen from fishing within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone at Mischief Reef and Second Thomas Shoal.

China, which boycotted the entire proceedings, reiterated that it does not accept the panel's jurisdiction. China "solemnly declares that the award is null and void and has no binding force. China neither accepts nor recognizes it," a statement from the foreign ministry said.

It added that "China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea shall under no circumstances be affected by those awards." The ministry repeated China's often-expressed stance that the Philippines' move to initiate arbitration without China's consent was in "bad faith" and in violation of international law.

A professor of Asian political economy said the ruling could be a "transformative moment" in the region.

Speaking outside the Peace Palace in The Hague, Leiden University professor Jonathan London said the decision will "give countries with a common interest in international norms something to point to and to rally around."

He said they can say to China: "Look, here are the results of an international organization that has found that your claims have zero historical basis."


cont:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...07-12-06-24-07
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Old 07-12-2016, 23:25   #2
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The Hague tribunal is the James Comey of International Law...
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Old 07-13-2016, 00:49   #3
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China, which boycotted the entire proceedings, reiterated that it does not accept the panel's jurisdiction. China "solemnly declares that the award is null and void and has no binding force. China neither accepts nor recognizes it," a statement from the foreign ministry said.
China says "You, and whose army?"
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Old 07-13-2016, 07:38   #4
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...we just need to identify a red line that cannot be crossed
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Old 07-13-2016, 11:25   #5
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China says "You, and whose army?"
Navy, unless of course they can now walk on water........ and guess what China sucks at.......navies.
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Old 07-13-2016, 15:02   #6
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Navy, unless of course they can now walk on water........ and guess what China sucks at.......navies.

Though it may not look that way while standing on the deck of a Philippine fishing trawler far from safe shores...

It will be interesting to see if any real naval powers come together to enforce this decision, and who will back down, if it even comes to that. I'm skeptical this will be addressed with significant naval action, though there have been many scenarios written about this since the 1990's at least.

"...extensive construction of artificial islands that destroyed coral reefs..."

It's interesting to hear about the coral reefs. We need more environmental groups loudly shaming PRC for a change. Where are they?

Need more environmental/human rights/animal rights/Falon Gong rights/what-ever-rights groups organizing to set their sights on the PRC, bringing economic boycotts, public awareness and government sanctions. Every dollar spent on some cheap clothes and electronics "Made in China" makes the PRC stronger, and the West weaker.

Action on many fronts needs to be taken to push the PRC back down economically. Their GDP in purchasing power has now overtaken the US, (https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...01rank.html#ch) and they are maintaining a higher GDP growth rate as well. They have been building up their blue water navy for some years now to be a regional naval power.

While the PRC has not been an area of professional interest for me, I think it has become the largest threat to the western world, as it has very different values and has built considerable hard and soft power. Its hand is behind too much of what happens in this hemisphere now as well, even in remote areas of South America.

In my view, the PRC is far more threatening in it's potential than Islamic extremism, which is still an important issue, but I think distracting us from the bigger threat (maybe the PRC intends as much too.)

And my sense is that much of its power is sadly paid for by our own shopping choices.
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Old 10-04-2016, 12:12   #7
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More on the aftermath of the South China Sea claim tribunal, Duerte's "defection", the upcoming U.S. election, and the apparently deteriorating prospects for the West in that arena, all in the pot together and seen through a Japanese lens.


"Major powers are no longer able to solve the world's problems through dialogue. The changing political tide in Washington, precipitated by Obama's anticipated exit in January, is a major factor. The current administration is still touting its pivot to Asia, but critics say he has lost the upper hand when it comes to China. It will be hard for him to take a tougher stance on Beijing in the remaining few months of his term.

Another is the waning authority of international law. An arbitration tribunal in July handed a sweeping defeat to Beijing over its claims in the South China Sea, based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Japan and the U.S. hoped the decision would curb China. But Beijing has categorically rejected the ruling, choosing instead to take advantage of Obama's vulnerability as a lame-duck president to indermine (sic) the existing legal order.

"We are losing hope in Japan and the U.S., and have no choice but to bet on bilateral talks between the Philippines and China," an ASEAN diplomatic source said. But Duterte seems to be approaching Manila's legal victory as a way to draw out economic assistance from Beijing. China's expansion and disregard for international law has shed light on the limits to traditional dialogue in the current world order."


http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Econ...outh-China-Sea

I suspect western diplomacy is running out of value, as, when it comes to China, diplomacy costs much and can deliver little as there is little will (and less economic capacity than there used to be) to escalate when China ignores law and rulings. Increasingly, the old standbys of western "gunboat diplomacy" and "dollar diplomacy" are being used, but now more so by China.

The loss of hope (my bold highlight above) is especially concerning for me. If it is generally true in the population, it may be a prelude to a general mass social mindset of surrender on issues of strategic importance in the democratic countries around or otherwise engaged with China. This will be especially important in the voting public and in the boardrooms where much of the economic battle is (or at least should be) being fought.
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Old 10-04-2016, 15:39   #8
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I don't know........

China does represent a growing threat to global and regional US hegemony.

We've known that.

And we've known that every dollar spent by the US in places like Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen are dollars that aren't necessarily achieving a positive return on investment....which leaves fewer dollars to counter China's rise.

But China's got its own set of serious vulnerabilities...very serious.

I'm left thinking of the late 1980's when everyone thought the US was going to be supplanted by Japan, RIGHT before Japan had their share market and property bubbles popped and have been treading water for 25+ years living off their massive domestic savings rate "fat" in their long slow demographic decline.

The late 80's Japan threat was WAY overblown.

And while the China threat is FAR more real that Japan(China buying REAL assets rather than Pebble Beach Golf Course, Rockerfeller Center, Ferrari GTOs/Picassos at the top of the market), China's unique vulnerabilities(disasterous/corrupt banking sector, lack of genuine self-less nationalism, and a demographic wall that make's Japan's look easy in comparison) will rear their ugly heads at some stage.

China's got a LOT of domestic issues to stay on top of. A LOT. Which can be quite distracting. Hopefully very distracting.
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Old 10-04-2016, 21:15   #9
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China's unique vulnerabilities(disasterous/corrupt banking sector, lack of genuine self-less nationalism, and a demographic wall that make's Japan's look easy in comparison) will rear their ugly heads at some stage.

China's got a LOT of domestic issues to stay on top of. A LOT. Which can be quite distracting. Hopefully very distracting.
IMHOO, prosperity i.e. increased standard of living is our best weapon against them. The more the average Chinese turns into our average 'Murican, the harder the Chinese government can pull anything akin to the cultural revolution.....in other words, create more leeching "democrats" in China
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Old 10-04-2016, 22:41   #10
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IMHOO, prosperity i.e. increased standard of living is our best weapon against them. The more the average Chinese turns into our average 'Murican, the harder the Chinese government can pull anything akin to the cultural revolution.....in other words, create more leeching "democrats" in China
I've read that China needs to turn "X" number of sustenance farmers into factory workers every month just to avoid a social disaster/Tiananmen 2.0.

I've read that "X" is a really, really big number.

The advent of robotics to replace repetitive physical movements(even including high end expensive repetitive like say Laser eye surgery) is gong to disrupt a lot of jobs.

I reckon China could suffer badly with hundreds of millions stuck in the transition.

And places like Africa and North Korea, expecting to be the "next China" global sweatshop, may be beaten out by tech singularity.

----

Anywho, the mainland Chinese(some quite senior folks in private sector) I got to know the last few months all individually and consistently viewed their own country as a corrupt Wild West, lacking any national cohesion that didn't involve dollar or yuan signs.

The other point of consistency for them is wanting to buy property in US, NZ, and Australia(Canada to a lesser extent).

It went way, way beyond the prestige of buying a home overseas(like many in 90's dot com days talking of an apartment in London/Paris).

It felt distinctly like buying lifeboat seats on the Titanic before it hits the iceberg.

So while I'm not all doom and gloom about China and saying don't worry about it, it's kinda troubling to consistently hear from folks living the Chinese version of the American Dream that they are so keen to buy a bolt hole.

Not exactly a sign of confidence from those who have benefitted the most.
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