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Old 03-07-2010, 14:08   #1
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Target Somalia: AFRICOM’s Expanding Mission Should Include Combating Piracy

The myriad of problems facing the African continent are complex. Triaging these problems is a difficult exercise, especially when the political undertones driving current problems will invariably change. Governments will realign their priorities, and allies, when neighboring governments fall, which is an all too common occurrence here; and one that makes diplomatic progress particularly challenging for the United States and other world powers. Being forced to reset their objectives, or renegotiate trade agreements, when new administrations take power, takes a heavy toll on progress. The regional focus that AFRICOM is establishing is an important first step towards stabilizing the problem while also providing a viable platform for advancing American and Coalition objectives by challenging the impunity of groups like al Qaeda who routinely operate as security escorts for drug cartels in exchange for cash. Once a bastion of refuge for terrorists and drug cartels that hid behind corrupt governments, today’s Africa is being steadily liberated by the cooperative efforts of special attachments working in concert, enabled by the foothold established by US Africa Command. Somebody finally got it right. AFRICOM’s footprint is big enough and diverse enough, to survive the changing political landscape and has enough resources and importantly, joint command authority that the job is getting done – finally. The World Health Organization (WHO) laid the early ground work, and created the first working model of multi-organizational cooperation, with their border-transcending medical missions in the face of the AIDS crisis; and the US Army played an important role in that effort.

And there’s a particularly popular fringe benefit that may soon be realized, in spite of official “denials” that the US has a direct role in Somalia; this doesn’t necessarily preclude other “special” or indirect roles or courses of action.

“U.S. military support to international efforts in Somalia was discussed during a media roundtable March 4, 2010, in Brussels, Belgium”,……. “During the roundtable, the two officials articulated current U.S. policy with regard to Somalia. They noted that the United States seeks ways to work with international partners to strengthen ongoing stability efforts in Somalia and other countries.” U.S. AFRICOM Public Affairs

With the joint command structure firmly in place, and growing international calls for action, there’s reason to hope that AFRICOM will at some point in the near future take action to combat the Somalia piracy problem. This will require regularly patrolling the skies and waters off the Somalia coast and establishing an emergency notification system for ships and private yachts. The world has grown tired of the “do nothing” approach advocated by liberal-minded diplomats who think we can correct the problem by addressing the economic factors that drive young Somali’s to piracy in the first place. The problem with this methodology is that it will take generations to correct the problem using this approach and the world isn’t willing to stand down when governments are being hijacked and innocent travelers are being robbed and killed while the liberal advocates are waiting for sprigs to grow into trees to solve the problem economically. Pirates should take notice that the resources needed to obliterate them are being assembled and that capable special operators will consider them no more formidable than range targets. If you’re a Somalian pirate, this might be a good time to consider a new line of work.
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Old 03-07-2010, 18:52   #2
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I think that is a very rosy perspective on how things might turn out.

IMHO, the reality is that virtually all of the African states suffer from decaying infrastructure and such pandemic corruption as to qualify as kleptocracies, and are so close as to be nearly failed states like Somalia rather than emerging democracies. The rich get richer, and skim as much of the aid to the poor off as they can get away with. Every team I have talked to which has returned from an African state have the same story. Near total lack of resources, other than people, and a bribe, "fee" or other extortion attempt every time a new official is encountered, and a rampant lack of responsibility.

More aid to Africa is, IMHO, only going to line the pockets of a few and in the end, create more starving Africans. I do not think anything AFRICOM does is going to change that.

TR
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Old 03-08-2010, 16:48   #3
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AFRICOM’s Expanding Mission Should Include Combating Piracy

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I think that is a very rosy perspective on how things might turn out.

IMHO, the reality is that virtually all of the African states suffer from decaying infrastructure and such pandemic corruption as to qualify as kleptocracies, and are so close as to be nearly failed states like Somalia rather than emerging democracies. The rich get richer, and skim as much of the aid to the poor off as they can get away with. Every team I have talked to which has returned from an African state have the same story. Near total lack of resources, other than people, and a bribe, "fee" or other extortion attempt every time a new official is encountered, and a rampant lack of responsibility.

More aid to Africa is, IMHO, only going to line the pockets of a few and in the end, create more starving Africans. I do not think anything AFRICOM does is going to change that.

TR
Generally speaking you’re correct and the world shares your opinion with good reason. Africa has consistently demonstrated the incapacity to stabilize volatile situations on its own. My optimism is based on the unprecedented progress that AFRICOM has made in the last twelve months alone, which really isn't much of a measuring stick. But my personal experience tells me that Africa today is definitely not the Africa I first visited 22 years ago. This is more of an indictment of just how bad things were then, more so than an endorsement of how much progress has been made since. But AFRICOM, for better or worse, is forcing change. The United States finally has a real presence on the continent that is ready, willing, and able to respond quickly to a humanitarian crisis; and equally willing to be a problem solving partner for some of the more challenging dilemmas facing sub-Sahara Africa, e.g. establishing viable democratic governance while also helping African’s establish their own sustainable security. AFRICOM also brings an unprecedented level of accountability to governments and other groups who, for the first time, have to factor non-traditional consequences of their actions, e.g. the training and equipping of opposition forces. The change is slow, and painful, but it’s happening. The African continent is ripe with insurgencies and corruption, mass killings, and retaliatory justice; but the change is happening. One example, only yesterday, Christian – Muslim violence erupted yet again in Nigeria, but the response this time was measurably different: 93 immediate arrests and the containment of what likely could have erupted into a regional conflict only two years ago. Instead the Nigerian government downplayed the religious undertones as “isolated” and was able to make quick arrests. Incidents like this are still a common occurrence in Africa today, but what’s different is how governments are responding to them. While there’s a long, long way to go, there is, in fact, a growing sense of law and order, accountability, and importantly – hope for the future.

A friend of mind told me that during a safety briefing he received in 1989 upon first arriving in central Africa, he was warned that if he asked a woman to dance, and she said yes, that she was also consenting to sleep with him that night. That’s an interesting mindset and a good example of the cultural challenges the world faces in Africa. The hurdles are enormous. For example, South Africa’s president, Jacob Zuma, recently married his fourth wife and is planning on marrying a fifth later this year, while Bill Clinton was, essentially, impeached for an affair. Marriages as young as eight are common in some areas which is very problematic for westerners. And this too often results in a “hands off” attitude towards Africa which has been a further impediment to progress. But 911 changed all that. We could no longer afford to ignore sun-Saharan Africa, especially with el Qaida generating large amounts of cash by protecting drug cartels. We didn’t have any other choice. I’m probably not alone in thinking that helping Africa achieve democracy and ending senseless violence is a noble cause, especially if it comes with the added bonus of combating piracy and terrorism. While tasked primarily with humanitarian and diplomatic missions, we can’t deny the military significance of AFRICOM. Routine humanitarian assistance teams don’t normally have “special” operators running interference, but these aren’t routine times we’re living in. When I was a kid my grandfather used to take me fishing. He was a commercial fisherman and we used gill nets. Sometimes a fish would be so hopelessly tangled that I wanted to cut the net. I would give up out of frustration. He would patiently tell me to “work until you find daylight, son”. I did (I didn’t have any other choice with him sitting there), and it worked every time. I'm hopeful that AFRICOM will be a little like my grandfather sitting there watching me work; and with terrorism being what it is today, we really don’t have a lot of choice. I can definitely see your point, but I guess the bright side is that we have rapid response boots on the ground in case we need them.
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Old 03-08-2010, 17:24   #4
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KLB - a few questions.

Do you think Africa is better off now than it was 60 years ago?

Do you think Africa is doing a better job feeding it's people now than it did 60 years ago?

But we can change all that?
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Old 03-09-2010, 00:09   #5
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Is Africa Better Off Now Than It Was 60 Years Ago?

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KLB - a few questions.

Do you think Africa is better off now than it was 60 years ago?

Do you think Africa is doing a better job feeding it's people now than it did 60 years ago?

But we can change all that?

Q. Do you think Africa is better off now than it was 60 years ago?

I think that depends largely on who you ask. For example, the indigenous South African population would say they’re better off because apartheid is over, at any cost; even though South Africa is in worse shape economically now than it was before, and 20 million people are mired in poverty. But generally speaking it’s an easy question to answer. Without a doubt, Sub Saharan Africa is better off today than it was in 1940. And African demographics are rapidly changing. Demographic change is what fueled the Asian economic explosion. Africa’s population has eclipsed the 1 billion mark and will reach 2 billion by 2050. That will make it the most populous continent on earth. It’s a question of who is positioned to capitalize on this growth. As Africa’s economic significance increases, its strategic importance will increase also. A better question might be: Can the United States afford to ignore Africa? What happens if China establishes a multi-faceted command on the African continent, or the Russians? I think an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure and the stakes are enormous.

In terms of infrastructure alone, in spite of daunting funding gaps that hinder growth and very real problems with the four crucial sectors – water, energy, transportation, and ICT; Africa is still better off today than it was in 1940. For example, between 1992 and 2005, private sector investment in ICT infrastructure exceeded $20 billion. The number of African cell phone users increased from around 10 million in 2000 to more than 180 million in 2007. This doesn’t mean there aren’t extensively primitive conditions which hinder future growth, there are. Nevertheless, the urban growth is still significantly more advanced than it was in 1940. I think too often that the world visualizes Africans as tribal and primitive. And while this is true in some cases, much of Africa’s population is urban, and many of the cities are modern and progressive. The picture that comes to the minds of many Americans is misleading. Corrupt countries and humanitarian disasters, e.g. entire countries starving, mass genocide, etc. These don’t reflect the true picture. Africa is a big, big place. It comprises approximately 20% of the earth’s land surface. For example, just because there are primitive conditions in some parts of Mexico and Central America doesn’t mean that the United States is equally primitive by comparison; but this sort of stereotyping of Africans is prevalent in North America and in many parts of Europe.

Another example are the death rates in Africa which have fallen dramatically since 1940. Africa has also shaken off many of the reigns of colonialism, a shift which actually worked to Europe’s economic advantage until recently because the renegotiation of independence treaties in the 1950’s left newly independent African nations indebted to the point of being economically controlled by European powers for all practical intent and purpose.

Q. Do you think Africa is doing a better job feeding its people now than it did 60 years ago?

Absolutely, and with a billion mouths to feed it’s a daunting challenge. But advances in farming technologies and food packaging have helped greatly. Alternatively, if you had asked me if Africa was doing a better job feeding its people today than it was 25 years ago, I would have said no. But conditions are slowly changing. Rogue governments, while actually reflecting the minority, have a disproportionate effect on Africa as a whole. But this is one area where AFRICOM has already made a measurable impact. There’s no question that Africa has the natural resources to feed its people. African countries first need to be committed to good governance which is one of the primary AFRICOM missions. Some sources feel that Africa is on track to meet a MDG goal of eradicating hunger and poverty by 2025. I think this is a bit optimistic, but according to Dr Fitigu Tadesse, Vice President of The Hunger Project (THP), Africa could produce enough food to feed its people and even export some to other parts of the world, and could also meet the 2015 MDG timeline objectives to feed its people in spite of the global financial crisis. But the question was specific to 1940 and so I’ll limit the scope of my answer. But I’ll qualify it by saying there are fortunes to be made in Africa and a US presence is vital to the stability of the continent, the success of democratization efforts, and the establishment of the good governance needed to sustainably feed the African people.


Q. But we can change all that?

I’m not sure what “all that” is. But I think our mission is to steer the change where we can, and to be a positive influence. I think a stable Africa is of vital importance to the United States and I believe that AFRICOM is a step in the right direction. While there are no easy answers, I personally like the idea of having a staging ground to fight terrorists and pirates. I cringe when I read about a country paying a ransom for the return of one of their own ships and cargo. The main point of this thread was to suggest that AFRICOM’s mission should formally be expanded to include combating Somalia-based piracy. I took advantage of the opportunity to voice my support for AFRICOM and to recognize some of its first accomplishments. Africa has huge problems, but not hopeless problems. The stakes are high, the rewards are great, and I’d like to beat some of the competition to the punch.
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Old 03-09-2010, 00:51   #6
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Entire post.
KLB,

If you would, please consider answering some additional questions.
  • Does it make sense to refer constantly to the whole of Africa? You start off discussing Africa in terms of geographic regions, but your discussion of Africans suggests a degree of homogeneity.
  • Are all parts of the continent of geostrategic interest to the United States?
    • What happens if a substantial portions of Africa (both geographically and demographically) are beyond America's present ability to assist/support/help?
    • Should we focus on realistic ends today before we find we have insufficient means tomorrow?
  • How would a focus on piracy based in Somalia translate into success throughout the region, if not the entire continent?
    • Is piracy a regional issue or a global one?
  • How do you see AFRICOM performing this task?
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Old 03-09-2010, 05:55   #7
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KLB

I will disagree with just about everything in your post.

One of the great problems with "black" Africa, and to a smaller concern with "brown" Africa, was that the boundaries were laid down in straight lines disreguarding tribal concerns. A tribal majority in one country can be a tribal minority in the next.

That has been a huge problem since the colonial powers departed.

Large portions of Africa exist on subsistance level farming where weather and conficts can destroy a years worth of food. Low protein diets are the norm.

Countries that exported food because of high tech farming? How many in the 1960s? How many now?

Aid to Africa lines the pockets of the ruling force while the people suffer.

Another 400 were killed in Nigeria just a couple of days ago. Men, women and kids. Not in the news - who cares.

Pirates?

Want to stop the Pirates? Kill them. Easy solution. Because of the UN, right now there is no down side to being a pirate. Get caught trying to board a ship? For the most part your guns are taken and you are sent on your way. No worry - the next ships ransom will buy a lot of AKs.
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Old 03-09-2010, 10:04   #8
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KLB's Answer

Questions and Answers

If you would, please consider answering some additional questions.
Does it make sense to refer constantly to the whole of Africa? You start off discussing Africa in terms of geographic regions, but your discussion of Africans suggests a degree of homogeneity.


No it doesn’t, which is why I shifted the focus more to Sub Saharan Africa as the discussion evolved.

Are all parts of the continent of geostrategic interest to the United States?

Absolutely.

What happens if a substantial portions of Africa (both geographically and demographically) are beyond America's present ability to assist/support/help?

We do what we can. Just because we can’t help a particular group in a specific situation doesn’t mean we should abandon the mission as a whole. This sort of thing will happen on a regular basis. It happens all the time

Should we focus on realistic ends today before we find we have insufficient means tomorrow?

I don’t think the focus is only on the ends or the means. I think we’re attempting to accomplish AFRICOM objectives while continuously evaluating successes and failures as priorities shift, which they inevitably will.

How would a focus on piracy based in Somalia translate into success throughout the region, if not the entire continent?

Piracy shouldn’t be the only measuring stick for success or failure of AFRICOM’s objectives . It’s one problem that needs to be addressed.

Is piracy a regional issue or a global one?

It’s become a global problem and the world should share in the eradication effort.

How do you see AFRICOM performing this task?

Point and shoot.
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KLB

I will disagree with just about everything in your post.

One of the great problems with "black" Africa, and to a smaller concern with "brown" Africa, was that the boundaries were laid down in straight lines disreguarding tribal concerns. A tribal majority in one country can be a tribal minority in the next.

That has been a huge problem since the colonial powers departed.


Which boundaries are you referring to? Independence treaties were largely renegotiated in the 1950’s. Ethnic overlap isn't exclusive to Africa.

Large portions of Africa exist on subsistance level farming where weather and conficts can destroy a years worth of food. Low protein diets are the norm.

Most Africans live in urban settings. AFRICOM is tasked with helping to establish good governance to help resolve regional conflicts. In terms of food production, Africa should be self sufficient in 15 years. Some reports suggest they’re ahead of schedule. The biggest problem is infrastructure.


Countries that exported food because of high tech farming? How many in the 1960s? How many now?

What Dr. Tadesse said was that Africa could export food to other countries, not that it was occurring now or that it ever has. The question was whether Africa was better off now or 60 years ago. To my knowledge, food exportation has occurred in either timeframe.

Aid to Africa lines the pockets of the ruling force while the people suffer.

This is true in some cases but we need to be careful not to judge 53 African nations by the actions of the minority.

Another 400 were killed in Nigeria just a couple of days ago. Men, women and kids. Not in the news - who cares.

I alluded to this massacre in my second post: “One example, only yesterday, Christian – Muslim violence erupted yet again in Nigeria, but the response this time was measurably different: 93 immediate arrests and the containment of what likely could have erupted into a regional conflict only two years ago”.

Pirates?

Want to stop the Pirates? Kill them. Easy solution. Because of the UN, right now there is no down side to being a pirate. Get caught trying to board a ship? For the most part your guns are taken and you are sent on your way. No worry - the next ships ransom will buy a lot of AKs.


We agree on this point. Absolutely. My solution, in a nut shell, point and shoot.
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Old 03-09-2010, 10:32   #9
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".....One of the great problems with "black" Africa, and to a smaller concern with "brown" Africa, was that the boundaries were laid down in straight lines disreguarding tribal concerns. A tribal majority in one country can be a tribal minority in the next.

That has been a huge problem since the colonial powers departed.

Which boundaries are you referring to? Independence treaties were largely renegotiated in the 1950’s. Ethnic overlap isn't exclusive to Africa......."

If you missed that there is no way we can have a conversation about Africa.
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Old 03-09-2010, 11:16   #10
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Boundaries

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".....One of the great problems with "black" Africa, and to a smaller concern with "brown" Africa, was that the boundaries were laid down in straight lines disreguarding tribal concerns. A tribal majority in one country can be a tribal minority in the next.

That has been a huge problem since the colonial powers departed.

Which boundaries are you referring to? Independence treaties were largely renegotiated in the 1950’s. Ethnic overlap isn't exclusive to Africa......."

If you missed that there is no way we can have a conversation about Africa.
I'm asking you to specifically identify the boundaries you're referring to so I can address the statement. You were kind of vague there, Pete. I really started this thread to suggest that AFRICOM should go after Somalia pirates. It's ironic that the piracy issue seems to be the one thing we agree on.

This thread has taken on a life of its own, but hey, if we all agreed with each other it would be a colorless world.
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Old 03-09-2010, 11:45   #11
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Language, Cultural and Tribal

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I'm asking you to specifically identify the boundaries you're referring to so I can address the statement. .......

Language, Cultural and Tribal

A great place to start is with the Bantu peoples, their languages, different cultures and tribal groupings.

The Zulu are a Bantu people but have been known to be a bit prickly at times - and they know it.
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Old 03-09-2010, 16:11   #12
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This is a good discussion. IIRC, the premise of AFRICOM is indirect, working by, with and through Africans to help them build their indigenous capacity.

Given long history of imperialism, there was resistance to putting foreign bases and/or US mil on the continent. None of the AF countries were willing to host AFRICOM HQ, that is why it's in Germany or Italy or wherever in Europe it is.

JTF-HOA is a good model. Interagency effort, indirect approach. USCG train and equip Kenyans and Yemenis. Somalia doesn't have a functioning government, or a half way decent war lord, to work with.

I think PACOM picks up at the waterline and covers stuff in the Gulf of Aden if they care to. Could be wrong on that.

Piracy off the coast of Somalia is like shoplifting, not a major threat to US national interests. If they start conducting military ops like attack on USS Cole, then we have a problem.

At the same time, there are a lot of resources. DRC has vast mineral resources, Nigeria and maybe some others have oil. Chinese are diving right in, regardless of human rights or governance issues. US needs to establish relationships with AF players to keep the lines open in the event of contingencies. Right now, most AF countries object to any US mil ops on the continent or in their waters.

It's all about building partner capacity, not directly taking on AF challenges.
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Old 03-11-2010, 03:13   #13
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2 billion by 2050

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Q. Do you think Africa is better off now than it was 60 years ago?

I think that depends largely on who you ask. For example, the indigenous South African population would say they’re better off because apartheid is over, at any cost; even though South Africa is in worse shape economically now than it was before, and 20 million people are mired in poverty. But generally speaking it’s an easy question to answer. Without a doubt, Sub Saharan Africa is better off today than it was in 1940. And African demographics are rapidly changing. Demographic change is what fueled the Asian economic explosion. Africa’s population has eclipsed the 1 billion mark and will reach 2 billion by 2050. That will make it the most populous continent on earth. It’s a question of who is positioned to capitalize on this growth. As Africa’s economic significance increases, its strategic importance will increase also. A better question might be: Can the United States afford to ignore Africa? What happens if China establishes a multi-faceted command on the African continent, or the Russians? I think an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure and the stakes are enormous.

In terms of infrastructure alone, in spite of daunting funding gaps that hinder growth and very real problems with the four crucial sectors – water, energy, transportation, and ICT; Africa is still better off today than it was in 1940. For example, between 1992 and 2005, private sector investment in ICT infrastructure exceeded $20 billion. The number of African cell phone users increased from around 10 million in 2000 to more than 180 million in 2007. This doesn’t mean there aren’t extensively primitive conditions which hinder future growth, there are. Nevertheless, the urban growth is still significantly more advanced than it was in 1940. I think too often that the world visualizes Africans as tribal and primitive. And while this is true in some cases, much of Africa’s population is urban, and many of the cities are modern and progressive. The picture that comes to the minds of many Americans is misleading. Corrupt countries and humanitarian disasters, e.g. entire countries starving, mass genocide, etc. These don’t reflect the true picture. Africa is a big, big place. It comprises approximately 20% of the earth’s land surface. For example, just because there are primitive conditions in some parts of Mexico and Central America doesn’t mean that the United States is equally primitive by comparison; but this sort of stereotyping of Africans is prevalent in North America and in many parts of Europe.

Another example are the death rates in Africa which have fallen dramatically since 1940. Africa has also shaken off many of the reigns of colonialism, a shift which actually worked to Europe’s economic advantage until recently because the renegotiation of independence treaties in the 1950’s left newly independent African nations indebted to the point of being economically controlled by European powers for all practical intent and purpose.

Q. Do you think Africa is doing a better job feeding its people now than it did 60 years ago?

Absolutely, and with a billion mouths to feed it’s a daunting challenge. But advances in farming technologies and food packaging have helped greatly. Alternatively, if you had asked me if Africa was doing a better job feeding its people today than it was 25 years ago, I would have said no. But conditions are slowly changing. Rogue governments, while actually reflecting the minority, have a disproportionate effect on Africa as a whole. But this is one area where AFRICOM has already made a measurable impact. There’s no question that Africa has the natural resources to feed its people. African countries first need to be committed to good governance which is one of the primary AFRICOM missions. Some sources feel that Africa is on track to meet a MDG goal of eradicating hunger and poverty by 2025. I think this is a bit optimistic, but according to Dr Fitigu Tadesse, Vice President of The Hunger Project (THP), Africa could produce enough food to feed its people and even export some to other parts of the world, and could also meet the 2015 MDG timeline objectives to feed its people in spite of the global financial crisis. But the question was specific to 1940 and so I’ll limit the scope of my answer. But I’ll qualify it by saying there are fortunes to be made in Africa and a US presence is vital to the stability of the continent, the success of democratization efforts, and the establishment of the good governance needed to sustainably feed the African people.


Q. But we can change all that?

I’m not sure what “all that” is. But I think our mission is to steer the change where we can, and to be a positive influence. I think a stable Africa is of vital importance to the United States and I believe that AFRICOM is a step in the right direction. While there are no easy answers, I personally like the idea of having a staging ground to fight terrorists and pirates. I cringe when I read about a country paying a ransom for the return of one of their own ships and cargo. The main point of this thread was to suggest that AFRICOM’s mission should formally be expanded to include combating Somalia-based piracy. I took advantage of the opportunity to voice my support for AFRICOM and to recognize some of its first accomplishments. Africa has huge problems, but not hopeless problems. The stakes are high, the rewards are great, and I’d like to beat some of the competition to the punch.

KLB:

This is a very thought provoking thread. You clearly are an optimist and I hope your long term views pan out.


I will not argue that Africa is better off now versus 60 years ago. However Africa with a population of 2 billion people is an upcoming disaster of epic proportions. True, population growth has played a large role in Asia’s rise to economic power. However to draw the same conclusions with Africa would be a mistake. China has taken many draconian measures to achieve their economic prominence. A top down process, this was only possible due to centralized government mandates. Africa is light years away from having the sort of sovereign cohesion and stability needed to implement these types of strategies. And if they did, I do not believe the average African possesses the required attitude of sacrificing everything personal for the foreseeable future so the nation can benefit.

Africa has large reserves of natural resources. Without these, imagine what our African foreign policy would be. As it is, area instability has been very advantages to the industrialized world. What is the economic driver that will change the current system of exploitation? Even you state that the real worry is whether Russia or China beats us to the punch. In these economic times it would be a tough sell for Washington to make meaningful investments in Africa. Unfortunately, in Washington, the short term view usually wins. That leaves large corporations to drive change on the ground. Greed versus ethical responsibility, good luck with that.

With that in mind the real question is:
If your company was planning an expansion in the next 5 years, would you seriously consider locating to Sub Sahara Africa? Do the labor and other cost savings really outweigh the risk of investment? Risks that include local corruption, changing regimes, an uneducated workforce, religious turmoil and piracy. Until the answer is yes sustainable change will not arrive.

Self sufficiently feeding 1 billion Africans by 2025 is a noble goal. Maybe even achievable. But what about the additional 1 billion souls you mention coming online. Lack of potable water is already a nightmare in many African countries. Add another 1 billion thirsty people? Ouch!



I foresee an ever increasing role for the SF soldier on the African continent.

JMO

LHC

Last edited by Last hard class; 03-11-2010 at 04:15.
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Old 03-12-2010, 10:00   #14
Pete
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Food? Did someone mention food?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Last hard class View Post
.......Self sufficiently feeding 1 billion Africans by 2025 is a noble goal. Maybe even achievable. But what about the additional 1 billion souls you mention coming online. Lack of potable water is already a nightmare in many African countries. Add another 1 billion thirsty people? .....
Soups on - well just about.

I think the title of the story is a little over the top - should be more along the lines of "waste not want not"

"We apologise for these images but they speak more eloquently than any politician of the plight of Zimbabwe's starving people."

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worl...#ixzz0hyjOpB1d


"...For us it is a saddening sight - a magnificent bull elephant struck down in his old age.
But for the starving of Zimbabwe, it was little short of a miracle......"
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Old 03-12-2010, 12:04   #15
Marina
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French & EU NAVFOR seize 35 pirates, motherships

Good job for the EU. I didn't know France had a navy.

EU Naval Force Somalia - Operation Atalanta acts in accordance with UN Security Council resolutions. The military operation was launched in December for one year. It has the following objectives:
  • The protection of World Food Programme (WFP) vessels delivering food aid to displaced persons in Somalia.
  • The protection of vulnerable vessels sailing in the Gulf of Aden and off the Somali coast.
  • Employ the necessary measures, including the use of force, to deter, prevent and intervene in order to bring to an end acts of piracy and armed robbery which may be committed in the areas where they are present.
Operation Atlanta consists of units from Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Spain and Sweden. Contributions from third countries such as Norway are participating as well. Also, a number of Cypriot, Irish, Maltese and Finnish military personnel supplement the team at the Northwood Operation Headquarters.

Cdr. Herb Carmen, USN Best Defense pirates columnist

In my last post, I wrote about the EU's expanding mission against piracy near Somalia. Well, quite impressively, EU NAVFOR wasted no time in taking action. Since Thursday's post, the French frigate Nivose has seized 35 pirates, four motherships, and six skiffs. This is good news because the fight against piracy hinges on international willingness to take action. What the French intend to do with the captured pirates has not yet been made clear, but what is clear is that there are 35 less pirates on the seas and, as Bryan McGrath has described it, 35 "empty chairs at the dinner table."

That's not to suggest this is a battle of attrition. By capturing pirates, EU NAVFOR took away the reward 35 pirates had hoped for and replaced it with confinement. The capture of dozens of pirates sends a message to pirates ashore that the risk-reward equation has changed.

Nivose's success over the last week is really just the beginning of a long fight that requires operational stamina and determination. It's far too soon to tell whether ramped up counter piracy efforts will be disincentive enough to discourage future pirate attacks. In fact, we will likely see more attempted attacks over a greater expanse of ocean in the weeks ahead. The monsoon season has passed, which means that the seas will be calmer and more conducive to pirate attacks, including the "swarm tactics" that the Chinese naval contingent apparently witnessed a few weeks ago. Just last week, the Norwegian oil tanker, UBT Ocean, was hijacked off of Madagascar, much farther south than most previous attacks.

The opportunity for pirates to gain millions of dollars from the capture of merchant vessels will endure, despite the best efforts of international navies. Reports are that pirates continue to receive multi-million dollar ransoms, including $5 million for the release of a chemical tanker Friday and $3 million for the release of a Thai fishing vessel Sunday. Even if the ransoms doubled tomorrow, the payments will still just be a fraction of a percentage of the total value of shipping through the Gulf of Aden. Also, as seen in the actions of over one quarter of the merchant vessels sailing in the region today, shippers are willing to more than double their chances of being hijacked (from 1 in 500 to 1 in 200) by ignoring best practices in an effort to save tens of thousands of dollars of operating costs and days of sailing time. As long as insurance companies continue to reimburse shippers for ransom payments and shippers are willing to risk hijacking, the pirates will still have potentially rewarding targets of opportunity.

In attacks on targets of opportunity, pirates will likely become more and more hostile in the face of resistance. Over the last 6 years, pirates have gradually become more violent at sea. In 2004, just seven ships were fired up on the region. In 2009, there were 114 such attacks. Expect a spike in violence at sea as pirates find hijacking ships increasingly difficult. As pirates get squeezed, the "market" will determine whether they wish to sustain a calculated level of success -- which may be financially less than what they see today -- or risk raising the level of violence to a point that further tilts the balance of international will against them. This is the season that pirates will test those waters.
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