Pandemic Flu

[InTheBlack]

What do we know about countering the course of this virus? Similar or not to what was discussed years ago - Statins, ACE inhibitors... ? What should we plan on acquiring quickly if this goes badly?

[Badger52]

Originally Posted by Last hard class

They are screening everyone at LAX arriving from Wuhan area but not if you had a layover somewhere else.

I don't (and won't) travel commercial air anymore but what constitutes "screening" these days? There are a CONEX full of things that someone can have, answer "No" to the question of "Do you have a fever?" and be otherwise asymptomatic for a couple weeks.

[tonyz]

Originally Posted by InTheBlack

What should we plan on acquiring quickly if this goes badly?

Shovels and lime.

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by InTheBlack

What do we know about countering the course of this virus? Similar or not to what was discussed years ago - Statins, ACE inhibitors... ? What should we plan on acquiring quickly if this goes badly?

Entry into cells is via angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptors. ACE2 inhibitors are speculated to help. Speculation.

Some epidemiologists outside China are now calculating R0 (R naught) up to 6. (For perspective, measles R0 is 12-19.). The stats are beyond me.

Fever looks to be the only reliable early symptom. Later, dry cough. No sniffles. Vomiting and diarrhea are rare. There are documented asymptomatic cases. So, highly contagious and sometimes asymptomatic. Challenging to contain.

Deaths are due to acute respiratory distress syndrome—ARDS—mediated by cytokine cascade. Remarkably similar to pandemic flu.

Genetic drift analysis indicates this started in November. There’s constant gene sequencing looking for mutation. Mutation could make it more or less dangerous.

Primary source is bats, where it circulates asymptomatically. The secondary source is some other unknown species from which the first human was infected.

Fatality rate may be much lower than it appears from official sources because there are probably tens of thousands of mild/moderate/asymptomatic cases. But then again, there are accusations that China is hiding accurate fatality stats. So...the numerator and denominator are both in doubt. Nobody knows. Well, maybe Xi knows.

Genetic analysis and diagnostic test development are moving at stunning speed as compared to even five years ago.

IMO, social distancing, barring divine intervention, will be the only viable strategy. From the epidemiological standpoint this genie is out of the bottle and will play out like the Australian wildfires...it will burn through the available fuel before it’s over, at least in China.

[mugwump]

If you want to slog through the Twitterverse, @IntelCrab is getting primary tweets out of China and is passing on the Weibo reports (the Chinese Twitter) that they can glean before they’re taken down by censors.

Some of the HCW tweets are heartrending. They’re speculating 100,000 infections just in Hunan.

Videos of highways blocked with rubble, bridges barricaded, angry reports that 900,000 “privileged” and party members leaving by train in violation of quarantine, city scenes with bodies in the streets, nurses collapsing with coughing fits...

[mugwump]

Mods delete if I’m violating house rules; I haven’t posted for quite a while and have lost touch.

Below is representative. Make sure your speaker is on and that you tap the tweet and activate the speaker icon there. There’s debate whether this is legit or agitprop. It’s consistent with other reports and if it isn’t legit she deserves an Oscar.

While it’s easy to slag the Chinese govt, this is exactly what we’d see in a US hospital. Matter of fact, it would be worse here because our supply chains for medical products start in Hunan and Guangdong provinces. I’m guessing our just-in-time is going to segue into too-late.

Does anyone imagine the Chinese will continue shipment of hospital supplies to the US if their own citizens are dying wholesale?

https://twitter.com/wise_lol/status/1221057629109334016

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by Badger52

I don't (and won't) travel commercial air anymore but what constitutes "screening" these days? There are a CONEX full of things that someone can have, answer "No" to the question of "Do you have a fever?" and be otherwise asymptomatic for a couple weeks.

$8 remote infrared sensor guns. Nobody asks. At least in Chicago from what I’m told. It’s worth a try but unlikely to work as there are afebrile, asymptomatic cases.

[mugwump]

Cytokine storm. No wonder she was sobbing...

https://twitter.com/postapocalyptr/s...018065921?s=20

[mugwump]

It seems some think Chinese cities are third world shitholes packed with tenements. Yeah, nah. Maybe it's squalid in the countryside, dunno never been, but not in the first and second tier cities of which there are hundreds. Transportation, infrastructure, public buildings, apartments, parks...all top notch. When I flew back to the States from Shenzhen it’s Chicago that suffered in comparison.

Don’t kid yourself that we're better prepared

[mugwump]

Concrete, practical advice on avoiding infection from Laurie Garrett. You must read this in a computer browser, not iOS on a mobile device, in order to 'X' out of the paywall dialog. Pass it on.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/25...-safety-china/

[EricV]

Originally Posted by mugwump

It seems some think Chinese cities are third world shitholes packed with tenements. Yeah, nah. Maybe it's squalid in the countryside, dunno never been, but not in the first and second tier cities of which there are hundreds. Transportation, infrastructure, public buildings, apartments, parks...all top notch. When I flew back to the States from Shenzhen it’s Chicago that suffered in comparison.

Don’t kid yourself that we're better prepared

It would appear that Chinese hygiene is pretty lacking in spite of top notch cities...

https://www.xxxxxxx.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM

Many thanks for the input on this situation.

[mugwump]

Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible sustained global spread

Wuhan coronavirus: China was warned in 2017 that a deadly virus could escape its level 4 biohazard lab

Every bit of new data is bad: 15% fatality rate, R0 of 3.5-4, 14 day asymptomatic incubation period where the patient is infectious. Why golly, it almost seems engineered.

Wait...what’s that building 7 miles from the wet market that was announced as ground zero? Is it...is it China’s premier biocontainment (biowarfare?) research facility?

I’m sure it’s just a coincidence.

[mugwump]

Universities must be considered acute danger points given the 14 day infectious and asymptomatic incubation period and academics' frequent travel to China.

Confirmed cases at UCLA and ASU

[mugwump]

Q: What disease goes best with coronavirus?

[mugwump]

A: Lyme disease