Wuhan Coronavirus

[Badger52]

Interesting article from a Floridian Fox affiliate regarding what are turning out to be bogus positive test results. Whether from guidance that was FUBAR, or simply testing being done by a bunch of low-flying dolts who couldn't take over mess hall duties from the Pakistanis...

This is just one area. Are we to believe that this kluge isn't represented somewhere else in the country as well?
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ORLANDO, Fla. - After FOX 35 News noticed errors in the state's report on positivity rates, the Florida Department of Health said that some laboratories have not been reporting negative test result data to the state.

Countless labs have reported a 100 percent positivity rate, which means every single person tested was positive. Other labs had very high positivity rates. FOX 35 News found that testing sites like one local Centra Care reported that 83 people were tested and all tested positive. Then, NCF Diagnostics in Alachua reported 88 percent of tests were positive.

How could that be? FOX 35 News investigated these astronomical numbers, contacting every local location mentioned in the report.

The report showed that Orlando Health had a 98 percent positivity rate. However, when FOX 35 News contacted the hospital, they confirmed errors in the report. Orlando Health's positivity rate is only 9.4 percent, not 98 percent as in the report.

The report also showed that the Orlando Veteran’s Medical Center had a positivity rate of 76 percent. A spokesperson for the VA told FOX 35 News on Tuesday that this does not reflect their numbers and that the positivity rate for the center is actually 6 percent.

More at the jump here.

[JJ_BPK]

Originally Posted by Badger52

Interesting article from a Floridian Fox affiliate regarding what are turning out to be bogus positive test results. Whether from guidance that was FUBAR, or simply testing being done by a bunch of low-flying dolts who couldn't take over mess hall duties from the Pakistanis...

This is just one area. Are we to believe that this kluge isn't represented somewhere else in the country as well?
---------

Or NOT-45 SJW's that want to make bad numbers the new normal??

[Badger52]

Originally Posted by JJ_BPK

Or NOT-45 SJW's that want to make bad numbers the new normal??

Absolutely a possibility. Already known that an apocalyptic study done by a London institute used a single model extrapolated across the US. The model? NYFC.

[PSM]

OMG!

[Ret10Echo]

Originally Posted by PSM

OMG!

That's a photo-shopped meme right?

[Box]

Originally Posted by Ret10Echo

That's a photo-shopped meme right?

I'll take that question a step farther...
...are you curious - or joking


The Democratic Peoples Republic of American Idol has deteriorated to a point where it COULD be a real screen grab...
...you question is a legitimate one.

The only way to know for sure if the story is true, is to watch Good Morning Comrades with Jorge Snuffalupagus to see if they blame the spike in COVID based meth lab explosions on the POTUS wearing and/or not wearing his mask in public.

[Ret10Echo]

Originally Posted by Box

The only way to know for sure if the story is true, is to watch Good Morning Comrades with Jorge Snuffalupagus to see if they blame the spike in COVID based meth lab explosions on the POTUS wearing and/or not wearing his mask in public.

Yeaaaahhhh...... No

[Box]

Originally Posted by Ret10Echo

Yeaaaahhhh...... No

I am so triggered by that photo...
is that gun violence resulting in rainbow blood?
do you hate free speech?
are you depicting an old analog TV because you are a technophobe?
do you still hate puppies and bunny rabbits?

so many questions

[Pete]

Interesting article - "The original article was published in the Swiss magazine Weltwoche (World Week) on June 10th. The author, Beda M Stadler is the former director of the Institute for Immunology at the University of Bern, a biologist and professor emeritus. Stadler is an important medical professional in Switzerland, he also likes to use provoking language, which should not deter you from the extremely important points he makes.

This article is about Switzerland and it does not suggest that the situation is exactly the same globally. I am advocating for local measures according to local situations. And I advocate for looking at real data rather than abstract models. I also suggest to read to the end, because Stadler makes crucial points about testing for Sars-CoV-2."

https://medium.com/@vernunftundricht...g-fce6db5ba809

"This is not an accusation, but a ruthless taking stock [of the current situation]. I could slap myself, because I looked at Sars-CoV2- way too long with panic. I am also somewhat annoyed with many of my immunology colleagues who so far have left the discussion about Covid-19 to virologist and epidemiologist. I feel it is time to criticise some of the main and completely wrong public statements about this virus...."

[Old Dog New Trick]

Pete, I find myself in complete agreement with the above article.

Maybe wouldn’t call it a “cold” and also leads one to wonder if during the first round of SARS that we humans created and passed on to our newborn children an important immunity to SARS like coronaviruss. Something that also might indicate why those under 30 are also less likely to be immunodeficient and only suffer mild symptoms if any at all.

I hope more calmer heads prevail and stop all the panic. It’s time to get back to normal...whatever that is.

[Badger52]

Originally Posted by Pete

Interesting article -

Interesting doesn't begin to describe it - thank you very much for sharing that link. I'd be pleasantly whamboozled if anyone in the media took the relatively short time (> a presser soundbite) to present that. While seeming technically solid, it is - at the level he wrote it - quite understandable.
Eye opening.

[Airbornelawyer]

I don't know if I am just continuing to beat a dead horse here, but here is an update as of 15 July 2020 for the state case fatality rates from the 30 June 2020 version upthread. Numbers in yellow or red are the new 15 July CFRs.

You will see that, as noted in previous posts, the CFRs continue to decline in most states, in some cases significantly. The most obvious reason, and again I am repeating myself, is that the "spike" in cases being breathlessly reported in the media is mainly an artefact of increased testing. As the Swiss article above notes, though, the testing being done doesn't necessarily mean new infections; some of the infections are new, due to more public interactions, and some are just finding people who were already infected but were immune or asymptomatic, and had the residue of the virus in their systems. As there has not been a corresponding spike in hospitalizations or deaths, the CFRs have fallen because that's how ratios work.

It is the case, however, that the CFRs have not fallen, or have not fallen by very much, in the northeastern states hit first and hardest by the epidemic, notably the New England states, New York, New Jersey and Michigan, as well as Virginia and DC. The partisan in me might want to blame this on the poor response to the crisis by these mainly Democrat-run states, but I think another factor is simply that these states are further along the epidemic curve, and the virus has pretty much infected and killed most of whom it could. Essentially, they have reached their herd immunity threshold. So the growth in new cases and deaths are both low in absolute numbers, down 90-95% from the peak, and track with each other, so the CFR remains steady.

In the meantime, though, the mainstream media and their leftist political allies continue to salivate at the notion of a spike in the southern and western states, despite the evidence. Not only have hospitalizations and deaths not spiked as they hoped, but the falling CFRs make these states more comparable to the success stories the media have celebrated, like South Korea and Japan, and to a lesser extent Germany and Switzerland. South Korea especially was praised for strict quarantines, masking of the populace, and other measures of social control which most Americans generally find oppressive but which are beloved of a certain subset of Americans who believe they know better than you how to live your life.

So what is the CFR as of 15 July in South Korea, according to data from the WHO? It is 2.13%, higher than that of, among others, Texas, Florida, Arizona, Oklahoma, Alabama, North and South Carolina, Tennessee, and even California. Georgia, the state that even President Trump attacked for being one of the first to relax social distancing guidelines, and in which media sources like The Atlantic were predicting a deluge of dead bodies, has a death rate only slightly worse than South Korea, and better than Japan, Germany and Switzerland, and the Georgia rate is still falling.

Here, by the way, are the CFRs as of 15 July based on WHO data for selected countries. I generally avoided Third-World countries and others whose official data or data collection methods I would not consider reliable. I did include the PRC, even though their claimed numbers are highly questionable; even their likely low-ball number is worse than all but 8 U.S. states.

0.93% - Israel
1.05% - Australia
2.13% - South Korea
2.60% - India
2.66% - Czechia
2.82% - Norway
3.01% - United States of America (ex-NY/NJ/CT)
3.55% - Portugal
3.72% - Austria
3.86% - Brazil
3.98% - United States of America
4.13% - Poland
4.37% - Japan
4.54% - Germany
4.67% - Denmark
5.12% - Switzerland
5.43% - China (PRC)
6.80% - Ireland
7.30% - Sweden
11.07% - Spain
11.66% - Mexico
11.99% - Netherlands
14.38% - Italy
15.43% - United Kingdom
15.59% - Belgium

[Trapper John]

Originally Posted by Pete

Interesting article - "The original article was published in the Swiss magazine Weltwoche (World Week) on June 10th. The author, Beda M Stadler is the former director of the Institute for Immunology at the University of Bern, a biologist and professor emeritus. Stadler is an important medical professional in Switzerland, he also likes to use provoking language, which should not deter you from the extremely important points he makes.

This article is about Switzerland and it does not suggest that the situation is exactly the same globally. I am advocating for local measures according to local situations. And I advocate for looking at real data rather than abstract models. I also suggest to read to the end, because Stadler makes crucial points about testing for Sars-CoV-2."

https://medium.com/@vernunftundricht...g-fce6db5ba809

"This is not an accusation, but a ruthless taking stock [of the current situation]. I could slap myself, because I looked at Sars-CoV2- way too long with panic. I am also somewhat annoyed with many of my immunology colleagues who so far have left the discussion about Covid-19 to virologist and epidemiologist. I feel it is time to criticise some of the main and completely wrong public statements about this virus...."

Thank you, thank you for finding this! I must confess that I am a little embarrassed that the search engines that I routinely monitor didn't pick this up or either I'm getting sloppy in my old age! Like Stadler I too know Tony Fauci and hold him in high regard. As a lowly chemist/immunologist and medical researcher, I have deferred any criticism of my esteemed epidemiologist/virologist colleagues.

Stadler is exactly correct in his assessments. I will only take issue with his statement that SARS-COV2 will diminish in the summer months. That will depend on sociological factors such as social distancing interfering with viral transmission. Not a big deal though. That will promote development of herd immunity at a very low risk or cost.

But, but that won't be consistent with the desired political narrative - lock-down, lock-down, and do it now! Don't be a selfish boob! Think of the defenseless and helpless others!

Oh by the way, did I say THANK YOU Pete?

[Badger52]

Ran across a study here done in Vietnam from 5 years ago that seems (I am not a SME) to get pretty deep into the efficacy of cloth masks v. surg masks v. N95 etc. Title is "A cluster randomised trial of cloth masks compared with medical masks in healthcare workers."

Those here with the appropriate training in these disciplines may want to weigh in. Conditions under consideration at the time seem to consider MERS, Ebola, earlier SARS variants..

Interestingly, in light of the current Covid-19 situation (SARS Part Deux) they wrote a response that can be found here, done as a result of being bombarded with email questions, and they included their disclaimer that they were the authors of the original study.

Perhaps those here with the appropriate background will find it interesting or be able to translate beyond the "1, 2, 3, many" level I might understand or assess whether they consider that a valid study.

[Airbornelawyer]

OK, now we have something from the CDC for the US. The attached graph is the weekly number of deaths, from all causes, from January 1, 2017 to the week ending July 4, 2020. With the caveat that data for recent weeks may be incomplete, the trendline is pretty clear. Also worth noting is the spike for the 2017-18 flu season.