Tunisia

[Team Sergeant]

Originally Posted by silentreader

Team Sergeant,

I apologize for misplacing this post. Feel free to move it to the appropriate forum (not that you'd need my permission).

Alternatively, I also mention protests in Jordan and Algeria and the Lebanese crisis, so renaming the thread something along the lines of Political Turmoil in the Arab World could also be appropriate.

Finally, an honest question. In the future, should I have something to post about either a)Israel/Palestine or b)Turkey should it be posted in the Europe thread or the Middle East thread?

I didn't take any offense and you didn't need to apologize. The mistake led to good discussion. It stays here now.

We broke our global forums down by geographic region, not culture.

[LongWire]

Originally Posted by silentreader

Finally, an honest question. In the future, should I have something to post about either a)Israel/Palestine or b)Turkey should it be posted in the Europe thread or the Middle East thread?

I would say that Israel and Palestine land squarely in the ME......Turkey is part of the EU now if we were to include them Geographically. I personally don't think of them being a ME country, more of a crossroads.......but that goes back a few centuries.

[lindy]

Originally Posted by silentreader

It's a good question, and gets to the principle difficulty in using any term with sweeping connotations (such as Middle-east, Arab, Islam, Christian, European, "Westerner" etc...) In fact, I'd say the answer is the same as why we consider Australians (or Israelis) to be Westerners instead of Asians. Geographically, they look like they're a lot closer to China, but culturally and historically, their roots lie in what we know as "The West".

Same thing goes for all the countries in North Africa: their history and their self-identification link them much closer to the Middle East than to Europe (or the rest of Africa). They share a language (even if they butcher it beyond recognition in places), a religion (for the most part) and an ethnic identity with Middle Easterners. GRANTED, a lot of Berbers disagree, but even they have adopted many of the "identifiers" of Middle Eastern life.

The really simple and most honest answer to your question is I didn't even think about it. For me, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt all fall squarely within the realm of "Middle East." It's countries in the Sahil and the Horn of Africa like Eritrea, Somalia, the Sudan, and Mauritania that are harder for me to define.

Clearly you have not spent much time in Northern Africa. Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya have a completely different "feel" than the Middle East. Way different. Egypt, in my opinion, has spread their "culture" to the ME via movies and TV shows. This is similar to Russia in the mid-90's and their cravings of anything "American" thanks to American TV shows (reruns of 90201, Melrose Place, and anything uttered by Carson Daly). Also, guys from ME countries don't really mind each other (e.g. Kuwaitis, Emiratis, Saudis, Iraqis, etc) but bring an Egyptian to the party and things change. They all "see" a difference...why don't we?

The HOA and Sahel are really easy to define: Crap-hole-istan.

[silentreader]

Originally Posted by lindy

Clearly you have not spent much time in Northern Africa.

This is true; 2 weeks in Morocco is all I can claim.

Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya have a completely different "feel" than the Middle East. Way different.

Different compared to what? They may be more different than, say, Qatar and Bahrain, but aren't they still closer to that culture than they are to Uganda, for example? They seem to be especially close cousins to the Levantine countries (especially Lebanon). I think the Francophone influence has a lot to do with this.

Egypt, in my opinion, has spread their "culture" to the ME via movies and TV shows. This is similar to Russia in the mid-90's and their cravings of anything "American" thanks to American TV shows (reruns of 90201, Melrose Place, and anything uttered by Carson Daly).

This is true, though Egyptian films are starting to feel dated. American/Syrian/Lebanese and Turkish T.V. shows and movies, broadcast from the Gulf, are the new "big deal" in the M.E.

Also, guys from ME countries don't really mind each other (e.g. Kuwaitis, Emiratis, Saudis, Iraqis, etc) but bring an Egyptian to the party and things change. They all "see" a difference...why don't we?

If one were to try to keep track of all the differences Middle Easterners see that Westerners can't, one would soon go crazy. I once went to a bar-on-a-roof in Beirut by myself. I was sitting in-between two groups of people: 4 girls on my left and 2 guys on my right, all Lebanese. They each started talking to me, and it was getting difficult to keep two conversations going at once, so I kind of tried to combine everybody into a nice, gender balanced group of 4 girls and 3 guys. No way. The Lebanese girls kept telling me that Lebanese guys are scum, and the Lebanese guys kept telling me how Lebanese girls are gold diggers. Finally, I turned to the guys and said, "listen, I'm sure you're really nice. But I'm alone at a bar and can either talk with 4 girls or 2 guys.... have a nice night." That story, to me, is the Middle East in a nutshell.

The HOA and Sahel are really easy to define: Crap-hole-istan.

That is easy, and sounds about right. I got close to the Western Sahara border in Morocco, the desert itself is gorgeous but the towns... not so much.


Edit: I also think Islam takes our eye of the ball a little bit; the North African countries could just as easily be considered part of a Southern European/Levantine/Magrhebee "Mediterranean Rim" cultural group. Greeks, Italians, Spanish, coastal Turks and coastal Arabs (phoenicians?) have a lot more in common than they'd like to admit

[silentreader]

Originally Posted by LongWire

I would say that Israel and Palestine land squarely in the ME......Turkey is part of the EU now if we were to include them Geographically. I personally don't think of them being a ME country, more of a crossroads.......but that goes back a few centuries.

I would agree with the first part, reason I asked is Israel/Palestine is considered EUCOM responsibility. As for Turkey, I'll use my best judgement, if the hypothetical story discusses the western part of Istanbul, it will go under Europe. If it discusses the rest of Turkey, I'll file it in the Middle East. If it talks about the Bosphorus...

Originally Posted by Team Sergeant

I didn't take any offense and you didn't need to apologize. The mistake led to good discussion. It stays here now.

We broke our global forums down by geographic region, not culture

Thanks for the response. I'm a guest in your house and don't want to track any mud.

[Team Sergeant]

Originally Posted by silentreader

Thanks for the response. I'm a guest in your house and don't want to track any mud.

I think you'll do well here.

[silentreader]

Originally Posted by Team Sergeant

I think you'll do well here.

I hope so. I can not imagine a better source of wisdom for a young (future) soldier than this site.

Back to the original topic, it seems that Tunisians have only taken the first step and their country's future is still very uncertain.

Does this remind anybody of the first stages of the Iranian revolution?

[blue902]

Originally Posted by silentreader

This is true; 2 weeks in Morocco is all I can claim.



Different compared to what? They may be more different than, say, Qatar and Bahrain, but aren't they still closer to that culture than they are to Uganda, for example? They seem to be especially close cousins to the Levantine countries (especially Lebanon). I think the Francophone influence has a lot to do with this.




This is true, though Egyptian films are starting to feel dated. American/Syrian/Lebanese and Turkish T.V. shows and movies, broadcast from the Gulf, are the new "big deal" in the M.E.

I would posit Egyptian/Lebanese/Turkish shows and movies are the most prevalent in the M.E. and are a significant current type of al-tarb, a kind of Arab view of zeitgeist. If anything, Morocco and Tunisia are the outsiders. From Libya to Saudi to Iraq is Arab Islamic country, and on the borders of that are cousins, sometimes with a history of imperial ambition (Iran, Turkey).

[incarcerated]

http://www.daylife.com/photo/008a6MW2SAgBB?q=tunisia

6 hours ago
PARIS - JANUARY 15: Tunisian expatriates shout slogans while holding a placard as they demonstrate on January 15, 2011 in Paris, France....

[Pete]

Army attacks Tunisian presidential palace

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110116...csunrestpalace

"TUNIS (AFP) – The Tunisian army launched an assault on Sunday against supporters of ousted president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali holed up inside the presidential palace on the outskirts of Tunis, a security source told AFP......."

Things still bubbling over there.

[incarcerated]

Just a coincidence that, while the generally Asian practice of self-immolation is finding new practitioners in North Africa, this past weekend’s TV news showed a Tunisian protestor telling a reporter, “We want all power to the people!”
http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical...coup-contagion

Arab Leaders Fear Coup Contagion

January 18, 2011 | 0446 GMT
Individuals in three North African countries committed self-immolation on Monday, as Arab governments across the wider region sought to stem the potential for contagion generated by the recent popular uprising in Tunisia, which itself began with an act of self-immolation on Dec. 17. From Syria to Kuwait to Egypt and beyond, ruling regimes are looking inward and trying to pre-empt their discontented masses from coalescing into a threat to their rule.
As STRATFOR has noted, the larger significance of the Tunisian coup lies in its potential to be replicated elsewhere in the Arab world, and in how various governments choose to respond in an effort to prevent it from happening again. Opposition groups in every Arab country have now seen that it is possible to topple regimes that have been in place for decades, and that it does not take an Islamist uprising to do it. Tunisia, in short, has inspired them….

[akv]

"Let Them Eat Cake?"

Originally Posted by STRATFOR Link post #26

Governments in the region fear that such a dramatic act of suicide attempted in so public a fashion — with “new media” forums such as blogs, Twitter, Facebook and YouTube ready to spread the word in a way that can’t be done when state media is all that exists — could trigger a similar event in another country. These governments are searching for ways to pre-emptively appease their constituencies by offering economic aid packages and modest openings of political space. In the three days since the fall of former Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, there have been multiple examples of such concessions. 


In Kuwait, Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah decreed that every Kuwaiti citizen receive a one-time payment of KD 1,000 (roughly $3,558), plus free food rations for 13 months beginning in February. Officially, the gifts are being made in coordination with the fifth anniversary of al-Sabah’s rule.

In Syria, state media reported a government plan worth $250 million to help 420,000 impoverished families. Cash loans will be distributed to Syrian citizens who qualify for the aid beginning in February.

In Egypt, the managing editor of the ruling National Democratic Party’s (NDP) website wrote an article declaring that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak does not want poor people to pay new taxes or carry any additional burdens, and NDP officials have been tasked with determining a way to implement this directive throughout the year. In addition, the Egyptian Cabinet announced that it has drafted a law that sets 2017 as the deadline for political parties represented in parliament to field presidential candidates.

In Sudan (the northern, Arab region), the governor of Khartoum state announced measures designed to soften the blow of recent price hikes on commodities such as cooking oil and sugar. Free school meals and health insurance cards will be distributed to 30,000 students and their families.

This is a trend that will likely continue in the coming weeks and months, as world food prices remain high and global economic growth tepid. Arab countries that don’t have the oil wealth of the Persian Gulf states are constrained economically from being able to spend much on social development, but they will seek ways to do so nonetheless, in efforts to garner good faith among those they see as most likely to revolt. Granting additional freedoms to populations used to living under an autocratic society is historically much more dangerous for the ruling regime, but depending on each country’s circumstances, these various Arab governments may one day not have much of a choice. One thing is certain: No Arab ruler wants a citizen to light himself on fire on a busy city street, for fear of the possible side effects.

[Richard]

FYI - for planning purposes and area orientation, SF historically defined Africa sub-regionally as either Africa North of the Sahara or as Sub-Saharan Africa.

Be that as it may, now that we've determined Tunisia is still an African nation in that it actually lies in the geographically defined continent of Africa and despite the seeming wishes by some on this BB to move it (good luck with that one)...here are a few points to ponder.

Richard

What Tunisia Means for the Arab World
Atlantic, 18 Jan 2011

The popular uprising in Tunisia that forced dictator President Ben Ali to flee the country last week has left the North African country in a state of limbo. Ministers loyal to Ben Ali, who ruled for 23 years, are rapidly resigning their posts, an interim government is pledging to hold free elections, and the military is attempting to restore order as protests continue, looting becomes a problem, and rogue police officers continue to crack down. It's not clear where Tunisia goes next. Many commentators, however, find it increasingly apparent that Tunisia's historic uprising will have a profound effect on the rest of the Arab world, which spans across North Africa and the Middle East. What exactly that means, and how it plays out, is near-impossible to predict. Here's what analysts and reporters are saying about the impact of Tunisia so far and what it could mean going forward.

• Turning Point for Arab Democracy "If Tunisia's interim leaders respond to the demands of their people and usher in new elections," Michael Wahid Hanna writes in The Atlantic, "an Arab country will have toppled a tyrant through the power of its people and not the point of an American gun." This will establish an important precedent of democratic reform led internally by Arab peoples, rather than imposed from outside. "While the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the protests of the 'green movement' in Iran have had far-ranging regional ramifications, when it comes to promoting Arab democracy, Tunisia's 2011 uprising may eclipse them both."

• Self-Immolation Protests Spread Across Region Tunisia's protests began after a young man frustrated by police exploitation and arbitrary rule set himself on fire by touching a high-voltage current. The New York Times' Mona El-Naggar reports on the disturbing trend this has begun. "In Algeria, four men have set themselves on fire in the last week, and one man in Egypt and another in Mauritania tried to do so on Monday. They appear to be evidence of how deeply the ouster of Tunisia's autocratic president has captivated nearby countries, where citizens have limited opportunities for free expression or political participation."

• Is Egypt Next? Eric Trager writes in The Atlantic that "Egypt's liberal activists overwhelmingly come from the wired generation of Twitter and Facebook, and this makes them optimistic that pro-democratic movements can go viral, even in a political environment as traditionally illiberal as the Middle East." In fact, "pointing to recent demonstrations in Jordan and Algeria, they insist that Tunisia's 'Jasmine Revolution' will be contagious--if only people build off its momentum." But, Trager warns, protesters daunting obstacles, "In particular, an entrenched dictatorship that is determined to discredit the very idea of domino-effect democratization." He concludes, "The safe bet in Egypt is always on regime stability. But as Tunisia has demonstrated, anything is possible."

• Reforms Likely, Revolutions Are Not "Analysts say," The Christian Science Monitor's Scott Peterson writes, " that while Tunisia's so-called 'Jasmine Revolution' has shocked the Arab world ... it is unlikely to result in a chain of similar revolutions, but rather wider political reforms." Tunisia's strong middle class made it unusually likely to launch a successful popular uprising, and other Arab autocrats are well-practiced at squashing dissent. Still, the protests may encourage those leaders to institute some promising reforms, is only out of self-defense.

• Look to the Gulf Model UAE-based columnist Sultan al-Qassemi argues in Foreign Policy that "it is the Gulf city-states of Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Doha--all of which are ruled by an assortment of emirs and monarchs--that offer the most compelling path forward for the Arab world. Despite a lack of Western-style democracy, talented young Arabs have flocked to these states in search of a better life." While al-Qassemi would of course prefer full democratization, the compromises of wealthy Gulf states, he says, could provide a middle path. "In the meantime, most Arabs would settle for a dignified and secure life. And that is precisely what the Gulf states are providing."

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/opini...rab-World-6594

[incarcerated]

Where have I heard this expression before?

….Algerian opposition groups have used events in Tunisia as a backdrop for demonstrations, including a pro-democracy rally planned for Saturday. Algeria's state news agency urged citizens not to heed the call to protest.
In Jordan, several thousand people participated in demonstrations last week, including what left-wing groups and trade unions yesterday called a "day of rage" over rising food and fuel prices. There were also demonstrations in restive southern Yemen, where protesters said recent government reforms didn't go far enough….

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...954779120.html

[Richard]

The protesters who toppled Tunisia's dictator weren't advocating sharia or Islamic law. They were calling for freedom, democracy, and multiparty elections. Across the Arab Middle East, the generation that is leading the protest against dictatorship does not have an Islamist character.

Richard

The Tunisian revolt: Where have all the Islamists gone?
CSM, 21 Jan 2011

The novel characteristic of the first peaceful popular revolution to topple a dictatorship in the Arab world is that there is nothing Islamic about it.

The young Tunisian street peddler who triggered the revolt by publicly burning himself reminds us of the Vietnamese Buddhist monks in 1963 or of Jan Palach in Czechoslovakia in 1969 – an act of precisely the opposite nature from the suicide bombings that are the trademark of present Islamic terrorism.

Even in this sacrificial act, there has been nothing religious: no green or black turban, no loose white gown, no “Allah Akbar,” no call to jihad. It was instead an individual, desperate, and absolute protest, without a word on paradise and salvation.

Suicide in this case was the last act of freedom aimed at shaming the dictator and prodding the public to react. It was a call to life, not death.

In the street demonstrations that followed, there was no call for an Islamic state, no white shroud put by protesters in front of the bayonets as in Tehran in 1978.

Nothing about sharia or Islamic law. And, most striking, no “down with US imperialism.” The hated regime was perceived as an indigenous one, the result of fear and passivity, and not as the puppet of French or US neocolonialism, despite its endorsement by the French political elite.

An End To Kleptocratic Rule

Instead, the protesters were calling for freedom, democracy, and multiparty elections. Put more simply, they just wanted to get rid of the kleptocratic ruling family (“dégage!” as said a popular motto in French).

In this Muslim society nothing about an “Islamic exceptionalism” was manifest. And at the end, when the real “Islamist” leaders came from their exile in the West (yes they are in the West, not in Afghanistan or Saudi Arabia), they, like Rachid Ghannoushi, spoke of elections, coalition government, and stability – all the while keeping a low profile.

Have The Islamists Disappeared?

No. But in North Africa, at least, most of them have become democrats. True, fringe groups have followed the path of a nomadic global jihad and are roaming the Sahel in search of hostages, but they have no real support in the population. That is why they went to the desert.

Nevertheless, these highway robbers are still branded as a strategic threat by Western governments at a loss to design a long-term policy. Other Islamists have just given up politics and closed their door, pursuing a pious, conservative, but apolitical way of life. They put a burqa on their wives as well as on their lives.

But the bulk of the former Islamists have come to the same conclusion of the generation that founded the Justice and Development (AK) party in Turkey: There is no third way between democracy and dictatorship. There is just dictatorship and democracy.

This acknowledgement of the failure of political Islam has met the mood of the new generation of protesters in Tunisia. The new Arab generation is not motivated by religion or ideology, but by the aspiration for a peaceful transition to a decent, democratic, and “normal” government. They just want to be like the others.

The Tunisian revolt helps clarify a reality about Arab life: The terrorism we’ve seen over the past few years, with its utopian millenarism, doesn’t stem from the real societies of the Middle East. More Islamic radicals are to be found in the West than at home.

To be sure, the picture differs from country to country. The post-Islamist generation is more visible in North Africa than in Egypt or Yemen, not to speak of Pakistan, which is a collapsing country. But everywhere in the Arab Middle East, the generation that is leading the protest against dictatorship does not have an Islamist character.

This is not to say there are no big challenges ahead. There are indeed many: how to find political leaders who can live up to popular expectations; how to avoid the pitfalls of anarchy; how to reconstruct political and social bonds that have been deliberately destroyed by dictatorial regimes and rebuild a civil society.

But there is at least one immediate question raised by the Tunisian revolution.

West Must Reconsider Is Approach

Why is the West still supporting most of the Middle East dictatorships even as this democratic surge roils across the region? The answer in the past, of course, has been that the West sees authoritarian regimes as the best bulwark against Islamism.

That was the rationale behind its support for the cancellation of the elections in Algeria in 1990, for turning a blind eye on the rigging of the Egyptian elections, and for ignoring the choice of the Palestinians in Gaza.

In light of the Tunisian experience, this approach must be reevaluated. In the first place, these regimes are no longer a reliable bulwark. They could just collapse at anytime. Second, what are they a bulwark against if the new generation is post-Islamist and pro-democratic?

Just as Tunisia has been a turning point in the Arab world, so too it must be a turning point in the West’s policy toward the region. Realpolitik today means supporting the democratization of the Middle East.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/...Islamists-gone