Pandemic Flu

[Trapper John]

InTheBlack

.........Tamiflu to reduce the rate of infection, so fewer pre-symptomatic infected people will get away from the containment zone.

Tamiflu has no effect on the infectivity of patients and no effect as compared to an OTC cold treatment like advil cold and flu. Governments around the world, including the US, have spent billions of $'s for a false sense of security. [see attachment in post #907]

[InTheBlack]

>I wonder if there's been any high level discussion on diverting some TSA resources away from preventing kinetic events towards the prevention of biological/viral events?

The question is, do they make a really cool looking Retention Level 3 holster for a microscope? :0

TSA is staffed by ex-cops & military; I don't think "scientist" is anywhere close to what their corporate culture will allow inside.

Trapper J-- "Infectivity of patients" is not what I mean. I'm asking if taking Tamiflu gives me an increased chance of not getting infected in the first place.

[Trapper John]

Originally Posted by InTheBlack

>

Trapper J-- "Infectivity of patients" is not what I mean. I'm asking if taking Tamiflu gives me an increased chance of not getting infected in the first place.

No effective prophylaxis, none, na da, nyet.

[Trapper John]

A new biologic has shown promise to prevent MERS-CoV infection in vitro.

http://www.dddmag.com/news/2014/05/b...65529&type=cta

Hemispherx Biopharma announced that one of its advanced stage biological products, Alferon N, significantly inhibited the replication of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) virus in vitro.

[PedOncoDoc]

Originally Posted by Trapper John

InTheBlack

Tamiflu has no effect on the infectivity of patients and no effect as compared to an OTC cold treatment like advil cold and flu. Governments around the world, including the US, have spent billions of $'s for a false sense of security. [see attachment in post #907]

But what of its use in immunocompromised patients?

[Trapper John]

Originally Posted by PedOncoDoc

But what of its use in immunocompromised patients?

Interesting point there DOC I haven't read any clinical studies with immunocompromised patients. Have you? Send me a citation if you have, I'd like to read it.

BTW, I have a paper to send you that I need your opinion. I have been thinking about GVH (see I do pay attention, at least sometimes ). I think there may be a connection to what we are working on and once I can come up for air here, I will send you the paper and my thoughts.

TJ <over>

[Pete]

Interesting Update on the H5 series

Bird flu outbreak hits Nebraska poultry farm: USDA

http://news.yahoo.com/bird-flu-outbr...7--sector.html

"Reuters) - The fast-spreading avian flu virus was confirmed for the first time in Nebraska, at a commercial egg-laying farm that housed a flock of 1.7 million chickens, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday.

The case in Dixon County, Nebraska, brings the number of states affected by the outbreak to 16, and the U.S. tally of birds that have either died or will be killed to 32 million.

The U.S. poultry and egg industry has been grappling for months with the biggest outbreak on record of avian influenza in the United States...."

[tonyz]

Perhaps a bit of sensational journalism ?

But, there was some good discussion in the past on this topic and the possibilities in the Pandemic and Be Prepared threads.

DISEASE X’ FEARS Terrifying new strain of bird flu that kills over a THIRD of those who contract it discovered in China amid fears of new global pandemic
The newly formed virus, named H7N9, has killed over 600 people in China
By Mark Hodge
Sun
15th June 2018, 3:19 pm Updated: 15th June 2018, 7:08 pm

A NEW strain of deadly bird flu which kills 38 per cent of those infected and could spark a global pandemic has been identified in China.

Scientists around the world believe the new pathogen, dubbed “Disease X”, could be as lethal as 1918 Spanish flu which killed up to 100million people.

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, deputy chief medical officer for England, told The Telegraph that virus H7N9, which is circulating poultry in China, could cause a global outbreak.

He said: “[H7N9] is an example of another virus which has proven its ability to transmit from birds to humans.

“It’s possible that it could be the cause of the next pandemic.”

In China, the deadly pathogen has killed 623 of the 1,625 people which have been infected.

While the virus cannot yet be passed from person to person, experts believe it is only three mutations away from being able to spread from human contact.

The symptoms of H7N9 include a high fever, cough and shortness of breath which can then develop into pneumonia.

Once the disease has developed, those infected develop acute respiratory distress syndrome, septic shock and organ failure.

Older people, pregnant women and those with existing health problems are most at risk, according to the World Health Organization.

Bird flu can spread to people when they have direct contact with the infection.

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/new...obal-pandemic/

CDC:

Asian Lineage Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Virus
Background

Human infections with an Asian lineage avian influenza A (H7N9) virus (“Asian H7N9”) were first reported in China in March 2013. Annual epidemics of sporadic human infections with Asian H7N9 viruses in China have been reported since that time. China is currently experiencing its 6th epidemic of Asian H7N9 human infections. Since October 1, 2017, there has been only 1 reported human infection.

During the fifth epidemic, from October 1, 2016 through September 30, 2017, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported 766 human infections with Asian H7N9 virus, making it the largest H7N9 epidemic to date. As of December 7, 2017, the total cumulative number of human infections with Asian lineage H7N9 reported by WHO since 2013 is 1565. During epidemics one through five, about 39 percent of people confirmed with Asian H7N9 virus infection died.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/h7n9-virus.htm

[eramnes]

I have been following this story as well since it showed up on Drudge a couple days ago. Looks like something to keep an eye on.

While the virus cannot yet be passed from person to person, experts believe it is only three mutations away from being able to spread from human contact.

I would love to see the actual report from their "experts", since I can't seem to find a reference to this anywhere. Three mutations is awfully specific, although I am not an epidemiologist.

That being said, during the last major outbreak of H7N9 in 2016, even the WHO did not rule out possible H2H transmission, albeit in very limited cases:

There were two clusters reported in the fifth epidemic from Jiangsu and Anhui provinces, and limited human-to-human transmission between two individuals cannot be ruled out. Although the genetic markers of mammalian adaptation and antiviral resistance of virus strains that were isolated in the fifth epidemic remained similar to earlier epidemics.

http://ojs.wpro.who.int/ojs/index.ph...e/view/521/733

H7N9 appears to be responsive to Tamiflu but this only reduces the severity of the infection, it doesn't cure it:

Laboratory testing shows that influenza antiviral medicines called neuraminidase inhibitors (e.g. oseltamivir, zanamivir) are effective against H7N9 but another class of antivirals, the adamantanes, are not. Among people with H7N9 infection in China, some of those who received early treatment with neuraminidase inhibitors have developed milder illness than those treated later on.

http://www.who.int/influenza/human_a...e/faq_H7N9/en/

I haven't boarded up the windows yet but it's worth keeping an eye on, especially if there has been limited H2H transmission. I don't know that any organization has that answer right now. It will be worth watching what FAO says in their upcoming June 27th report: http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/progra...on_update.html

[Penn]

H1N1 Swine Flu - iirc correctly, swine virus is the most dangerous for humans transference
The youth had travelled to Isreal, the virus, according to the article attacked her organs, the article also states the virus has mutated A-H1N1

https://www.foxnews.com/health/texas...th-trip-israel

[mugwump]

Howdy all, it’s been a while. Might as well put this here even though the Hunan coronavirus — 2019-nCoV is the legit name — is not an influenza virus.

First things first. I'm not involved in any vaccine efforts this time...don’t know if anyone is yet...so I have zero inside info. All I have is public sources.

Ro, the number of new infections you can expect from each case, is currently estimated to be 1.7 to 2.5. WHO is at the low end and Imperial College in London is the higher. If it is 2.0 or higher, and that seems possible from the doubling of cases and deaths we seem to be seeing day to day, then that’s...not optimal. One guy passes it to two others, each of those passing it on to two others, each...well you get the drift. Geometric progression. There are reports of two super-shedders: Typhoid Mary individuals who shed extraordinary numbers of viruses and who are extraordinarily infectious. The concern is this might be a feature of the virus.

China is saying the virus has currently passed through four generations, others say six. Healthcare workers are contracting the disease. People are posting videos of HCWs collapsing in the ER. China says from exhaustion. Who knows. Gutsy folk either way.

Lethality is a total guess. Deaths are fairly easy to count but nobody knows how many mild cases are out there, or even if there are mild cases, and until you know the denominator you can’t calculate the butcher's bill. So, an unknown.

From what I’ve seen China is much better prepared for this than the West. People collapsing in the street are being placed in disposable isolation tubes for transport to the hospital. I don’t even know if those exist in the US.

Read between the lines. WHO is conservative in not calling a pandemic emergency but they are terribly worried about medical supply chains as 90% of the world's drugs come from China and SE Asia. They don’t want to cause a panic and kill a bunch of people from lack of medicine. I want my MTV—and my lisinopril.

Rock. Hard place.

China seems about a week late; hopefully not a dollar short. I honestly think the top wants to show the world they can be the good guys but their hierarchical lower ranks didn’t get the word until last week. They seem to be cooperating with world health depts and are sharing isolates. Their travel bans and quarantine measures have been stringent, especially given the impact on the economy with the lunar new year and all.

For even handed reporting search CIDRAP. Anything from US science journalist Laurie Garrett can be taken to the bank.

Over and out.

[Last hard class]

Snakes to humans? I saw The first known case has hit the northwest. CNY starts this week and I suspect is going to send this everywhere.

They are screening everyone at LAX arriving from Wuhan area but not if you had a layover somewhere else.


I’m skeptical we will contain this.


LHC

[bblhead672]

Apparently screening at DFW as well, according to a friend who works at a lab that is involved with the testing.

[EricV]

From the tube that must not be mentioned...

https://www.xxxxxxx.com/watch?v=VLp8CHeKQkI

[Golf1echo]

Originally Posted by EricV

From the tube that must not be mentioned...

https://www.xxxxxxx.com/watch?v=VLp8CHeKQkI

I’ve been curious about “The Mandate of Heaven” mentioned in the video. It used to be when the Yellow River flooded and many died the Emperor was killed...as a mandate. While much has changed and Xi Jinping insisted on greater powers before taking office it makes one wonder about the evolutions China has in it’s future... Sustainable ? Would we continue to trade (food, medicine, merchandise, etc...) with a country in the midst of a highly contagious pandemic? Given that much of the population has moved from the country to concentrated cities with sub standard living conditions, questionable sanitation, and little influence on the Communists Party they and most likely everyone else will certainly have a challenge.