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Old 10-28-2014, 15:37   #46
Sdiver
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Well, we're not firing up the stogies or popping champagne corks just yet ...

But we do have the cigars loaded in a humidor and the champagne is being chilled.

http://www.redstate.com/2014/10/28/c...colorado-dems/

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Old 10-28-2014, 16:18   #47
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But MR2 is getting soused in the corner - whoopee!
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Old 10-28-2014, 16:28   #48
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You all don't use the same voting machine supplier out there as Mary-land or Rahm-land, right?
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Old 10-28-2014, 17:03   #49
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First half

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marlboro View Post
Pete, here is you a study:http://publicreligion.org/research/2...values-survey/


Read this for further information on the connectivity:http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00HTQ31TA?btkr=1

Feel free to message me, I'd be more than happy to discuss this topic at length. Unfortunately, I don't check the message board regularly.
The first half of your story deals with "l" libertarians. The second half with "L" Libertarians.

You should know the difference because that story does not back up your claim. Keep digging.

Remember - You are looking for stats saying a good number of D's jump over past the R's to vote for L's.
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Old 11-03-2014, 13:16   #50
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Hypocrisy, thy name is Daivd Schanzer.

Not surprisingly, the New York Times ran an opinion piece yesterday by a Professor at Duke University, David Schanzer, co-authored by one of his students, entitled "Cancel the Midterms" - http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/03/op...f=opinion&_r=1

They argue
Quote:
"There was a time when midterm elections made sense ... . But especially at a time when Americans’ confidence in the ability of their government to address pressing concerns is at a record low, two-year House terms no longer make any sense. We should get rid of federal midterm elections entirely."
I am sure that in 1986 when Democrats recaptured the Senate and in 2006 when Democrats took both houses of Congress, the New York Times was a big advocate for getting rid of midterms. Just as Democrats hate the filibuster when they control the Senate, Democrats hated debt ceiling increases when there was a Republican president, Democrats denounced the so-called "Imperial presidency" when it wasn't their Emperor Barack I, etc.

Please note that any of these arguments might have some merit, and many Republican politicians have been equally hypocritical when the issue disfavored them. But just as an argument may have more merit when you are arguing against your own interest, it appears to have less merit when you only advance the argument when it benefits you.

Among Schanzer's concerns is all the money in politics:
Quote:
"Much of this money is sought from either highly partisan wealthy individuals or entities with vested interests before Congress. Eliminating midterms would double the amount of time House members could focus on governing and make them less dependent on their donor base.

Another quirk is that, during midterm elections, the electorate has been whiter, wealthier, older and more educated than during presidential elections."
Also:
Quote:
"To offset the impact of longer congressional terms, this reform might be coupled with term limits that would cap an individual’s total congressional service at, say, 24 years, about the average for a member of Congress today."
Shocklingly enough, Prof. Schanzer is whiter, wealthier, older and more educated than the typical North Carolina voter (OK, maybe that counts as an argument against interest). Also partisan.

Schanzer is quite the expert on long-serving congresscritters. He was from 1996-98 counsel to Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (35 years in the Senate, and technically still there as Senate President), from 1994-96 counsel to Sen. William S. Cohen (24 years in Congress, and only left because Clinton appointed him Secretary of Defense), and from 2003-05 Democratic staff director for the House Committee on Homeland Security (whose ranking Democrat member at the time was Ben Cardin, now 27 years in Congress and counting). And according to Opensecrets.org, this opponent of midterms has given $1,500 this midterm election cycle to the campaign of Rep. David Price (D-NC), who if he wins reelection will begin his 25th year in Congress next year.

Again, does anyone believe the New York Times would have run such a piece the Sunday before a midterm expected to go the Democrats' way?

Edit to add: Overall, Schanzer has given $4450 to Price's campaigns since he's been at Duke. He also gave $1000 to the Gore campaign, $2000 to the Kerry campaign and $5875 to Obama's campaigns. So he is an expert on money in politics from highly partisan individuals.

Last edited by Airbornelawyer; 11-03-2014 at 13:26.
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Old 11-03-2014, 15:46   #51
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Good breakdown of the article; and a flare on the hypocrisy from some who sit in the High Church of Academia, as well as industry magnates who forgot their roots & that they really wanted .gov out of their lives so they had some maneuver room when they were entrepreneurs (before the word was in vogue). That he calls for term limits (something with which I agree) after the veiled divisive remarks preceding it is laughable.

Seems like he's trying to posture a point that makes things convenient for those elected; not to improve the ability of The People to toss a recalcitrant bum out on their ear if needed - and sooner rather than later. Problem identification is always dependent upon who you ask to define it.

[Off-topic rant] Too much of the electorate is still treating this as a new app, or fantasy league, or reality show - who's raised the most money, who's ahead in the polls (thanx socially-diseased media for doubling down on the electronic mutual-admiration concept), who will "win" the "game"... "and what do you mean I have to get off my couch in order to influence the outcome? Yo, I got a pizza comin'!"[/OTR]
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Old 11-03-2014, 16:29   #52
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Mid Terms

"...Another quirk is that, during midterm elections, the electorate has been whiter, wealthier, older and more educated than during presidential elections. ..."

I'd say right there that he's calling out the LEV (Low Information Voter) and didn't know it.

So the LEV's are the only ones qualified to decide who wins?
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Old 11-04-2014, 20:38   #53
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OK, I have never been able to figure this part out. Can someone please explain it to me? I look here at the attached image and see Dick Durbin (D-IL) losing by 13,500 votes at 45%-50% with 8% of the vote in and yet they have called the race with Durbin as the winner. How do they call this race that early with Durbin trailing? I get that they "expect" certain areas to vote a certain way. What happens if they don't vote that way, but the other candidate already conceded based on the race being called?

Further up the same attachment there is a race that is called for the guy that is behind by 9% with 24% of the vote counted.

I just don't understand this "calling the race" thing and could use an explanation if anyone has one. I've googled nearly every time I see this inverted win and have never found a good explanation for it.
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File Type: jpg votes.jpg (118.8 KB, 14 views)
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Old 11-04-2014, 20:46   #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by (1VB)compforce View Post
OK, I have never been able to figure this part out. Can someone please explain it to me? I look here at the attached image and see Dick Durbin (D-IL) losing by 13,500 votes at 45%-50% with 8% of the vote in and yet they have called the race with Durbin as the winner. How do they call this race that early with Durbin trailing? I get that they "expect" certain areas to vote a certain way. What happens if they don't vote that way, but the other candidate already conceded based on the race being called?

Further up the same attachment there is a race that is called for the guy that is behind by 9% with 24% of the vote counted.

I just don't understand this "calling the race" thing and could use an explanation if anyone has one. I've googled nearly every time I see this inverted win and have never found a good explanation for it.
Exit polling.

They know that if it is eventually going to be a run-away, even if the first few returns favor the other candidate, they call it.

TR
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Old 11-04-2014, 20:55   #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Reaper View Post
Exit polling.

They know that if it is eventually going to be a run-away, even if the first few returns favor the other candidate, they call it.

TR

I seem to recall the MSM had Al Gore leading the exiting polling, they called it for Gore and then they all were burned in the stretch by Bush2.....Al conceded, then reneged his concession and we ended up with weeks of 'Hanging Chads'.
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Old 11-04-2014, 21:04   #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Reaper View Post
Exit polling.

They know that if it is eventually going to be a run-away, even if the first few returns favor the other candidate, they call it.

TR
OK, so what happens if the exit polls are wrong and a candidate has conceded based on the race being called?

If a candidate had a last second swarm of voters and outran the other after the race had been called based on exit polls, would the candidate actually win regardless of the race having been called? (I truly hope so)

You know, in more than 25 years of voting I've never actually seen an exit poll being taken. To me they seem somewhat like the original white elephant.
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Old 11-04-2014, 21:10   #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by (1VB)compforce View Post
OK, so what happens if the exit polls are wrong and a candidate has conceded based on the race being called?

If a candidate had a last second swarm of voters and outran the other after the race had been called based on exit polls, would the candidate actually win regardless of the race having been called? (I truly hope so)

You know, in more than 25 years of voting I've never actually seen an exit poll being taken. To me they seem somewhat like the original white elephant.
He asked why they did it, not if I agreed with it.

Watch the hundreds of races and let me know how often that happens.

TR
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De Oppresso Liber 01/20/2025
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Old 11-04-2014, 21:19   #58
(1VB)compforce
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Reaper View Post
He asked why they did it, not if I agreed with it.

Watch the hundreds of races and let me know how often that happens.

TR
I do appreciate the explanation TR. I'm just trying to understand how it works. I'll do some more reading now that you've given me a track to run on. Sometimes it's tough to find information if you have no starting place and don't know the terminology. (Or know the terms but not their relevance)

Thanks again.
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Old 11-04-2014, 21:33   #59
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Old Days

Call it at 50%

Back in the old days here in Fayetteville we had a radio personality from 640 AM, Jeff Thompson.

He and his usual D guest would be on the radio live on election night.

As they would explain it - it's not who's ahead now with 50% of the vote in but what precincts were still out.

If the D is ahead with 50% of the vote counted and the big D precincts haven't come in yet - yeah, you can call him the winner.

Right now Tillis is ahead of Hagan 49% to 47% - up by 50,000 votes - but Meklenburg County only has 52% of the vote in and right now they are at 103K for Hagan and 65K for Tillis.
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Old 11-04-2014, 22:34   #60
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NC is called for Tillis, so we are looking at 7 pickups for the Repubs tonight.

Add LA when the runoff is done for +8.

Alaska will take time to collect and count, could be +9.

Looks like a big win for Repub governors as well.

TR
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De Oppresso Liber 01/20/2025
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