Economic impact of COVID-19

[Old Dog New Trick]

Originally Posted by Trapper John

Sorry! JP Morgan sent this to me and apparently I can't share it

Happy or sad?

I’ve lost a third of my retirement portfolio in the last three weeks and can’t afford to take what’s left out. Either all gone or all in for the recovery. Less than three years to forced retirement.

I’m pretty well diversified but damn!

[cbtengr]

Originally Posted by Old Dog New Trick

Happy or sad?

I’ve lost a third of my retirement portfolio in the last three weeks and can’t afford to take what’s left out. Either all gone or all in for the recovery. Less than three years to forced retirement.

I’m pretty well diversified but damn!

I am down 10% since this all started, earlier today I had actually got a little of it back. When it took the last big dump I called my financial guy to see about getting my money in a less volatile risk. He stated if that was what I wanted to do then he did not want me as a client. I kind of looked at as when is enough enough I was happy with the total I had. He calmed me down and explained how it would ll come back and he was right. Prior to the latest calamity I had drawn an allowance for 3.5 years and was still up 60k. I have been able to stash the bulk of my retirement earnings so if this does not continue for too long I am sure I will be ok. I certainly wish everyone the best.

[Trapper John]

Originally Posted by Old Dog New Trick

Happy or sad?

I’ve lost a third of my retirement portfolio in the last three weeks and can’t afford to take what’s left out. Either all gone or all in for the recovery. Less than three years to forced retirement.

I’m pretty well diversified but damn!

Congress critters are going to get their shiite together., the Fed is acting. Medical therapeutic interventions are around the corner. The infection curve may be flattening. America will be back in business shortly. The economy will come roaring back. Your losses will be temporary, so hold on and hang in there Brother!

[Airbornelawyer]

Originally Posted by cbtengr

I am down 10% since this all started, earlier today I had actually got a little of it back. When it took the last big dump I called my financial guy to see about getting my money in a less volatile risk. He stated if that was what I wanted to do then he did not want me as a client. I kind of looked at as when is enough enough I was happy with the total I had. He calmed me down and explained how it would ll come back and he was right. Prior to the latest calamity I had drawn an allowance for 3.5 years and was still up 60k. I have been able to stash the bulk of my retirement earnings so if this does not continue for too long I am sure I will be ok. I certainly wish everyone the best.

My only regret is I do not have any cash handy to start buying when I feel the time is right. I do have clients to advise buying for, but I am still waiting for the right entry point.

In 2009, I did have cash, and did well, but frankly anyone could have made money given the way the Fed was goosing the market. There are some investments I would avoid this time around, no matter how good an opportunity they might seem, though. Among these are companies most at risk of bankruptcy and needing a government bailout, since the terms of the bankruptcy/bailout will likely eliminate equity holders interests (see the GM bailout of 2008/09). Cruise lines and maybe airlines would be a high risk gamble, and the longer this "social distancing" persists, other businesses dependent on bringing in customers, like restaurant chains and casinos, would also be at increasing risk.

[Last hard class]

The market: Cause & Effect and the psychology of fear

Our President has just learned the same hard lesson every President in my lifetime has learned. They don't control the stock market. To some extent the market losses are a referendum on the Admin's response to this pandemic. I personally believe the country is more important than the 2% we are trying to save. That being said, I find the reactions to date to be perfectly normal.


Because there hasn't been a plan.


I don't want to mince words here. IMO The president didn't just stumble out of the gate, his flopper got caught in his zipper while starting to go. I don't believe for a second that we had to destroy the economy the way we have.

Now:
This week our leader got his act together. And the VP looked absolutely presidential. I can see the beginnings of a plan taking shape. From there we will be able to see past the dire numbers. This is very good news because very soon people are going to be more scared about their economic future than the future of their health.

Regarding equities:
If you are down then you rise with the boat. If you have some side money to gamble I would suggest its time to start your homework on individual stocks. That doesn't imply the market won't drop another 5000 points. Just that I am comfortable that it will rise to at least this level (20) fairly quickly. Getting back to (29) may require more patience. Depends on the stimulus. Until now, Trump has measured the size of his political johnson by the Dow Jones number. So there's that. There is still a huge question of liquidity to be answered. So pick your horses carefully, not all of them will finish the race. One place I would start is with insider buying trends.

Remember this, the market is forward looking. If you wait until it sees the plan, you may well have missed some of the best buying opportunities since 2008.


LHC

[PSM]

One thing I haven't seen mentioned anywhere (but I'm in my bunker so there's that) is that DJT enterprises has taken a BIG hit, too. One thing that I'd like to see him (his proxies) do is offer one or more of his hotels as emergency bed space if needed in NYC. Take the lead on the other side of the problem and show the way.

[JJ_BPK]

Originally Posted by PSM

One thing I haven't seen mentioned anywhere (but I'm in my bunker so there's that) is that DJT enterprises has taken a BIG hit, too. One thing that I'd like to see him (his proxies) do is offer one or more of his hotels as emergency bed space if needed in NYC. Take the lead on the other side of the problem and show the way.

I like the idea, but think that retrofitting hotel air handler systems would be prohibitive. Add carpet removal, retro food services, and the need for ICU level areas.

https://www.ashrae.org/file%20librar...facilities.pdf

I would like to see the military set up MASH units wherever needed. I'm sure the ones we had in Nam with 50yrs of upgrades are a lot easier to establish.

A couple of pictures of the 45th and 24th EVAC. The 45th was a MASH and consisted of a series of blow-up huts.

“Are you a surgeon?” He replies, “No, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.”

[1stindoor]

I'm trying to stick to the belief that it's all imaginary money until I sell or start taking it out. I'm only 55 so I have a close to 5 years before I'll seriously think about withdrawing from my TSP. I stopped looking at it last week. I firmly believe it will bounce back before I need it.

[JJ_BPK]

Originally Posted by 1stindoor

I'm trying to stick to the belief that it's all imaginary money until I sell or start taking it out. I'm only 55 so I have a close to 5 years before I'll seriously think about withdrawing from my TSP. I stopped looking at it last week. I firmly believe it will bounce back before I need it.

Bounce UP and DOWN

I retired in 97, so this dip is my 4th?? Most take 4-5 yrs to recover and if you are a good picker, maybe quicker.

After the 08 dip, I decided to let Schwab do the picking and my handler does a good job. Not as radical as I was, but much safer.

Currently down 26%, it's better than most, I just try to be calm.

[Trapper John]

My advisor contacts at JP Morgan and Goldman are saying that there is ~$2T between them ready to be deployed in strategic buying. Combine that with the Fed's capital injection and what appears to be congressional relief (finally) it looks like everything is coming together to super-charge the economy one we are open for business again ~2 more weeks IMO.

POTUS stumbled out of the gate (no surprise all things considered) but he has put together an excellent team of advisors and was able to get in front of the Covid-19 pandemic before our healthcare system was overwhelmed and collapsed. That was the first hurdle that could have plunged us into depression if not navigated properly.

We probably have another 2 weeks of this before we have passed the peak.

POTUS is turning his attention to economic recovery where he excels IMO

Look for actions on trade and reclaiming supply chains. This is a real opportunity to solidify American global economic dominance. Everything else flows from there. I don't think this opportunity will be lost on POTUS,

[Pete]

Originally Posted by Trapper John

We probably have another 2 weeks of this before we have passed the peak.

POTUS is turning his attention to economic recovery where he excels IMO

Agree - two weeks and we are out of the tunnel and into daylight.

Everywhere the virus trends will be down except the large hives of humanity.

Containment will shift to wack a mole as outcrops break out here and there.

[Old Dog New Trick]

I don’t know about the specific materials used but a good entrepreneur in the cotton belt or rust belt would do well to find a building and workforce and begin making all sorts of PPE with a “Made In The USA” tag. And I don’t just mean in the short time...



BTW, I’ll be fine, my 401k with work was just a slice of my retirement benefits and as long as I live cash payments will rule.

[Old Dog New Trick]

Originally Posted by Pete

Agree - two weeks and we are out of the tunnel and into daylight.

Everywhere the virus trends will be down except the large hives of humanity.

Containment will shift to wack a mole as outcrops break out here and there.

Testing and education will be key!

Even if a treatment is found with high percentage of success this disease will continue to wreak havoc on pulmonary compromised patients and the elderly for quite some time.

[1stindoor]

Originally Posted by Old Dog New Trick

BTW, I’ll be fine, my 401k with work was just a slice of my retirement benefits and as long as I live cash payments will rule.

Same here, my TSP is only a very small slice. I have my mil retirement, VA, and current gub'ment job (that has a retirement plan).

[PSM]

Originally Posted by JJ_BPK

I like the idea, but think that retrofitting hotel air handler systems would be prohibitive. Add carpet removal, retro food services, and the need for ICU level areas.

It's already in the works:

https://twitter.com/USArmy/status/1241440439380488194